As a long time shareholder I’m voting against Elon’s pay package and against the two board members up for reelection; Kimbal and James Murdoch.
I’m very concerned about Elon’s apparent decision to cancel/postpone the lower cost “Model 2” in favor of introducing the “robotaxi” on August 8th and then presumably starting to sell it next year.
There are so many obstacles to fully autonomous cars that are beyond Teslas control. The regulatory barriers are enormous. So far Cruise and Waymo have failed. Their trials in SF and Arizona have been under very restricted conditions in limited areas at slow speeds and in SF in off hours. And I do not consider those trials to be a success. Governments are not willing to risk the lives of their citizens by giving driverless cars the right to use public roads. Here’s the latest example
BC makes Level 3/4/5 autonomous driving systems illegal, for now
The other obstacle is public acceptance; people are not clamoring for robotaxis and I think the vast majority of people will not entrust their lives to a driverless car. There are also big practical obstacles to the idea of individuals buying a robotaxi and trying to make money off of it. How does it charge autonomously during the day? The owner is going to have to monitor it constantly or at least frequently. Are anonymous people going to vandalize it just out of spite? Would not surprise me in the least in America.
I don’t think Tesla is going to make any significant money in the near future selling FSD. I have had two FSD V13 demo drives in my neighbors Y and while it amazes me it also makes errors in ideal driving conditions; minimal traffic and clear skies. It will get better of course and my neighbor loves it but I’m not convinced it will ever reach Level 5.
What will drive sales is a significantly less costly Tesla. And if Elon has decided that Tesla cannot compete on price against BYD and other Chinese companies than I think Tesla will plateau or shrink, not grow, despite the energy storage and solar business. The solar roof tiles are definitely not a success and the Semi is far behind schedule.
Elon is making too many strategic mistakes. He gets diverted by trying to solve engineering problems that don’t need solving; X Falcon Wing doors, stainless steel bodied trucks, and now robotaxis. And his purchase of Twitter was a massive mistake and arguably a violation of his fiduciary duty to Tesla, taking up too much of his time when he was already spread thin.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but if after the Model S Elon had skipped the X and focused on the 3 and then the Y, and then a cheaper Model 2 hatchback style I think Tesla would be on a strong growth trajectory. Forget the $250K sport cars and the crazy pickup truck designs. I love the CT engineering achievements but the vehicle took too long to bring to market, didn’t nearly meet the previously stated cost and range numbers, and sucked up too many resources.
It is time for a CEO change at Tesla.
