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Tesla auto pilot 2 progress thread

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Draginol, Aug 28, 2017.

  1. Draginol

    Draginol Member

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    There’s been a lot of discussion and speculation on the progress of Tesla Autoplot 2.

    As of August 2017, it still lags far behind Autopilot 1. However, it has been making steady, albeit. Frustratingly slow, progress.

    So where do you think it will be by end of 2017? How about end of next year?

    I want to link you guys to this: Patents by Assignee Mobileye Vision Technologies Ltd. - Justia Patents Search

    It’s a list of MobilEye patents, many of which were granted this Summer. As an AI developer, I have wondered how much of the slow progress has been due to these patents and having to find a different, possibly more difficult, way to implement vision based systems. How hard, for instance, can it be to do pattern recognition for different types of vehicles to display them? I’d say the answer is it depends on the method used, and whether that method has been patented.

    Here are my predictions:

    I think they’ll achieve near AP1parity by end of this year. I don’t think we’ll get rain sensing, speed limit sign detection, vehicle type identification or showing cars in other lanes but I think general behavior will be pretty close. I think they’ll have to work out a licensing arrangement on patents to get the missing things and patent licensing can be slow.

    I think we will need more specialized hardware (ap2.5) to get to real enhance d autopilot. Not because of raw computing power but because there will be a need to hardware accelerate patent-bypassing methods.

    I think by this time next year we will have the enhanced auto pilot behavior we are hoping for. I don’t think we will see FSD for at least a year after that (2019) but it really depends on patents, not government regulation imo.

    What do you think?
     
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  2. OilSucks

    OilSucks Member

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    I hope you are right. I'm still a little salty on being given a 24 hour test drive with an AP1 car, asking if what I was purchasing was exactly the same as the test drive car, but it turns out I was not getting AP1 and instead getting an AP2 car.

    I really loved seeing the parallel lanes and the related cars being show on the dashboard display. It helped put my mind to ease when engaging TACC and Autosteer and let me know the car was able to 'see' the other cars around me.

    With AP2, I sometimes find the cone sensors not even picking up a car that's drifting into my lane until almost after I over take said car.

    Other than that, AP2 has performed with above average performance peppered in with some pretty jarring and scary experiences:

    1. Driving into the sun, TACC and Autosteer, engaged, it swerved hard to the right without any warning or anybody near me.

    2. Random braking episodes when going under overpasses.

    3. Issues with semitrucks, either getting too close or braking when passing them.

    4. Issues with the map not being updated therefor the AP system slowing the car down to 45 on a freeway.
     
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  3. kdday

    kdday Member

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    I think I was promised a better Web Browser like 9 months ago, so I'm not holding my breath for Jack squat on EAP or FSD at this point.
     
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  4. verygreen

    verygreen Curious member

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    I think you put too much trust into Tesla's respect of IP of other parties.
    If their licensing compliance is of any indication, they don't care at all about such minor details and would do anything, everything to keep their head above the water, consequences be damned (later!).
     
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  5. conman

    conman Member

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    Hang on this doesn't make sense. Current EAP with AP2 hardware does not adjust speed on the fly. You must mean when first engaging TACC it gives you a slow start speed?
     
  6. chillaban

    chillaban Active Member

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    He means the TomTom map "geofencing" issue where on a freeway it may suddenly believe you're off-road or on a crossroad, resulting in a sudden speed limit restriction.

    However, I hate to disappoint the OP, but many of the items pointed out are not uniquely AP2 regressions -- AP1 has had the same kind of issues especially as they've attempted to improve radar usage over time.
     
  7. conman

    conman Member

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    So much to learn. I had no idea it did anything like that as I've never seen it. It could also be region dependent since I'm in .au.
     
  8. chillaban

    chillaban Active Member

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    FWIW I’ve not personally experienced it on AP2 either. Similarly, judging from some of the posts here, I was afraid 2017.28 would try to kill me a few times a day. My experience has been far the opposite and from a road trip and commute point of view AP1 and AP2 have been quite similar.

    It’s probavly worth remembering that not every issue affects every customer.
     
  9. brendon1970

    brendon1970 Member

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    Yes geofencing on invalid data is painful to say the least. There are 110 kph freeway sections north of Coffs Harbour that both TACC and AP2 will simply throw the brakes on without warning. It tends to happen when old roads that no longer exist intercept the new freeway. The car throws up messages "This road is limited to <speed> on autopilot".

    Would love more current mapping data.

    Car is tracking nicely along a freeway according to Google Maps, but the internal Nav is completely lost - generally thinks you're driving offroad.

    Brendon
     
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