TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Tesla BEV Competition Developments

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by uselesslogin, May 25, 2014.

  1. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,300
    Location:
    Omaha, NE
    I would like to start a second thread on competition which is specific to battery-only electric vehicles and does not discuss fuel cells.

    I'm not sure if this was discussed at length or if I lost it in the other thread but Nissan sent out a fairly interesting survey back in January. I agree the Leaf is not competition but I think it is highly likely Nissan will be the first established automaker to seriously compete with Tesla.

    The article and most interesting bit:
    Nissan Asks: Do You Want a 150-mile Nissan LEAF? How Much Would You Pay? - Transport Evolved Electric Car News
    "Perhaps the most interesting part of this hypothetical 150-mile car however, is that Nissan asked the owners it invited to take part in the survey to choose how much more they’d be willing to pay for the extra range. The most expensive choice was $5,000 more than the current model, indicating that Nissan may have dramatically reduced its battery manufacturing costs in recent months."

    Also, in this article a "battery guru" says the small-format cell's cost advantage has "eroded."
    Battery guru: Future of 18650 cells unclear beyond Tesla S - SAE International

    The most expensive choice in the survey was $5,000 and the current model has a range of 84 miles. Perhaps 150 miles would be a 42 kwh pack which would be 18 kwh larger than the current 24 kwh pack. That would indicate a battery cost of less than (and maybe much less than) $280/kwh for Nissan. That may not be very far from Tesla's cost (less than $160/kwh according to the SAE article but Tesla would have higher pack costs). The Nissan battery won't last as long and will degrade faster than Tesla but still at these prices they can compete especially since the Leaf hits a different demographic.

    For me this is very exciting. I'm very glad that Nissan is taking EVs seriously. I would like to see others start.
     
  2. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2012
    Messages:
    6,890
    Location:
    Drammen, Norway
  3. woof

    woof Model S #P683 Blue 85 kWh

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2009
    Messages:
    1,149
    I would add BMW as another serious player along with Nissan. Their i series BEVs are a good start, available in 50 states and around the world, so not just a compliance car. All indications are they will continue to flesh out the lineup with cars larger than the i3. While BMW goes up in size, Tesla will be coming down, so eventually they should compete directly.
     
  4. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2012
    Messages:
    12,756
    Location:
    Texas
    But they are hybrids not BEVs.
     
  5. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    360
    Location:
    Brampton, Ontario
    The i8 is hybrid, but the i3 is pure BEV with an optional hybrid add-on. They have mentioned plans for an i5, but no info yet on whether that would be BEV or hybrid.
     
  6. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2012
    Messages:
    12,756
    Location:
    Texas
    My thought is that few i3s will be sold without the hybrid add on.
     
  7. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2007
    Messages:
    7,047
    That might be the case in the US, but not necessarily world-wide. We won't really know until at least a year in and with the sales fleshed out.
     
  8. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    360
    Location:
    Brampton, Ontario
    That sounds very good, but I am a bit skeptical about the 150-miles statement. You have to remember, that Nissan started advertising the Leaf pre-release with a 100-miles range promise, which turned out to be around 80 EPA rated miles. So when they talk about 150 miles range, they may very well mean only 50% larger battery than the current Leaf, i.e. 36kwh giving an EPA rated ~120miles. It is still better, but not quite the same thing.

    IMHO, to make a BEV a full solution and not limited to local city-driving commuter vehicle, it needs 2 things:
    1. At least 200 miles range on highway speeds
    2. Fast charging system that is no more than 30-40 minutes
    If these two capabilities exists, then the car can be used for road trips if fast charging infrastructure is sufficient along the route.

    Currently, Tesla is the only car that has these capabilities. A 150-mile Leaf would still not be enough...
     
  9. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,300
    Location:
    Omaha, NE
    Another link:
    150 Mile Nissan LEAF Survey - Question Regarding DC Quick Charging | Inside EVs

    This also has some clarification that they are talking 150 miles EPA rating which is only 62 miles short of the Model S 60 kwh. 29 minutes to 80% charge (120 miles) is good. They need to get to 200 miles, I agree, but I think they are putting some serious effort in. I also think if they get this out in 2016 they will take some sales away from a Gen III product. Of course, those are sales Gen III could easily afford to lose.
     
