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green1
Active Member
Basically Tesla has the best currently available autopilot system. Other manufacturers have done demos of better ones, but you can't buy them yet. Other manufacturers also can not update their current fleet to new features, so right now if autopilot is your only requirement, Tesla is the best in the business and no other car will match it.
The other companies may well surpass Tesla soon on that front, a 2017 MB (2016s are already done) may have a better AP than Tesla, but Tesla has more than a year to match it. No guarantee they will, but they have time to try. Additionally, a 2014/2015 Tesla with AP may be upgradeable to the same place MB will be in 2017 (may not be if hardware is needed, but may be able to do it with just software) so there's no guarantee that the competitors will be ahead even then.
I'm not saying that Tesla's system is perfect, or that it will never be beaten, it certainly has fewer sensors than the competition, but based strictly on current ability it is the best.
The other companies may well surpass Tesla soon on that front, a 2017 MB (2016s are already done) may have a better AP than Tesla, but Tesla has more than a year to match it. No guarantee they will, but they have time to try. Additionally, a 2014/2015 Tesla with AP may be upgradeable to the same place MB will be in 2017 (may not be if hardware is needed, but may be able to do it with just software) so there's no guarantee that the competitors will be ahead even then.
I'm not saying that Tesla's system is perfect, or that it will never be beaten, it certainly has fewer sensors than the competition, but based strictly on current ability it is the best.
jeff_adams
Member
Consumers will also remember Tesla for being the "innovator" even though that is not technically true.
That could be true for one instant of time or one particular feature.
But while the next MB update their auto pilot is for the 2017 cars, the only way the 2014,2015 & 2016 MB owners can get those features is to replace the whole car.
That is the real Tesla innovation that people remember and its the Tesla innovation that makes headline news (and should do)
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Although of course Autopilot != Self-driving.
Uber fatality was a self-driving fatality.
Model X fatality was likely operator error.
Uber fatality was a self-driving fatality.
Model X fatality was likely operator error.
I am all for manual driving being enabled on all autonomous vehicles if the driver desires it. They won't be taking my steering wheel away from me when I choose to drive my own self for my own pleasure. If I want to switch to manual mode I better damn well be able to.
sundaymorning
Active Member
For Tesla this should not be a problem, a couple reasons:
First, Tesla gives drivers full autonomy to retake control whenever they wish (unlike the no steering wheel gimmick GM was advertising).
Second, any rule/laws implemented can be updated via OTA by Tesla.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I doubt it will have any impact on Tesla. They already have the camera/radar/sonar in their cars, and EAP/FSD revenue coming in to cover the cost. If the government doesn't allow hands off, they keep AP as-is. If the government allows some form of hands-off, Tesla can just roll an OTA update and make it available on all cars.
The bigger problem will be for all the other guys who are skipping lvl 1/2 and aiming to go directly to lvl 3/4 with more expensive HW like Lidar. Do they put the expensive HW in if they're not sure the government will let them use it? If they don't then they will for sure not have a chance to recoup the R&D cost. If they do, the cost of Lidar could be high so they must charge a high price to recoup the HW cost. If the government only allows lvl 1.5 (hands-on), how much would they be able to charge customers? Tesla has already pretty much capped that price at $5K for EAP, and they could potentially lower it as their in-house AI chip effort starts to pay off. This could squeeze all the competition who are relying on Lidar.
Of course cheaper Lidar technologies for automotive use are in development and could be as soon as a few years away, but if their main use case is suddenly cut off by government regulations, would they still receive the financial backing and production volume to be able to achieve the low cost, and be commercially available soon?
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jeewee3000
Active Member
In the current world, I fully agree.
Imagining a future where all cars have autonomous capability that is guaranteed to be 25x safer than humans, the insurance companies will take the freedom of manual driving away though, simply by making those that want non-autonomous capability pay an exuberant premium.
That way people will "willingly" give up their wish to be able to manually drive. Driving will likely become a thing for enthusiasts and motorsport.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) It only takes one insurance company that charges much less but still makes a good profit to soak up all those who prefer to drive themselves. If it doesn't exist it is easy enough to make one.
2) Once you have powerful enough narrow AI it is easy enough to program a system that allows a driver to do anything he wishes except crash or run off a cliff.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
My main concern is legislators who don't know what they are talking about trying to regulate an industry they don't understand.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
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