Tesla autopilot HW3

[diplomat33]

All I’m saying is that — as expected by anyone who really objectively has followed Tesla for long, but denied by so many here and elsewhere — the concerns that early FSD owners with AP2/2.5 would fall behind were legitimate, as were the concerns that the HW3 retrofit project would be trying and delayed for Tesla, further adding to this legitimate concern.

You are an expert at predicting the obvious.

But, I look for the silver lining: If traffic cones is the first HW3 feature, it means Tesla is starting to roll out HW3 features which means they are one step closer to releasing true "feature complete". And we will get HW3 upgrade when we get it.

 

[diplomat33]

I would add that if HW3 features really are starting to roll out now, then even more reason for Tesla to get serious about doing the HW3 upgrades sooner rather than later. And Tesla has said that mass upgrades are coming "in a few months". Let's wait and see.

 

[chillaban]

If Tesla never upgrades AP2 cars they may only be liable to refund the upgrade price paid to original owners who still posses the car. AP2 would still feel somewhat cheated but the rest of us with newer computers won't care much. So IMO not a lot of risk for Tesla here.

Tesla is clearly managing the risk of FSD on HW3 by defining the FSD "feature set" as the liability goalpost. That is why they will recognize the revenue from the FSD upgrade when they declare "feature set complete".

I don't think they can wash their hands of liability by just refunding FSD purchase price. I am, like the other 3 commenters, an AP1 to AP2.0 upgrader from 2017 and the whole reason I got the new car was because it would be FSD capable one day. The cost I incurred is more the cost of the entire car, not just FSD. Had I known the car had no path to FSD I would've made very different purchase decisions.

 

[mongo]

FYI. That is @electronblue who said that quote you are responding to, not me.

Whoops, sorry about that. Had part of a deleted message at the start. Corrected.

 

[chillaban]

I just wanted to say too, I am actually open to being made whole by a reasonable subsidized trade up to a HW3 car. I know others don't feel that way but the part that annoys me is that Tesla has basically not attempted to do anything other than ignore the AP2.0 situation.

 

[electronblue]

You are an expert at predicting the obvious.

I wish it were obvious, there would be lot less need for posting and ”someone is wrong on the internet” memes.

Look, the reason I pointed this out now that it looks like volume HW3 retrofits are not forthcoming even in Q4/2019 and HW3 features are rolling out without AP2/2.5 equivalents, is that for a lot of people this playing out this way was not ”obvious”. Look back at Reddit, TMC, what have you and you will find tons of people saying these concerns were not valid. I get it that it was likely their misplaced loyalty for Tesla talking, but still it needed to be said the cooler heads looking at Tesla more objectively prevailed.

The concerns were valid and the only remaining question is how much will AP2/2.5 FSD buyers fall behind now. And I guess all the talk of Early Access Program for early FSD buyers can be well and truly be forgotten now...

But, I look for the silver lining

Of course you do, you are expert at looking for and finding the silver lining in anything Tesla does.

 

[diplomat33]

I wish it were obvious, there would be lot less need for posting and ”someone is wrong on the internet” memes.

Look, the reason I pointed this out now that it looks like volume HW3 retrofits are not forthcoming even in Q4/2019 and HW3 features are rolling out without AP2/2.5 equivalents, is that for a lot of people this playing out this way was not ”obvious”. Look back at Reddit, TMC, what have you and you will find tons of people saying these concerns were not valid. I get it that it was likely their misplaced loyalty for Tesla talking, but still it needed to be said the cooler heads looking at Tesla more objectively prevailed.

I don't think we know for sure that volume HW3 retrofits won't happen in Q4 2019. We still got Nov and Dec left. Let's wait and see. But it is certainly possible that it will split to Q1 2020.

But I don't want you to think that I don't care. I do. I totally get where AP2 owners are coming from. If you purchased your AP2 car with FSD in 2016 or even 2017, you've been waiting awhile now for this "FSD" thing. And Tesla tells you your hardware is good enough for FSD. Then, Tesla admits you need a computer upgrade but promises to give it to you for free in order to honor their original FSD promise to you. Now it looks like HW3 features might be coming out and volume retrofits have not started yet. So AP2 owners are duly concerned that they will get passed over and forgotten. I get it.

