Tesla battery swap: Post announcement discussion

[lolachampcar]

So, 30 gallons at 30 mpg is 900 miles and the number on the pump was something like $100 or something like 11.1 cents per mile. If it costs the same as filling up, does this mean you will pay 265 X 11.1 cents or $30 for a swap? As for actually making a payment, I suspect your card will be on file with Tesla and you will be automatically charged each month for the number of swaps you do. People that remove the whole having to unlock, start and otherwise muck with your transportation to actually use it are perfectly capable of applying the toll model to refilling it.

 

[TXjak]

This would also seem to open up some interesting possibilities for battery leasing. Hmmm.

 

[DEinspanjer]

Got the email notification of the video and watched it as soon as I woke up. Right up until I saw the stage with the sub-floor platform, I was still holding out hope that they might be doing a metal-air battery in the frunk.

Yes it is cool tech, but I am deeply disappointed. Even with franchising, it will take a very long time to roll this out to a level it would be as convenient as a (ask) gas station. It sounds like it would be equipped to handle somewhere between 50 and 100 customers in an hour. That seems to me to be less than a gas station.

Were there any details shared about what happens after your 8 year warranty expires?



Sent from my GT-P7510 using Tapatalk HD

 

[highfalutintodd]

Okay, so neat demo. But.... How has no one been screaming about the fact that they did this cool thing and announced absolutely no pertinent details about it?

We don't know how much it will cost to swap a pack or how the payment will work.

We don't know what happens to your original pack.

We don't know if or how they plan on keeping these packs in good working order (will they be refurbishing them occasionally as they degrade under heavy usage?)

We don't know what happens when/if one of these things breaks down mid-swap (though that would seriously suck, and I'm wondering what happens if the screw holes start getting stripped from repeated swapping).

We don't know where they're going to build any of these stations.

Hell, we don't know IF they're going to build any of these stations.

We don't know any sort of rollout schedule.


Tons and tons of annoyingly unanswered questions.


UPDATE:
found a Blooomberg article that has more info (which is also maddening to me - why can't tesla post everything in one place)

Tesla will install the first battery swap stations at Supercharger stations in California from late this year, Musk said. They cost about $500,000, and will initially go into the company’s busiest Supercharger stations, he said.


Each unit will store about 50 battery packs that customers will borrow for the price of an equivalent tank of gasoline, Musk said. Users’ credit cards will be automatically billed, and the loaner packs can be returned to the charging station and replaced with the customer’s own pack, fully charged, he said.
The company is open to eventually licensing its battery swap system to other companies interested in offering a similar service, Musk said.

So this definitely answers some questions, but raises more. Such as, after 50 pack swaps they're simply out of loaner packs until someone decides to return one? Sounds like they simply store the original packs rather than use them as additional loaner packs. So that solves the issue of what happens to "my" pack, but raises the question of what happens when they're out of packs. If user packs became loaner packs then the station could just run indefinitely because it would always have a pack; here, after 50 it's closed for business.

 

[bonnie]

$99? Fine by me. When I have an X in my garage, I will do what I do with the Roadster and charge it at home every night. Most roadtrips, I will use the Supercharger and grab a bite to eat. And on that rare occasion where time is of the essence and I simply don't have half an hour (or the lines are long), I'll swap the battery. So out of maybe 100 equivalent 'fill ups', I'll pay for a battery swap.

Still cheaper than gas overall (if I use it at all) AND gives me one more travel option. And if I'm really lucky, other manufacturers will adopt 'the Tesla way' and make compatible cars and help increase the infrastructure, giving me even more options.

Yay.

 

[Enadler]

This appears to me to be simply a reaction to people who just don't get it! I would much prefer Tesla invest in more superchargers rather than battery swapping. I can't figure out the use case for this. With the new faster chargers that will allow a full charge in under 30 minutes there really is no need for this.

That being said the concept might be useful for urban dwellers who can not charge every night and would rather swap a battery once a week or for a taxi fleet that runs their vehicles 24/7.

 

[bonnie]

Okay, so neat demo. But.... How has no one been screaming about the fact that they did this cool thing and announced absolutely no pertinent details about it?
.
.
.
Tons and tons of annoyingly unanswered questions.

But you didn't buy your car believing you'd have swap capabilities ... so this is a new option. Nothing to scream about since no one should have expected this as part of their buying decision. (And I believe he said you could pick up your original pack on your way home or opt to upgrade.)

I think it's pretty cool. And since I wasn't annoyed at not having it to begin with, I'm fine with the open questions. Those will get answered. They had me at 'supercharging'.

