Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[MP3Mike]

Yeah not sure about the headlights but overall I like the design. I do wonder how they plan to do a 180kWh pack.

They are using a different chemistry. You can tell because the 180kWh version has less power available and accelerates slower...

 

[dc_h]

For a long time I have predicted that the first major victim for this transition to BEV will be Fiat-Chrysler. Well, the Italian government will probably save Fiat, but I don't know how it will go with Chrysler. And that saddens me...

Who will save the Italian government?

 

[dc_h]

Serious question: how old are you?

I haven't used a USB key since 2011 and I'm in my early 30's and worked at multiple software editing company as PM / sales / marketing manager. I also don't use cloud services (neither for music, movies or files except for work) as I much prefer the simplicity and ubiquity of Syncthing to have my data synced in real time between all my devices.

Who plug things for data, nowadays?

i wonder if Elon doesn't really want to solve the USB issue and drive people to stream audio and video. Long term, with self driving, Tesla Streaming services could have millions of captive customers. Maybe not as big a market as cars, but to have 1-2 hours of daily engagement of the average owner\user, could be a pretty darn big market.

 

[neroden]

You've given me too many likes lately, so I need to balance things out.
NYC subway subway stats per Wikipedia:
Car holds 250 people
Train has 8 to 11 cars
Average speed is 17 MPH (top speed 55)
Departure rate, 2-5 minutes
So 10 car train at 17 MPH moves 10×250×17 = 42,500 people miles per minute.
At 16 people per pod, and a speed of 60 MPH, it would take 44 pods to equal that rate.
At every 3 minutes, distance between trains is 4,488 feet. Pod nose to nose spacing would need to be 102 feet, if only a single tunnel were used.

First of all, I don't think you understand the concept of safe stopping distances... which mean 180 feet minimum. In other words, you can't match a two-track train capacity using one tunnel each way (i.e. two tracks). You'll need two tracks each way (i.e. four tracks).

Have you accounted for the fact that people have to get in and out of the pods? I realize that Musk's scheme is to have offline loading and unloading (meaning, two extra tracks at every station). If you have frequent stops, you then need two extra tracks everywhere.

(If you don't have offline loading and unloading, you end up with a low average speed for the pods. Same reason average speed is low on the trains: frequent stops.)

So, in order to try to match the capacity of a two-track railroad, you're building tunnels sufficient for a six-track railroad.

But of course a six-track railroad has more than three times the capacity of a two-track railroad. (Because it's normally operated local, semi-express, express)

424 unique stations. NYC is 303 sq miles, so average coverage is 1 station per 0.71 square miles or a square 0.85 miles per side. So worst case average distance would be around 2,200 ft. 3-7 blocks depending on orientation. A pod station every block would have a density 21 times higher, thus reducing the usage of each. If the sub was every 3 minutes per train, and it takes 44 pods with 21x stations, that puts it at about 1.5 minutes per elevator. Mini stations at buildings would be smart.

So now that you're comparing capital costs to a subway with six tracks, you have to triple the capacity to match the trains. Since we've already determined that you can barely match the capacity of a two-track railroad, I think we don't need to run through this exercise any further. And you are building an insanely large number of stations, so your capital costs will be even higher.

But, y'know, building expensive tunnels and then wasting most of their capacity by putting cars in them, and subsidizing this waste with taxpayer money, that's a thing. So maybe they'll do it. (Again.) It's just economically dumb.

 

[RobStark]

I like the styling.

It trailblazes its own corporate design, not apeing traditional Detroit.

Many always find new discomforting,i.e look at this very board when Tesla did away with the nose cone.

It two years the design will "have grown on me."

If Rivian doesn't reach a deal with Tesla, Electrify America should have a decent fast charging network by end of 2020.

 

[mongo]

First of all, I don't think you understand the concept of safe stopping distances... which mean 180 feet minimum. In other words, you can't match a two-track train capacity using one tunnel each way (i.e. two tracks). You'll need two tracks each way (i.e. four tracks).

Sure, safe stopping distance is important. Are you assuming the lead car instantly goes from 60 MPH to 0? If so, then it would require 2 Boring tracks per subway line to get above your 180 ft minimum. Or, pods that link together.

Have you accounted for the fact that people have to get in and out of the pods? I realize that Musk's scheme is to have offline loading and unloading (meaning, two extra tracks at every station). If you have frequent stops, you then need two extra tracks everywhere.

(If you don't have offline loading and unloading, you end up with a low average speed for the pods. Same reason average speed is low on the trains: frequent stops.)

So, in order to try to match the capacity of a two-track railroad, you're building tunnels sufficient for a six-track railroad.

But of course a six-track railroad has more than three times the capacity of a two-track railroad. (Because it's normally operated local, semi-express, express)

Not necessarily:
One main line (or two depending on following distance)
On/off ramp at each station
Due to system routing, you do not need bidirectional main linse everywhere. Instead you can set direction based on current demands. Anything from 90% during rush hour to 50% during the weekends or midday. So your two main lines get replaced with 2 Boring lines that switch direction (along with other parallel lines) plus one on-off line, three total. No need to have direction specific loading if the pods are routed in from the same direction (slight longer trip, but less cost).

So now that you're comparing capital costs to a subway with six tracks, you have to triple the capacity to match the trains. Since we've already determined that you can barely match the capacity of a two-track railroad, I think we don't need to run through this exercise any further. And you are building an insanely large number of stations, so your capital costs will be even higher.

Even at 4 main boring tunnels (for stopping distance) plus one on/off tunnel vs a single dual track line, NYC tunnels are mainly cut and cover so judge for yourself which is more resources intensive to implement or expand.

