Tesla autopilot HW3

[mongo]

@mongo Tesla stages most of their deployments. (HW3 priority was mentioned by someone else, I noted there was none.) This time they did not. Just a coincidence? I think not.

As I said, Tesla may not have known the final numbers anyway when they decided to launch — it all adds up to the rush of the final days of the quarter and it seems likely they wanted to make sure.

Mind you I’m not saying launching Smart Summon at the end of the quarter would be only about recognized revenue. It potentially has other benefits from a stock market perspective as well.

Sure, most are staged, but would staging matter for smart summon? Or was it more advantageous to mass release it and get a lot of test data in a short time span before the expected negative reviews came in.

End of quarter was likely on their minds, but I'm not see data that indicated it would have been any better performance wide had t been shifted into Q4.

 

[electronblue]

Sure, most are staged, but would staging matter for smart summon? Or was it more advantageous to mass release it and get a lot of test data in a short time span before the expected negative reviews came in.

End of quarter was likely on their minds, but I'm not see data that indicated it would have been any better performance wide had t been shifted into Q4.

This is a bit of a ”if it looks like a duck” moment for me. Is it more likely Tesla — known for rushing things at the end of quarter for fiscal results — rushed Smart Summon to all for that reason or to ”get a lot of test data before the expected negative reviews came in”...

I know which reasoning feels more contrived to me. Normally Tesla stages even trivial updates over many weeks. Now everyone got it within days — and within Q3.

 

[mongo]

This is a bit of a ”if it looks like a duck” moment for me. Is it more likely Tesla — known for rushing things at the end of quarter for fiscal results — rushed Smart Summon to all for that reason or to ”get a lot of test data before the expected negative reviews came in”...

I know which reasoning feels more contrived to me. Normally Tesla stages even trivial updates over many weeks. Now everyone got it within days — and within Q3.

It was in dev a long time and there were test releases before hand. End of Q3 may have been the hard deadline for something to go out. If it weren't for the last minute, nothing would ever get done.

Nov 1, 2018: "Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air software upgrade, so will work on all cars made in past 2 years (Autopilot hardware V2+)."
May 23: "Smart Summon coming soon!"
April 6: "Tesla Enhanced Summon coming out in US next week for anyone with Enhanced Autopilot or Full Self-Driving option"
July 19: "Agreed. That’s approximately date when we expect Enhanced Summon to be in wide release. It will be magical. Lot of hard work by Autopilot team." Referring to "Cost of Tesla full self-driving option increasing by ~$1000 on August 16"
July 17: "Depends on how release to owners with early access goes, but hopefully wide release by end of August"
Sept 7: "Looking good. Smart summon is almost great. Drive-in theater mode, caraoke & Cuphead are awesome."
Sept 14: "Going to early access (including all who bought FSD) Tesla owners in US next week. If US early access rollout looks good, then rest of world early access owners following week. Might be some delays in EU for regulatory approval."
Sept 19: "No, it’s one integrated release"

 

[electronblue]

Sept 14: "Going to early access (including all who bought FSD) Tesla owners in US next week. If US early access rollout looks good, then rest of world early access owners following week. Might be some delays in EU for regulatory approval."

I would say this is the biggest proof or argument for my point of view yet. Tesla did not follow this plan. No FSD priority, no wide early access or the like, just a rushed delivery to all. Because they were facing the end of the quarter. They did not have time. If the end of quarter did not matter, why not take the time to do it as planned?

If it weren't for the last minute, nothing would ever get done.

I don’t think that is true. After all Tesla could well have released to early acess, early FSD owners etc, seen the feedback, adjusted if needed and staged the rest like they always do. Instead we got it all at once basically, which is rare. End of quarter. 30 million. Good story for the call etc.

 

[Bladerskb]

Had a 3hr drive in really bad rain at the weekend. Overall, very impressed with the car (M3/FSD/32.12.2) - to the point that I felt more comfortable driving with AP on than off. There were a few moments where it handed back to me - mostly when a vehicle cut in front and threw up a lot of spray - and functionality was restricted for a lot of of the trip, in particular blindspot detection.

Checking out the TeslaCam video shows exactly why HW3 will only be L4/5 in good conditions.

Left Cam - seriously affected by vibration and light blooming, no wonder blindspot / lane change was disabled

Main Cam is amazingly clear in comparision, but check out all those hot pixels on the "automotive grade" cam

When AP finally gave up, behaviour was predictable, in that AP suddenly deactivated due to lack of vision. But, AP (main cam) had better vision than I did, so all I could do was slow down and follow the tail lights of the car ahead until visibility improved, at which point AP quickly became available again. Am thinking that warning, slowing down and following tail lights for 5-10 seconds would be a better behaviour from AP (given the extra safety of the radar) whilst handing back a bit more gracefully.

Good research, we need more of this. Hey @verygreen would that view from the Left Cam in that situation be improved if it was the raw video footage from AP?

 

[verygreen]

Good research, we need more of this. Hey @verygreen would that view from the Left Cam in that situation be improved if it was the raw video footage from AP?

repeater cams are affected by rain at night and bleed light like there's no tomorrow you can see plenty of examples of that in my night time footage videos.