 

[malcolm]

Most owners will be perfectly happy with vanilla or super charging.

This is just about providing another option for those who want it and Tesla is free to respond to different levels of demand in different territories.

Above all, no matter what it costs or how long it takes it will still happen sooner and more cheaply than Hydrogen - which is the real point. I think Elon's goal is to demolish refuelling as an acceptable adjunct to vehicle ownership.

 

[Eberhard]

+1 yes. I don't see the business case.

I am a little concerned about the potential success of this. It is supposed to answer the Joe User doubts, but surely just leaves more questions open.

In an ICE car, 30mpg, 30 gallons gives 900 miles - so swap time is similar to a fill-up but you only charge 1/4 the number of times.

Or, just call me when you have 100,000 of these stations deployed.

The economics of a $500k station is worrying when a gas station can cater to ALL vehicles, but Tesla swap stations only to a few Model S.

Enough negatives! The technology demo was pretty cool

with your gasser, you have always see the gasstation. Even if you dont want/have no time to do it.
But with an BEV, only if there is a need to charge away from home and even then you have the choice between SC and Swapping.

and i dont see, you can do 900miles in the city without refill, but i leave every morning charged to 60% SOC only, because my daily drive is much shorter.

 

[JRP3]

So since the price of swapping is tied to the price of gas, when gas prices rise in the future so will the cost of swapping. Tesla guaranteed increased future income from swapping without ever having to announce a price increase, well played.

 

[Monto]

It sounds to me like the purpose of swappers is more for marketing than for actual use. To speed the transition to EVs among those who are not early adopters, they need to be equal to or better than ICEs in every way. As a practical matter the swappers may get little use as people just choose to wait for a supercharge, but that might not be as important as being able to tell potential buyers the rapid swapping option exists.

You are forgetting that the 60s do not come with supercharging. I chose not to pay the $2000 for it, since when I travel, I fly. I did ask about using the supercharger once for a road trip and paying for it, and the answer is no. This would allow me to take the rare road trip, and at $99, I could take 2000 swaps before it cost the same as buying the supercharger option. If it cost less, even better.

 

[Bobfitz1]

$99? Fine by me. When I have an X in my garage, I will do what I do with the Roadster and charge it at home every night. Most roadtrips, I will use the Supercharger and grab a bite to eat. And on that rare occasion where time is of the essence and I simply don't have half an hour (or the lines are long), I'll swap the battery. So out of maybe 100 equivalent 'fill ups', I'll pay for a battery swap.

Still cheaper than gas overall (if I use it at all) AND gives me one more travel option.

Yay.

I think Bonnie has this right vs those who are moaning about lack of details. Unlike previous major announcements, Elon is just saying 'look' folks, here's one more trick we can execute beautifully that no one else is anywhere close to delivering'. He's put it out and is willing to let it become widespread or just deployed at a handful of Tesla stations as demand for it determines. I also suspect this is yet another sign of Tesla's growing confidence in the tweaked li ion cells they're using in Model S and all the pack tech for ensuring they last a long, long, time.
If a Model S 85Kwh pack in real world use is going to last 10 to 15 years or a few hundred thousand miles, people are likely to stop worrying about whether they get their purchased pack back after doing a swap. Plus Tesla knows that the batteries are just going to inexorably evolve to higher density and cheaper per KWh cost in a ten year time horizon. The big ICE companies are getting increasingly worried they are on the wrong end of a tipping point see-saw. I predict we'll see one or several decide to go Mercedes route and get EV powertrains from Tesla.

 

[highfalutintodd]

But you didn't buy your car believing you'd have swap capabilities ... so this is a new option. Nothing to scream about since no one should have expected this as part of their buying decision. (And I believe he said you could pick up your original pack on your way home or opt to upgrade.)

But I'm not talking about my original expectations. I'm talking about the expectations that Tesla is now explicitly creating in the wake of this announcement. My point is that we don't really know how much of a "new option" this really is since they have released scant few details about it (and the details that are emerging are coming out scattershot through various and sundry articles and interviews). So they want to get people excited about this cool new trick the car can do, great. I'm excited. But I don't really know any more about it than I did a few days ago when Elon tweeted about it.

That's what I don't get. Why go through the trouble of throwing a shindig to announce this thing if you really don't have a lot to announce? It's not like they're under some sort of competitive pressure. This was on their schedule, so why not wait until they could really talk about it. Or until they had the first one up and running? I get wanting to keep the buzz going around Tesla and the model s, but this just seems like a hastily put together event.

