Tesla begins HD map development (collecting short camera videos) as i predicted

[Snuffysasa]

Apparently you are not the only one to misread an Elon musk tweet. I thought the same thing when I first read the tweet, but if you re-read the original tweet and the response and dont try to read into what you want to happen, he is not saying what you think he is saying. What Elon said was that in 3-6 mo, EAP and FSD would "start to differentiate" from each other, not be completed and released to the public. The keyword there being "start", not finish.

Why no radar? Because Elon said, less then 2 weeks ago in the TED talk, that they would use GPS and Vision only for FSD. These are what we call actual facts, directly from one of very few people who actually knows. Could he be lying? I guess. Could they change their minds, sure.

No I read the tweets carefully and I understand it.

He says Users will notice a difference between EAP and FSD. That means there will be something that FSD users will notice, but EAP users will not.

 

[Reciprocity]

1. DGPS is not the same as dual-frequency. Both are more expensive than the cheap ones now in common use principally because accuracy is less important in cars than in some other applications. both are much cheaper than, say, lidar.

2. If NIVIDIA engineers are alleging that "a couple of meters" is the best GPS can do then, yes, I know better than that. I have no idea what their motivations or biases might be.

People, even very accomplished ones, often view things in terms of their established biases. It is that establishment bias that allowed SpaceX to develop reusable rocket stages. It is that that allowed Tesla to use 'laptop cells' to power a long distance BEV.
There is a pretty well developed conventional wisdom about precisely how level 5 autonomy can be achieved. Since it has to yet been done it is safe to assume that some techniques that ease that development will be those which will reduce ad hoc information tracking to the minimum. Nobody knows exactly how that will happen.

Bluntly, statements of absolute certainty about this, or any other, subject are quite likely to make me react badly. When somebody says "I told you so..." that somebody usually has very selective memory. Selective memory is a poor basis for decision making.

You need great GPS to do what Telsa wants to do. You only need to know where you are down to 5-10cm periodically, not for the entire duration of the trip. This can be accomplished with basic GPS and landmarks identified by the vision system. I have always assumed you would need radar as well to get the exact position of the landmark, but I guess that does not matter if you have a high def map that knows exactly where those landmarks are. From there, the rest can be calculated based on telemetry from the car. I dont know if I am using the right word, but what I mean is the direction, speed and data from the cars steering to calculate where you are in relation to the paths that have been discussed here. You would certainly want to update your position on occasion with the same method, but you dont need some high def GPS. You dont really even need complete high def 3d maps either because the area will inevitably change and you cannot rely on it for actual driving. All you would need is some land marks like street signs, stop lights, overpass signs. The paths might change as well, construction zones and cars parked or broken down for example, but you are not relying on the paths for anything more then to determine your position in 3d space and really which lane you are in and what lanes are available. The rest will have to be done with Vision based on what Elon is saying lately.

 

[Reciprocity]

He says Users will notice a difference between EAP and FSD. That means there will be something that FSD users will notice, but EAP users will not.

Believe what you like. Like I said, I thought the same thing until I actually looked at pragmatically and not through the lens of what I wanted to hear. Elon is not what you would call precise when responding to tweets either. Unless you have another source where he clearly states people will notice a difference by July between EAP and FSD. I assume only people who bought FSD?

 

[MP3Mike]

Why do you think FSD will not use radar?

In the latest TED talk Elon said that the demo videos they released of FSD last year only used GPS and cameras, the radar was not being used.

That does not mean that FSD won't use radar, as I think it provides value, like being able to see the car in front of the car in front of you. But that it isn't absolutely necessary.

 

[EV-lutioin]

 

[mitchellh3]

So then this leads me to believe Tesla cannot enable auto lane change, or on/off ramp, until they have HD map of certain highways.
So that means Tesla cannot enable these features until get enough HW2 cars to drive around our freeways enough.
Right, I'm sure it doesn't take long to map freeways, especially in areas where there are lots of Teslas.

Yep, I think this is true.

I also think freeways are going to get mapped super fast. There is a lot more data readily available on those and there are a lot less of them compared to local roads. I'm not concerned about EAP on the freeway!

 

[bob_p]

What we're likely to see first for FSD cars is activation of the other 4 cameras, which should especially help with tracking vehicles in adjacent lanes (adjusting the spacing between adjacent cars would eliminate many of the times I've had to disengage from autosteer).

