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Tesla BEV Competition Developments

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I'm guessing this:

2018 - The incumbents find out the Model 3 is profitable, awesome and ramp up is real. Management panics, serious commitments are done, development starts but structural problems prevent catching up.
2022 - The incumbents bring cars to the market with price & spec of 2016 Teslas

A story from Germany: In 1990, everybody was wondering how long it would take until East Germany will reach parity with West Germany. Some guessed 10 years, some guessed 20 years. In 2018, inequality between East and West Germany is still very pronounced. I'm really not sure the incumbents will ever make cars that reach parity with Tesla.
I believe your view is quite likely. Whatever competitors can mass production in 2021-2022 will barely computers with current Tesla offerings. By that time, the line will have moved significantly.

Good chance they never gain parity and Tesla has several more years ahead of them with demand exceeding supply despite opening additional GFs in China, Europe and the U.S.

I predict the "Uh Oh!" moment in the collective American consciousness about EVs will happen by the end of next year as Model 3s become very common. The reaction to mine in just 3 days over the weekend is mind blowing and I haven't even taken it to work yet.
 
VW in 2020 or 2021. I think Diess is serious and he's converting entire factories to all-electric.

Anyone else won't do it before 2021-2022.

Japanese companies: Nissan might come out with something in late 2019. Nobody else will ever come out with anything.

Korean: Kia/Hyundai might come out with something if they resolve their battery supply issues.

Chinese: several possibilities for real competitors quite quickly. This is why China is the only real alternative to Tesla for EVs in the pre-2020 period.

Yes, the Hyundai KONA is arguably the Y today (minusthere interior and supercharger network).

Problem is, you can't get one (in Canada at least). Limited 2018 supply is sold out (10 units? I'm joking. Kinda). They're taking pre-orders on 2019 units, but I can't get a price yet - I've been redirected to a dealer, of course.
 
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There are some advantages learning from, and not being the pioneer. Let the others plow the fields, spend the R&D money, take risks, do the heavy lifting and make the mistakes.
Internet search Tesla R&D 2010-2017 [Model S/X/3/SEMI, GigaFactory/battery, power wall/pack] 8 year TOTAL <$4.4 billion
Now compare to any other auto company - how to explain the differences?
[cynic alert: Tesla does honest R&D - many others do for tax dodge or just incompetent management]

PS - What do we see that any of them have learned from Tesla? Electrification is the future? any thing else?
BMW & Mercedes & VW seems to have great people - top management & sales (IMHO) a big let down.
End of year sales numbers of great interest.

In europe Renault seems to be putting in the most effort. (not available in US).

China and South Korea seem most serious about catching up. India could/might surprise us.
 
Volkswagen Plans 16 New Electric Car Assembly Plants, 1 In North America | CleanTechnica

Volkswagen is serious about electric cars. In my opinion, even a car that is 5 years behind Tesla that is produced and sold in volume is better than any ICE, so I'm glad to see that. I wonder if the development of VWs stock price is because of the e-tron reveal? It rose from $156 to $176 in the last two weeks. It seems investors think that EVs are the future!
 
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There are many places where 10 million cars will be built on VW's EV platform, but I haven't been able to find anywhere what time period they are talking about. Is it 10 million over the life of the 1st gen platform, which could be 10 years or more? 10 million is the approximate volume of all of VW group's yearly production today. I would think if they were planning on 10 million a year there would be some mention of that because that would mean all their production, or close to it was converting.

Another thing it the eTron is not that impressive. It's a much smaller car than the Model X with a 95 KWH battery and gets about the range of the X 75D. The plant where they are going to build the eTron currently builds about 140K ICE a year, so even if they maximize production it will only be between 1/5 and 1/10 the Model 3's production level, at least in the initial factory.

There are reports from earlier this year that VW plans to build about 3 million "electrified" vehicles by 2022. That could mean a large percentage of hybrids in the mix. Tesla will likely be making more than 3 million BEVs a year by that time.

Though I have thought VW had a good chance of surviving the coming disruption because they have had to concentrate more on EVs than most other automakers due to the dieselgate scandal. It would be ironic they become the strongest survivor of the legacy automakers because of a scandal cheating emissions tests.
 
That article on eTron limits is US-centric. It may be that dealers in at least some parts of Europe will stock them. VW and the other European automakers have to start cranking out EVs and reasonable electric range hybrids soon because a number of European cities are banning ICE by the middle of next decade. Anybody who isn't selling some electric vehicles in reasonable numbers in those places will be losing sales.

VW has had problems meeting demand for the eGolf so they might just be being cautious about rolling out the eTron. The factory where they are building them is fairly small and initial production runs will be limited.

They may be writing off the American market to a large degree until they can get their volumes up because they know they will be competing on Tesla's home turf. All of Tesla's cars have been introduced in the US first and then only made it to Europe when they worked out most of the production problems. The Model 3 isn't for sale in Europe yet. VW is probably taking a reverse strategy, focusing more on Europe first, but allowing a toe in the water in North America.
 