- - - Updated - - -

I think Bonnie has this right vs those who are moaning about lack of details.

"Moaning?"

Even though I've only been in the Tesla fold for a few months now, it's obvious that "communication" isn't exactly their strong suit. There are dozens of threads on this forum talking about their "lack of details" in everything from warranty coverage, to ranger service, to service plans, to financing, to options packages, to Slacker radio and on and on and on. Hell, I'm 1,500 miles in on my new Model S and I STILL don't have a clue when I'll have to start paying for the cellular coverage or how much it will cost.

"Lack of details" seems to be Tesla's MO, and I for one think it's high time that that changed. And I don't think that counts as "moaning."

 

[Enadler]

Agreed Bonnie has the right idea as far as typical behavior. What concerns me is that if this is the last choice and used infrequently then Tesla is investing in stations and batteries that would not be fully utilized. I think Tesla would be better served investing in more supercharger bays to minimize/eliminate wait times.That being said if this option can be self supporting financially I am all for it! The more options the better, but if choices need to be made I choose more superchargers.

I think Bonnie has this right vs those who are moaning about lack of details. Unlike previous major announcements, Elon is just saying 'look' folks, here's one more trick we can execute beautifully that no one else is anywhere close to delivering'. He's put it out and is willing to let it become widespread or just deployed at a handful of Tesla stations as demand for it determines. I also suspect this is yet another sign of Tesla's growing confidence in the tweaked li ion cells they're using in Model S and all the pack tech for ensuring they last a long, long, time.
If a Model S 85Kwh pack in real world use is going to last 10 to 15 years or a few hundred thousand miles, people are likely to stop worrying about whether they get their purchased pack back after doing a swap. Plus Tesla knows that the batteries are just going to inexorably evolve to higher density and cheaper per KWh cost in a ten year time horizon. The big ICE companies are getting increasingly worried they are on the wrong end of a tipping point see-saw. I predict we'll see one or several decide to go Mercedes route and get EV powertrains from Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

What data are you looking for? He said how much it will cost, he said how they deal with your battery and your options on keeping the new one, and he said they will build the stations according to demand.

 

[malcolm]

It's not like they're under some sort of competitive pressure.

This is about putting the competition under pressure. Tesla is building a complete and compelling package, pushing even further ahead from the rest of the pack. (Is anyone chasing? Not with any seriousness - most haven't realised that there is a race - Audi recently had a "Hey! Wait a minute" moment but like most manufacturers they have all this expertise and experience so naturally they assume that they know best and that they can always rely on brand loyalty- a fortunate situation for Tesla)

I'm sure Tesla will build swapstations in key regions as a pilot and collect data on utilisation/reliability. In just the same way that you can view the Roadster (and models S and X) as development platforms for Gen III, so these SwapStations are version 1.0. If the demand for them exists, then later versions will be better/smarter, once again putting Tesla ahead of the rest.

For example, I would imagine that the 50 packs stored is an initial design figure based on target costs. If demand is higher they are bound to respond, same as they have responded to cracked windscreens and seat brackets.

Elon didn't exactly hire trolls - these are very smart people*

*except with the third row air-con. They missed that :biggrin:.

 

[adric22]

I'm curious. Doesn't the battery pack also have coolant lines? How is this handled?

 

[mitch672]

The initial plans are only to deploy it on the busiest routes in CA on I5 by the end of the year, then next year to I95 on the east coast, I don't think it's more than 6 locations (total for both coasts, 3 swappers per coast let's guess). That's 3 million plus the cost of 300 battery packs (that they are likely to need for grid buffering anyway).

I don't think the $3-5 million they plan on spending for this is unreasonable to gather data and see how much it's used. It's not going to buy that many more Supercharger locations. The marketing value to the general public, most of whom still don't quite get EVs is valuable, remember Tesla needs to go after the next generation of adopters, they've already captured the "early adopters", they need the next level to keep sales going...

 

[malcolm]

I'm curious. Doesn't the battery pack also have coolant lines? How is this handled?

I have no idea. Does "Solenoid activated hydraulic connectors" sound plausible? (Think Neo getting unplugged from The Matrix - but with less goop/drama)

And as for "undo the bolts and you can steal the pack" I'm sure that there are other interlocks which prevent that (and which would also prevent the pack falling out onto the road if the bolts just happened to work loose.)

 

[Adm]

So, assuming the battery swap station costs $500k...

If the average price of a Model S is $80k and the profit margin is 25% > $16K/Model S

$500k/$16K=31.25

So if Tesla can sell an additional 31 Model S's (or Model X) per swapping station, the initial investement is paid for.