 

[Falkirk]

Has Elon or has it been said anywhere "officially" that the 3 will start off at the same level of progress of AP2? That would be a great question to hear the answer from Elon himself and amazing news for all of us waiting on the 3! Thanks to the pioneers in the S and X who'll get us there.

 

[mitchellh3]

Has Elon or has it been said anywhere "officially" that the 3 will start off at the same level of progress of AP2? That would be a great question to hear the answer from Elon himself and amazing news for all of us waiting on the 3! Thanks to the pioneers in the S and X who'll get us there.

Nope, afaik the only official statement is that the 3 will have AP2 hardware.

 

[calisnow]

Has Elon or has it been said anywhere "officially" that the 3 will start off at the same level of progress of AP2? That would be a great question to hear the answer from Elon himself and amazing news for all of us waiting on the 3! Thanks to the pioneers in the S and X who'll get us there.

Why wouldn't it? It's just software. It would be absurd Iif they launch the 3 with less autopilot capability than S/X.

 

[mrkisskiss]

I have no idea, but I think the first signs of EAP might even show up very soon, by July... but initially only as parking assist features. The surround cameras would be excellent at this - perhaps it'll have a "parking seek" mode or something, where the car will hunt at low speed until it finds a suitable parking space, then choose the best method of getting into it - parallel or perpendicular etc. Parking is a complex manoeuvre for us humans, but a great one for a computer... plus, it's low speed and thus relatively low risk (in terms of human life). It's a key part of the FSD strategy, so I would imagine there's a lot of minds working on this right now... it can certainly go way beyond the ultrasonics-only approach the current cars take.

Maps are a key part of any FSD system. Maps give foresight (you can see around the corner), and act as a form of redundancy to the cameras.

However, this particular data harvest (for this roll out) seems more focused on collecting image (and moving image) data specifically to train the vision networks, rather than to do with creating maps. Collecting very focused imagery, from the actual camera hardware it's used on, on actual routes driven by the cars worldwide is brilliant. I'm actually surprised they weren't doing it already. It's the best way to train the side cameras too, since they see the world from a certain angle and perspective that a lot of the existing datasets don't really cover (even the classic Google Street View dataset).

 

[Snuffysasa]

Believe what you like. Like I said, I thought the same thing until I actually looked at pragmatically and not through the lens of what I wanted to hear. Elon is not what you would call precise when responding to tweets either. Unless you have another source where he clearly states people will notice a difference by July between EAP and FSD. I assume only people who bought FSD?

I am still pretty convinced that Elon was convinced that users will notice a difference... now it could be something super simple like, maybe just 'stop sign warning' like an alert. or super charger valet mode. it may be longer than 6 months, but not much longer.

In the latest TED talk Elon said that the demo videos they released of FSD last year only used GPS and cameras, the radar was not being used.

That does not mean that FSD won't use radar, as I think it provides value, like being able to see the car in front of the car in front of you. But that it isn't absolutely necessary.

Yea I think radar will still be used in FSD

 

[FlyF4]

Impressive example of quoting your own posts while patting yourself on the back.

Agree, but I think I can top his prediction.
I predict the sun will rise tomorrow and warm the interior of my X.

 

[diplomat33]

Looks like the new maps and nav engine is entering final testing:
Tesla’s new ‘light-years ahead’ navigation and maps engine is ‘almost done’, says Elon Musk

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Looks like the new maps and nav engine is entering final testing:
Tesla’s new ‘light-years ahead’ navigation and maps engine is ‘almost done’, says Elon Musk

@diplomat33 you must be new here

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33 you must be new here

What's your point? I joined this forum last August.

 

[BigD0g]

Looks like the new maps and nav engine is entering final testing:
Tesla’s new ‘light-years ahead’ navigation and maps engine is ‘almost done’, says Elon Musk

The new maps have been around for at least 9 months now, and they are used on the m3 today.

 

[diplomat33]

The new maps have been around for at least 9 months now, and they are used on the m3 today.

That's not what I am talking about. I am talking about Musk's tweet today that there is a new nav engine that is almost ready for release that Musk says will be "light years ahead" of the current maps. So according to Musk, there is something new coming that is even better than the new maps being used now.

 

[GWord]

What's your point? I joined this forum last August.

He is teasing you; Elon Musk has a track record of optimism when it comes to forward looking statements like what you posted.

 

[diplomat33]

He is teasing you; Elon Musk has a track record of optimism when it comes to forward looking statements like what you posted.

I figured. I guess I just don't share this jaded pessimism that some here seem to have when it comes to Tesla.