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That article on eTron limits is US-centric.

They may be writing off the American market to a large degree until they can get their volumes up because they know they will be competing on Tesla's home turf.

This site is US-centric. Didn't feel the need to specify Audi USA policy.

Considering exactly half of US States have prohibitions on Tesla retail outlets and none place limits on Audi outlets I would say the US is neutral turf.

The American West Coast is Tesla's home turf. In the half of US States where Tesla is limited or completely prohibited from selling from a brick and mortar store Audi has the advantage.
 
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Last I saw there were 20 states with restrictions on Tesla sales. 8 of those allow Tesla sales, but limit the number of stores in the state.

There are a few states with Tesla restrictions where there is EV demand like Texas, but many have low EV consumer interest.

I came across this:
America's Top Luxury Cars by State

The Model S is the best selling luxury car in Washington and California. Audi sales in Kansas, New Jersey, and Virginia are extremely high compared to the national average for some reason.
 
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Connecticut allows one highly regulated and scrutinized gallery. This matters.

Oklahoma,South Carolina,Louisiana,Wisconsin,New Mexico,Iowa and Michigan does not allow stores or galleries. This probably matters quite a bit when taken as a whole.

Texas ban on Tesla stores but liberal regulation of galleries matters some. Making customers do extra work to get a Tesla is going to push some sales elsewhere.

Restrictions in New York,Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia,Ohio and North Carolina are significant. New York allows 5 Stores, Tesla has placed all 5 in greater NYC, and lobbied for a bill allowing 20 stores. Tesla promised powerful Republicans upstate that they would place 3 stores in their districts if bill were to pass.

Georgia allows 5 Tesla stores but Tesla has only two in Atlanta.

Restrictions in West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama,Arkansas,Montana,North Dakota,South Dakota,Nebraska,and Kansas probably don't have significant impact. Until a few years after Tesla Pickup Job1.

All in all I would say restrictions reduce Tesla US demand about 20%.
 
The restrictions various states put on sales definitely hurts. Though Tesla does have several moats in their favor too. One thing that could hurt other brands of long range EVs are: poor range compared to comparable Teslas (true so far for the eTron and iPace), possible poor long range charging network, possibly expensive long range charging network vs Tesla, possibly too few stalls per charging location which results in backups during peak periods.

Another moat in Tesla's favor is that legacy car dealers in most places are ambivalent about EVs and make little effort to sell them. They also don't make as much money from service with EVs that they can make with ICE. Hybrids are popular with dealers because they are a step in the right direction, but they still have ICE with all the ICE maintenance issues.

Because Audi is selling the eTron (in the US at least) by special order only, the only people who will buy one here are those who here about it somewhere else. There may be some who see ads for it, but most will read about it online somewhere, mostly in EV related sites. So it will sell to the EV ghetto again. Meanwhile Tesla is selling up against mid-range ICE sedans and soon mid-range ICE SUVs. Two of the top trade ins for the Model 3 are the Accord and the Civic. That means ICE owners are looking at Tesla for their next car. I wouldn't be surprised if a large percentage of those people are unaware the eTron exists or that production has started.

A bifurcated market is what the legacy automakers want. They need to keep selling ICE and hybrids to their "traditional" customers (the vast majority) and then sell the EVs out the back door to the eco buyers who learned about their EV through some specialty publication or discussion on an eco focused website. They don't have the batteries to mass produce EVs yet and so they need to keep the ICE gravy train going as long as possible.

Tesla meanwhile is breaking down that wall and moving into the mainstream market. There are lots of people now who would either buy an ICE or a Tesla. They wouldn't even look at another brand of EV. The iPace and eTron are definitely better looking that previous efforts by legacy automakers and they have better range, but even if they prove popular, they are limited by battery availability.

There are people who want a lot of knobs and buttons in their car and Tesla doesn't do that, so there is a market for other brands. But for pure practicality, especially for long distance driving, Tesla still can't be beat.

I think Tesla should challenge other long range EVs to a US coast to coast "race" in their EVs using the charging networks available to their cars and track the cost of the trip. Tesla would be win by at least a day, possibly more. They would make fewer stops, those supercharging stops would cost less, and the stops would probably be shorter on average.
 
This tangent got started with is the US Tesla's home turf?

I contend from the government regulations POV it is not.

At best it is neutral vis-a-vis Audi and the other legacy automakers.

In California Tesla gets 3 ZEV credits for every Tesla sold while Toyota gets 5 ZEV credits for every Mirai sold.

Global headquarters and Tesla's only automotive factory is in CA.

Toyota moved their US headquarters from California to Texas. And Toyota USA longer has any factories in California.

And California rewards Toyota and relatively punishes Tesla. Seriously WTF?

Could you imagine Japan punishing Toyota and rewarding Tesla?

Or Germany stacking the deck in favor of Tesla against VW-Audi-Porsche?
 