Of course you do, you are expert at looking for and finding the silver lining in anything Tesla does.

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33 I don’t think it is just AP2 owners. Also AP2.5 owners have been made promises to — and those promises too have been broken. Just in March Tesla promised all of us (you included?) Early Access Program access and failed to deliver even that.

Early FSD buyers (before the price-cuts) is the correct target audience for this point, I’d say, because they made their ”deal” with Tesla under a very different set of circumstances. Especially on Model S/X where the wordings and promises were what they were.

Mind you, I don’t think AP2/2.5 owners will be forgotten. I am saying we are delayed and now it is a waiting game to see how much.

As for ”Not that there’s anything wrong with that”, arguably there is plenty wrong in looking at silver-linings in questionable deeds. Excusing questionable deeds is... questionable.

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33 I don’t think it is just AP2 owners. Also AP2.5 owners have been made promises to — and those promises too have been broken. Just in March Tesla promised all of us (you included?) Early Access Program access and failed to deliver even that.

I got FSD this year during the $2k sale so I don't think the Early Access promise applies to me. But I care for those who it did apply to. AFAIK, the only promise that applies to me is the FSD computer upgrade. And I am waiting for it as patiently as I can.

As for ”Not that there’s anything wrong with that”, arguably there is plenty wrong in looking at silver-linings in questionable deeds. Excusing questionable deeds is... questionable.

I am not excusing questionable deeds. But it is possible to do both, admit when Tesla falls short and see the positive in what they do right, at the same time. And I do think that "keeping it real" means doing both. We need both the "pessimist" who will point out Tesla shortcomings and the "optimist" who will point out the silver linings. So yeah, finding the silver lining in the middle of the negativity is a good thing.

 

[Dutchie]

Not sure how much experience you have with Lidars and snow, but Lidars sends out light and snow reflects light, so Lidars can see snow. Couldn’t find any great video, but here is one:

As for telling snow apart from other things, that is up to a neural network or some other filter to do. With the xyz coordinates and the reflectivity of the detections of the snow there is a lot of signal to pick up, it is not a very different problem than deciding what is road and what is grass.

There is plenty of testing being done on snow:

Driving on snow is a challenge, but it is a challenge for humans also! =)

Sounds like a class action law suit to me if they do this. I spent $46,000 to trade in my S85D for my AP2/MCU1 S90D with FSD.

If Tesla never upgrades AP2 cars they may only be liable to refund the upgrade price paid to original owners who still posses the car. AP2 would still feel somewhat cheated but the rest of us with newer computers won't care much. So IMO not a lot of risk for Tesla here.

Tesla is clearly managing the risk of FSD on HW3 by defining the FSD "feature set" as the liability goalpost. That is why they will recognize the revenue from the FSD upgrade when they declare "feature set complete".

I just wanted to say too, I am actually open to being made whole by a reasonable subsidized trade up to a HW3 car. I know others don't feel that way but the part that annoys me is that Tesla has basically not attempted to do anything other than ignore the AP2.0 situation.

Here we go again. Stop start making these rumours as they will start having a life on its own and you make people uncomfortable. There is absolutely no basis for suggesting that HW2.0 will not get the upgrade. It has been confirmed numorous times by Tesla and Elon.

 

[electronblue]

Here we go again. Stop start making these rumours as they will start having a life on its own and you make people uncomfortable. There is absolutely no basis for suggesting that HW2.0 will not get the upgrade. It has been confirmed numorous times by Tesla and Elon.

While I am also of the opinion that AP2 will get HW3, we must note Elon also promised MCU2 retrofits to MCU1 cars (never happened) as well as Early Access Program invitations to early FSD buyers (never happened). Also there is a very recent service visit where the service advisor was adamant AP2 will not get HW3 even when pressed. Going even further back Tesla promised lighted vanity mirror retrofits to all Model S (never happened) to keep people taking delivery without.

As said, I do think AP2 will get HW3, but it isn’t completely out there as far as history goes to suggest some risk. Another question is how long will it take. One data point is the P100D retrofit that was sold in Q3/2016 to keep people taking delivery of their P90Ds. It took over a year to happen after P100D was released.

 

[electronblue]

We need both the "pessimist" who will point out Tesla shortcomings and the "optimist" who will point out the silver linings. So yeah, finding the silver lining in the middle of the negativity is a good thing.