Vibration on the other hand is unavoidable though I'd check with SC about this bad one, though it's unclear what part of it is due to some water droplet sitting on the lens and shaking too.

 

[banned-66611]

Nov 1, 2018: "Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air software upgrade, so will work on all cars made in past 2 years (Autopilot hardware V2+)."
May 23: "Smart Summon coming soon!"
April 6: "Tesla Enhanced Summon coming out in US next week for anyone with Enhanced Autopilot or Full Self-Driving option"
July 19: "Agreed. That’s approximately date when we expect Enhanced Summon to be in wide release. It will be magical. Lot of hard work by Autopilot team." Referring to "Cost of Tesla full self-driving option increasing by ~$1000 on August 16"
July 17: "Depends on how release to owners with early access goes, but hopefully wide release by end of August"
Sept 7: "Looking good. Smart summon is almost great. Drive-in theater mode, caraoke & Cuphead are awesome."
Sept 14: "Going to early access (including all who bought FSD) Tesla owners in US next week. If US early access rollout looks good, then rest of world early access owners following week. Might be some delays in EU for regulatory approval."
Sept 19: "No, it’s one integrated release"

This is how Musk operates. Set ridiculous deadlines (robotaxis in 2020!) for "focus minds" in the engineering staff, who then release half baked beta software in the hope of getting their bonuses. Meanwhile Musk is putting on an "Autonomy Day" and telling investors to give him more money because a Model 3 will be worth $500,000 by next year.

I can see some Attorneys General getting interested in this scam at some point. Tesla took money for this feature in 2016, has been slowly downgrading its capabilities ever since, while Musk strings everyone along.

 

[J1mbo]

repeater cams are affected by rain at night and bleed light like there's no tomorrow you can see plenty of examples of that in my night time footage videos.

Vibration on the other hand is unavoidable though I'd check with SC about this bad one, though it's unclear what part of it is due to some water droplet sitting on the lens and shaking too.

Yeah, looking back, this may not be vibration at all, just the result of water running over the lens.

It is an interesting design challenge: putting the lens in the airflow reduces dust build-up at the cost of image fidelity in the rain.

 

[verygreen]

It is an interesting design challenge: putting the lens in the airflow reduces dust build-up at the cost of image fidelity in the rain.

since it never rains in California, the design benefits of this solution are obvious

 

[mongo]

since it never rains in California, the design benefits of this solution are obvious

I'd be safe and warm, if I were in LA.
Tesla pickup dreaming, on such a winter's day.

 

[jebinc]

Looks like it may be starting...

Installing HW3 unit!

 

[am_dmd]

Looks like it may be starting...

Installing HW3 unit!

Several other 2.5 owners have gotten FSD upgrade. When is it starting for AP2?

 

[tyson]

I haven't seen any AP2.5 with MCU1 owners get updated yet... I imagine there will be one or two of those reported prior to any AP2 & MCU1 upgrades

 

[am_dmd]

I haven't seen any AP2.5 with MCU1 owners get updated yet... I imagine there will be one or two of those reported prior to any AP2 & MCU1 upgrades

I am not sure if August 2018 is MCU1 (OP's car) but another poster said AP 2.5 MCU 2 and several others have reported FSD upgrade in another thread. I hope it's MCU1

 

[tyson]

August 2018 would be MCU2. Change happened in March or April.

 

[timewasted]

Almost 72 hours after scheduling my AP3 retrofit (from AP2.0) and they haven’t cancelled the appointment yet. Granted I scheduled it for a week out so they still have plenty of time to do so.

Make me eat my words, Tesla!

 

[Edgewood Dome]

I just want Tesla to come clean with a plan to upgrade the HW2.0 & HW2.5 cars and then stick to it. It also better make the car FSD, not sort of, we were promised the cars had everything necessary for FSD, so DO IT! All of this conjecture is driving me nuts. I feel the need to log into this site weekly hoping to find some nugget of info. I really don't care what it cists them to do the upgrade, it was a promise and I want it kept. Being kept in the dark like this is totally unacceptable.

 

[mt09]

A new presentation by Andrej Karpathy with content on Smart Summon and some insight in combining data from multiple cameras. Pretty interesting to see more detail on the Smart Summon app view.

 

[EVNow]

Looks like it takes about 1.5 hours to upgrade to HW3 and install new software. If they figure out a way to make the software update quicker (may be using USB, instead of download) - they can complete the HW3 upgrade in 30 minutes.

I setup a mobile appointment to fix a leaky rear taillight on my X recently. The Mobile tech installed hw 3 as a "work with". It took him 20 minutes to install the hw3 and an hour to download and install the right software version.​

 

[EVNow]

A new presentation by Andrej Karpathy with content on Smart Summon and some insight in combining data from multiple cameras. Pretty interesting to see more detail on the Smart Summon app view.

Quite a bit of new info.

Looks like they did a lot of work for summon. No wonder it took all that extra time.

Also some explanation about Dojo. New HW for training … is that end-to-end training ?