  10. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2011
    Messages:
    2,150
    Location:
    NE Tennessee
    Not sure where you live but for our next car a gasoline backup is mandatory. I was just on a trip to New Mexico and drove 860 miles before we came close to a J1772 plug. There were 2 campgrounds with a NEMA 14-50 but both were located out of town with NOTHING in walking distance. Even though I live just off I81 and I 26 Tesla has no plans for super chargers to allow me to get to DC, Pittsburgh or Tylertown MS, our three most common trips.

    I drive an EV and even built two and have invested in Tesla, but I am afraid we are a long way off from kicking gas.
     
  11. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    2,520
    Location:
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    I would guess that the first real competition is the mythical BMW i5. There are no stats on it but that will be the first car to have even a remote chance of pulling anything from Tesla.

    BMW i5 to launch before 2015

    Everything about this car is wildly speculative at this point.
     
  12. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2013
    Messages:
    1,903
    Location:
    Sydney

    My understanding as well. That range extender will require maintenance and petrol, thus highlighting Tesla's competitive edge on these issues.

    One of BMW latest trademark registration is line E 1-9. Highly speculative at this point, most likely that is how BMW wants it to be.
     
  13. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,540
    Location:
    Kongsberg, Norway
    This does vary by market. They don't even offer the REX here in Norway, because the electric car incentives don't apply for plug-in hybrids.
     
  14. eepic

    eepic Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2013
    Messages:
    854
    Location:
    Canada
    I hope Nissan is revising their battery chemistry. From what I remember hearing the cycle life for current Leaf batteries is pretty bad in hot climates, according to an automotive battery lecture at some university last year.
     
  15. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2012
    Messages:
    12,756
    Location:
    Texas
    That's correct. After a few lawsuits, Nissan finally admitted that hot climates didn't work for their battery--they spent about a year in denial. Now they offer a four year warranty for existing owners that if the battery degrades more than X, it will be replaced. The year in denial doesn't make me very confident.
     
  16. CHGolferJim

    CHGolferJim Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2014
    Messages:
    842
    Location:
    Chapel Hill, NC
    With the overt positioning comments from Elon Musk for Gen3 vs. BMW, it is hard to believe BMW won't respond (unless they decide that Tesla is just an annoying gnat and BMW can't make money in the business). A 3-5 series or Merc E-class-sized Tesla certainly fits my needs better than the M60......just trying to hold out until the Gen3 arrives! I'm also very interested in how Merc and Tesla might continue model-specific concept development.
     
  17. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,300
    Location:
    Omaha, NE
    Nissan testing new, heat-resistant batteries for Leaf
    In theory it is a problem they can solve but of course I have a lot less trust in Nissan as a consumer than I do Tesla.
     
  18. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
  19. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
    Also an article in the NY Times about Google's new prototype self-driving cars.
    Log In - The New York Times

    The more I think about it, the more I think this is really big news. Really big. It could take a while before they can roll these out to cities who will accept them, but when they do it seems like it will truly revolutionize urban transportation. A few interesting points:

    1. Looks like Google is now manufacturing these prototypes, 100 of them. That's actually a decent amount.

    2. I'd bet they are all-electric.

    3. They currently have a speed limit of 25 mph. They could probably up the speed over time. The reason for 25mph is because it's exponentially harder to do autonomous driving at higher speeds. Also, there are fewer regulation for low-speed vehicles at the moment (Low-speed vehicle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

    4. The initial target is probably urban areas. Think Manhattan. And think about a fleet of taxis that are autonomous with no driver. You step in and just tell the car where you want to go.

    5. This could be huge in China's urban cities. All-electric taxi. With no driver. Google could find a manufacturing partner in China and provide the design and software.

    6. This isn't in direct competition with Tesla right now since Tesla is going after the current auto market (ie., cars with drivers). But in 15 years, I can see Google and Tesla as major competitors.

    I could go on but I'll leave it here for now.
     
  20. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2012
    Messages:
    1,823

Share This Page