What we actually need is just a bunch of realists.

 

[mongo]

What we actually need is just a bunch of realists.

In which case we cannot discuss the future as it has not yet been real.
The only ones who could contribute would be pastifists.

 

[electronblue]

In which case we cannot discuss the future as it has not yet been real.
The only ones who could contribute would be pastifists.

I’m not sure the definitions work that way, but I would imagine my point is clear. We don’t need people who look for silver-linings any more than we need people who look for trouble for the sake of looking. That’s spin.

We may all become optimists or pessimists at times, and views on future may and can and should be debated (for the reasons you outline), but we don’t need intentional spin in either direction.

Unfortunately looking for silver-linings can become spin if it is intentional or a modus operandi. Because not everything has — or deserves to have — a silver-lining. So certainly there can be ”something wrong” with looking for them.

 

[chillaban]

Here we go again. Stop start making these rumours as they will start having a life on its own and you make people uncomfortable. There is absolutely no basis for suggesting that HW2.0 will not get the upgrade. It has been confirmed numorous times by Tesla and Elon.

Sorry not all of us share your optimism. There are countless examples of things Tesla and Elon have said numerous times (MCU2 Retrofit and early access program membership for FSD just two recent examples) that have not come true.

Maybe one day there will be AP2 retrofits but right now the kits they are testing are CONFIRMED by service bulletins to only apply to AP2.5. How many more months behind do we think the AP2.0 Kit will be?

 

[brkaus]

I just wanted to say too, I am actually open to being made whole by a reasonable subsidized trade up to a HW3 car. I know others don't feel that way but the part that annoys me is that Tesla has basically not attempted to do anything other than ignore the AP2.0 situation.

I think I would be too, if the numbers were right. But have a hassle with refinancing - self employed.

Is it still possible for an AP2 owner to buy FSD from Tesla? That would complicate things.

 

[Dutchie]

Sorry not all of us share your optimism. There are countless examples of things Tesla and Elon have said numerous times (MCU2 Retrofit and early access program membership for FSD just two recent examples) that have not come true.

Maybe one day there will be AP2 retrofits but right now the kits they are testing are CONFIRMED by service bulletins to only apply to AP2.5. How many more months behind do we think the AP2.0 Kit will be?

My goodness. You cannot compare a MCU2 retrofit to FSD
1. FSD is advertised on the order page since late 2016. MCU2 never was;
2. FSD could be ordered and pre-paid when ordering the car. MCU2 not;
3. FSD can still be ordered if you have a HW2.0 car. Why on earth would Tesla offer that option if they cannot deliver?

As far as the upgrades. I talked about it with service. HW2.5 is just putting in a new computer. Tesla is working on what needs to be changed for HW2.0. It might be also just the computer but it could also be that some camera's and/or radar needs to be changed.

 

[Dutchie]

Is it still possible for an AP2 owner to buy FSD from Tesla?.

Yes

 

[timewasted]

I just wanted to say too, I am actually open to being made whole by a reasonable subsidized trade up to a HW3 car. I know others don't feel that way but the part that annoys me is that Tesla has basically not attempted to do anything other than ignore the AP2.0 situation.

The problem is who gets to define “reasonable”? If it’s Tesla, I’m sure their definition would be something along the lines of “free supercharging for life if you trade in your now-obsolete AP2 vehicle for a shiny new AP3 vehicle”. Whereas my definition would be “I purchased this car for the sole purpose of the FSD feature you advertised on your site, so if my car can’t deliver on that let me know when one that can deliver on it rolls off the line and we’ll swap fobs and call it good”.

I simply want to be made whole, and I truly don’t give any f*cks how much it’ll cost them to do it. Maybe Elon can stop paying people $50k to smear a hero in the press and stop flying his jet 20 miles several times per day long enough to cover the cost of his big lying mouth.

 

[WarpedOne]

I simply want to be made whole, and I truly don’t give any f*cks how much it’ll cost them to do it.

You may want it as much as you wish, this is not how things role.
If Tesla is unable to fulfill your order, they may decide to return the payment or buy back your vehicle.
And you are free to walk away.
You do not get to define the terms, you've already agreed to them when you decided to pay.