There are many places where 10 million cars will be built on VW's EV platform, but I haven't been able to find anywhere what time period they are talking about. Is it 10 million over the life of the 1st gen platform, which could be 10 years or more? 10 million is the approximate volume of all of VW group's yearly production today. I would think if they were planning on 10 million a year there would be some mention of that because that would mean all their production, or close to it was converting.
My guess is that is for the period that the much mentioned battery-deal is running - from ~2022 to 2030.
 
Probably many more pioneers walked than ever drove a car coast to coast.

I very much doubt this. Walked some of the way while on horse or horse drawn wagon? Probably.

Many pioneers did not start on the East coast and most pioneers stopped short of the West coast.

Who would really care? When was the last car you owned because it won some race? Is this why Porsche sells?

Why do you think automakers race? For the giggles?

It is the reason why Porsche sells so many 911s and the 911 is the reason Porsche sells so many other Porsches. It is the reason Ferrari and McLaren sell any cars at all.

Racing used to be much more important than today. When race car technology was much closer to what consumers could buy at dealer lots.

If Tesla was racing almost stock Model S and Model 3 I am sure to would make an impression on people who are passionate about cars. The kind of people that influence their friends and family's choices in cars.
 
Yes, the Hyundai KONA is arguably the Y today (minusthere interior and supercharger network).

Problem is, you can't get one (in Canada at least). Limited 2018 supply is sold out (10 units? I'm joking. Kinda). They're taking pre-orders on 2019 units, but I can't get a price yet - I've been redirected to a dealer, of course.
Minus the performance.
Minus the AWD. (More important).
It'll sell in spades (digging will stop at 50,000 at least for now), but it in no way should be considered to be an electric SUV.
 
side note:

Production. The Volkswagen Group produced 10,875,000 vehicles worldwide in fiscal year 2017, 4.5% more than in the previous year. ... Our plants worldwide produced an average of 44,170 vehicles per working day, an increase of 2.3% on the prior-year level.

Yes, ICE cars/trucks/SUV are still Tesla's major competitors.

PS - some fine insights into auto industry - starts slow intro about 7 or 8 min.
Bob Lutz - Madison Avenue & Wall Street [Profits & Marketing first]

PPS - BMW M3 vs Tesla Model 3 - for those that race results matter
 
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Yes, the Hyundai KONA is arguably the Y today (minusthere interior and supercharger network).

Problem is, you can't get one (in Canada at least). Limited 2018 supply is sold out (10 units? I'm joking. Kinda). They're taking pre-orders on 2019 units, but I can't get a price yet - I've been redirected to a dealer, of course.

Also minus 20 inches in length. The Kona's size is almost identical to the Bolt and is considered a sub-compact hatch while the Model 3 is a mid-sized to large car (based on how you measure it, most people on the street would consider it mid-sized). The electric Kona also sacrifices 27 cf of cargo capacity for the battery. The ICE version has 46 cf of cargo space and the electric only has 19. The Model 3 only has 15 cf of cargo space, but the Model Y will probably be more than 20.

For zippyness the Kona as 200 hp and the RWD Model 3 has 270. The AWD M3 is higher hp.

Basically the Kona is a serious competitor to the Bolt, but the Y will probably be a bigger and more useful car.

This tangent got started with is the US Tesla's home turf?

I contend from the government regulations POV it is not.

At best it is neutral vis-a-vis Audi and the other legacy automakers.

In California Tesla gets 3 ZEV credits for every Tesla sold while Toyota gets 5 ZEV credits for every Mirai sold.

Global headquarters and Tesla's only automotive factory is in CA.

Toyota moved their US headquarters from California to Texas. And Toyota USA longer has any factories in California.

And California rewards Toyota and relatively punishes Tesla. Seriously WTF?

Could you imagine Japan punishing Toyota and rewarding Tesla?

Or Germany stacking the deck in favor of Tesla against VW-Audi-Porsche?

Regulatory issues in the US do hamper Tesla, but Tesla still sells 40-50% of its cars here (this year will be higher, but that's only because the M3 is only available in the US and Canada right now). Tesla has a strong fan base in the US which consists of some traditional luxury car buyers, but a heck of a lot of people who have no interest in European luxury cars. The EVs coming in from the European luxury car makers will have at least some passing interest from Americans interested in EVs, but few will sell to people who aren't also into the European luxury branding.

Europeans see Audi, Mercedes, Volvo, Jaguar, BMW etc. differently from Americans. Americans have gone for those brands more in the last 10-20 years than they did in before that, but many Americans still see them as somewhat snooty brands. In Europe I believe the less expensive cars from those brands sell better than cars like the Camry or Accord. They are more seen as mid-range priced cars.

At least in the US, Tesla's brand spans socioeconomic groups. I know quite a few people who would never consider a European luxury car who want a Tesla (or already have one). I see a socioeconomic split here on the forum with some people who have driven luxury cars for many years and getting a Tesla was just another in a long line of expensive cars and others who come from a very different mindset and always drove far more humble vehicles almost always by choice.