Tesla autopilot HW3

[wcorey]

Not doubting you, but could you find where it was said that the price will only increase from here on out? I'm really hoping for a Q2 sale, because otherwise the increasing cost of FSD might outpace my rate of savings.

It would have been in the timeframe when they temporarily dropped the price to $2,000. It might have been an Elon tweet or a Tesla tweet.
To your point, there is the adage "never say never". I cannot see them making it free. They might make the new AP free at some point but FSD...that'll be a cash cow shortly.

 

[favo]

Not doubting you, but could you find where it was said that the price will only increase from here on out? I'm really hoping for a Q2 sale, because otherwise the increasing cost of FSD might outpace my rate of savings.

Elon tweeted about price increases back in April.

 

[wcorey]

Elon tweeted about price increases back in April.

View attachment 408980

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thanks!

 

[CarlK]

Tesla has locked themselves in jail because if new sensors are introduced, many prior owners will be angry at being left behind.

How does that go? Isn't Apple introduce a new iPhone model every year?

If that makes you angry the only solution is not to buy anything until the moment before you die.

 

[Matias]

How does that go? Isn't Apple introduce a new iPhone model every year?

If that makes you angry the only solution is not to buy anything until the moment before you die.

Musk said 2016 that AP2 cars are capable of FSD. So if they would need new hardware (except computer), AP 2.0 cars would not be FSD capable.

 

[CarlK]

Musk said 2016 that AP2 cars are capable of FSD. So if they would need new hardware (except computer), AP 2.0 cars would not be FSD capable.

They will be after getting a free HW3 board upgrade. The post I responded to was talking about HW4 and new sensors. These things will continue to happen to make it to work better. Again Apple will not stop upgrading iPhone cameras because old ones could take picture already. There is nothing for current owners to angry about.

 

[Matias]

They will be after getting a free HW3 board upgrade. The post I responded to was talking about HW4 and new sensors. These things will continue to happen to make it to work better. Again Apple will not stop upgrading iPhone cameras because old ones could take picture already. There is nothing for current owners to angry about.

If AP 2.0 is capable of FSD, how can it get any better after that

SAE autonomy stops at 5, there’s no going to 11.

 

[mongo]

If AP 2.0 is capable of FSD, how can it get any better after that

SAE autonomy stops at 5, there’s no going to 11.

If you had no accidents when you got your driver's license (or learner's permit), is it reasonable to say your driving ability has not improved at all since then?

 

[chillaban]

If AP 2.0 is capable of FSD, how can it get any better after that

SAE autonomy stops at 5, there’s no going to 11.

By not taking cloverleaf on-ramps at 10mph like a grandma when half skilled humans can do it safely at 50?

Driving a 1990 corolla at 45mph with the blinkers on is also fully self driving.

 

[Saghost]

If AP 2.0 is capable of FSD, how can it get any better after that

SAE autonomy stops at 5, there’s no going to 11.

You can go from half as likely to get in an accident as the typical human driver to a tenth as likely to a hundredth as likely...

 

[mongo]

You can go from half as likely to get in an accident as the typical human driver to a tenth as likely to a hundredth as likely...

At some point, all the accidents are unavoidable (under normal driving parameters) and caused by non-FSD cars and environmental sources.

 

[MikeM3D]

I bought my Model 3 with EAP for what it could do when I bought it, not for what it might be able to do in the future. Now it's even better, and I love it for what it does now. Maybe it will get even better and I'll like it even more. But I love it for what it does now. Yesterday driving home from Wailuku with EAP engaged, I had a big smile on my face because it was so much easier and nicer making that drive with EAP than it was with the Prius.

It's not a self-driving car and probably won't ever be. But it is self-driving enough for me, for now. On narrow city streets such as South Kihei Rd. I often disengage AP to avoid an obstacle or give more space to a bicyclist. But it's still better than the dinosaur of a Prius with its 14-year-old technology, which I sold once the 3 got here.

My time scale is today, and this car definitely does not make me miserable.

this opinion presumes you are someone worried about where the updates are. car was amazing on day one, but a lot of drama from folks who feel entitled to more FSD Features because they want them now

 

[CK_Stuggi]

Could we get back to the topic? That would be
Tesla autopilot HW3.
Not the whole FSD/sensors/pricing etc. discussion. There are threads for those already. Is there any news regarding this new hardware, or regarding Teslas promise of upgrades?