A vertical pod sized station would be much less cost that a subway platform plus escalator area. Also eliminates or reduces the need for buses and drivers.

But, y'know, building expensive tunnels and then wasting most of their capacity by putting cars in them, and subsidizing this waste with taxpayer money, that's a thing. So maybe they'll do it. (Again.) It's just economically dumb.

Are you talking cars or pods (16 people per)?
The Chicago system is not taxpayer funded.

 

[RobStark]

I like the design, but I think they should be able to get more range out of the 105kW pack...

Now, 230 miles is more than enough range for my use-case (weekend home depot runner), but I'm not willing to shell out $69k for that. I do hope others will.

The 230 mile range is for the 105 kWh pack that starts at ~$50k.

For $69k you get 135 kWh pack with 300 plus miles of range and motor power upgraded from 300 kW to 562 kW. Probably some differences for the cabin and tech features too.

The price for the 180 kWh pack has not been released.

Like Tesla, the middle and top spec versions will be made before the base versions.

BTW I have waited ~3 years to post that meme.

 

[JRP3]

They are using a different chemistry. You can tell because the 180kWh version has less power available and accelerates slower...

Any chemistry I'm familiar with is still going to be heavy and bulky. I guess this frame is thick enough to allow a double layer, so 2 90kWh packs stacked up, (thinking in Tesla terms, they could use a different format with just taller pouch cells), and then the weight carrying capacity would probably be reduced somewhat.

 

[RobStark]

I guess this frame is thick enough to allow a double layer, so 2 90kWh packs stacked up,

It Seems Rivian R1T Truck Houses A 2170 Double Stack Battery Pack

 

[30seconds]

It Seems Rivian R1T Truck Houses A 2170 Double Stack Battery Pack

smart. allows them to access Panasonic manufacturing at Panasonic's other plants.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

The 230 mile range is for the 105 kWh pack that starts at ~$50k.

For $69k you get 135 kWh pack with 300 plus miles of range and motor power upgraded from 300 kW to 562 kW. Probably some differences for the cabin and tech features too.

The price for the 180 kWh pack has not been released.

Like Tesla, the middle and top spec versions will be made before the base versions.

BTW I have waited ~3 years to post that meme.

~$50k does sound better, it appears many were reporting incorrectly that $69k (GreenCarReports) was the base price.

I assure you, you are the first to use that meme in a reply to me

 

[Yuri_G]

Do the Rivian battery pack prices look optimistic to anyone else?

 

[RobStark]

~$50k does sound better, it appears many were reporting incorrectly that $69k (GreenCarReports) was the base price.

I assure you, you are the first to use that meme in a reply to me

Automotive News is reporting $69k base price for 2021 R1T, but that is for the 135 kWh pack.

At the earliest the 105 kWh truck will come 12 months later for 2022 model year (November 2021).


So in a way $69k is the base price. Then again everything Rivian is speculation at this point.

BTW Hey, I have not disagreed with any of your post enough to use that meme in 3 years.

 

[RobStark]

Do the Rivian battery pack prices look optimistic to anyone else?

They plan to ship the midsize and large pack November 2020.

And the small pack November 2021.

Prices drop an average of ~6% per year.

Rivian isn't funding all the non-automotive R&D nor a Supercharger Network that Tesla funds.

And I don't think Rivian will be leaving pennies on the table for the altruistic reasons.

They might plug into many of the Tesla suppliers, which already have economies of scale because of Tesla.

 

[Yuri_G]

They plan to ship the midsize and large pack November 2020.

And the small pack November 2021.

Prices drop an average of ~6% per year.

Rivian isn't funding all the non-automotive R&D nor a Supercharger Network that Tesla funds.

And I don't think Rivian will be leaving pennies on the table for the altruistic reasons.

They might plug into many of the Tesla suppliers, which already have economies of scale because of Tesla.

I still think it's optimistic given Tesla's fight to get production costs down over the years. I'm sure they will use cheaper batteries in two years, but there's no way they will get Tesla rates for their batteries and these are huge packs. The announcement was Rivian's Model S unveil. Now they actually have to start a car company.

 

[RobStark]

I still think it's optimistic given Tesla's fight to get production costs down over the years. I'm sure they will use cheaper batteries in two years, but there's no way they will get Tesla rates for their batteries and these are huge packs. The announcement was Rivian's Model S unveil. Now they actually have to start a car company.

They have an actual factory with seasoned employees. Cost of living is a bit cheaper in Normal, Illinois vs Fremont, California.

They will start generating income next year by stamping parts for other OEMs next year. (There is a stamping shortage in the Midwest)

They may also sell battery packs or skateboards to other OEMs.

They have over 600 employees over 3 locations.

LG is behind Tesla/Panasonic but they are not 10 plus years behind.

There is now a much bigger electric vehicle infrastructure vs 8 years ago.

 

[Model 3]

Who will save the Italian government?

That is OT here, try the political sub-forum

 

[bro1999]

The Cheeto man-child just tweeted that he is looking into "cutting all GM subsidies, including electric cars".
So I'm assuming he's talking about cutting the federal tax credit? Is that even possible? To deprive a single manufacturer of tax credits before they sunset on their own?
Our president is a total moron.
Oh, and GM stock dropped 3% after Cheeto's tweet. Is he a GM shorter?

 

[RobStark]

Hot damn! This is an electric SUV!

No sissy C pillar. No hugging the ground sedan-like.

Rivian Debuts R1S Electric SUV: Seats 7, Packs 180-kWh Battery

 

[RobStark]