 

[MarcG]

Could we get back to the topic? That would be
Tesla autopilot HW3.
Not the whole FSD/sensors/pricing etc. discussion. There are threads for those already. Is there any news regarding this new hardware, or regarding Teslas promise of upgrades?

Yep, 2 pages back in this thread:

Tesla autopilot HW3

 

[daniel]

Musk promised that people who paid for FSD would get FSD. If this requires more sensors, Tesla has a contractual obligation to retrofit the car. Apple never promises that today's phone will have tomorrow's capabilities. Tesla promised exactly that. And I'm sure they will keep that promise for any that are still on the road.

However, not all FSD will be equal. When Tesla is able to make a car FSD, and gets regulatory permission to sell that car, it will most definitely not be as safe as the car that Tesla sells 5 years later with improved everything.

I hold the opinion that in ten years when Tesla builds a car that does not require a driver it, the newest model will perform better than the 2018 cars upgraded with the latest software, because the sensors will be better, and the newest computer will perform better than the barely-capable computer being put in cars now.

I will buy that car then, even though it will cost a lot more, because it will be a better car, than the contractually-required upgrade of a 2018 car with the paid-for FSD package. (Though I'll pay for the FSD package on mine if and when they introduce features I want.)

 

[EVNow]

I hold the opinion that in ten years when Tesla builds a car that does not require a driver it, the newest model will perform better than the 2018 cars upgraded with the latest software, because the sensors will be better, and the newest computer will perform better than the barely-capable computer being put in cars now.

I will buy that car then, even though it will cost a lot more, because it will be a better car, than the contractually-required upgrade of a 2018 car with the paid-for FSD package. (Though I'll pay for the FSD package on mine if and when they introduce features I want.)

Well, if Tesla ever gets to robotaxi level FSD, they will most probably never sell any cars. They will just put the cars to run on their own network. Or if they sell, it will be very expensive - as in $275k for a model 3 type car.

 

[daniel]

Well, if Tesla ever gets to robotaxi level FSD, they will most probably never sell any cars. They will just put the cars to run on their own network. Or if they sell, it will be very expensive - as in $275k for a model 3 type car.

No, Tesla will continue to sell cars. And they won't cost $275K. The first driverless-capable Model 3 will go for around $75K because of required "options." (As in the upgraded interior we had to buy if we wanted a first-production Model 3.) In fact, Tesla won't put any cars on the ride-sharing app itself. It makes far more sense to sell the cars and let owners take the loss. Uber and Lyft drivers barely make back the depreciation on their cars, if that, and driverless ride share won't be able to charge more than those.

 

[ChrML]

I hold the opinion that in ten years when Tesla builds a car that does not require a driver it, the newest model will perform better than the 2018 cars upgraded with the latest software, because the sensors will be better, and the newest computer will perform better than the barely-capable computer being put in cars now.

Obviously a future car with future hardware will drive itself better than any car delivered in 2019. Something else would be really strange and wrong.

Anyone expecting that Tesla will keep iterating the hardware on their 2016 Tesla AP2 after the car can initially drive itself to some extent with the HW3 CPU will be disappointed.

 

[mongo]

Well, if Tesla ever gets to robotaxi level FSD, they will most probably never sell any cars. They will just put the cars to run on their own network. Or if they sell, it will be very expensive - as in $275k for a model 3 type car.

They'll do both.
Some regions won't be covered by TN, and those need converted to sustainable energy too.

Selling cars gets them cash now, TN gets them debt now and cash in the future.
Thus the cashflow (profit?) neutral answer Elon gave, sell cars to make money, use that money to expand robo fleet.
As to car sales price, $275k doesn't work since it prices in all future revenue. It would also be crazy to insure without a 'FSD transfer to new body at normal cost' replacement clause.

 

[Fiver]

Selling cars gets them cash now, TN gets them debt now and cash in the future.

It's like solar. They could spend a ton of money and cover GF1's existing roof in solar. Loads of debt, but in 6-10 years it would pay off and then it's gravy so to speak. The problem is they are a business and wall st wants results every 3 months. Hard to tell stakeholders it's worth that much near term debt even though it will be guaranteed profit down the line.