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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by uselesslogin, May 25, 2014.
You don't expect the SR version of the Model 3 to make it to China?
Nice review of the Kona, looks like a very interesting EV for the price point
If I remember right, China has a massive import duty on foreign built cars, like a 100% markup or some such.
That's likely the main reason Tesla is working on getting a plant built in China to make Model 3s. Then they'll be able to compete with locals on price.
New generation Fiat 500e will be produced in Europe - Push EVs
"Moreover, the Fiat 500e will get a new platform entirely designed for small electric cars"
That makes FCA another company that has a dedicated EV platform. Others I know of: VW (with Porsche, Audi, Skoda etc.), Mercedes (not yet the EQ-C, but after that they plan to), Chinese companies.
I believe Hyundai/Kia don't have a dedicated EV platform. BMW explicitly doesn't plan to have one.
BMW has the i3. Although it was designed to support both a BEV and an extended range BEV model it’s an all new design and the engine and gas tank are tiny. It has an under the floor battery pack.
Although Hyundai/Kia do not have dedicated EV model designs, their Niro, Kona, and now Soul EV vehicles have suspension platforms and lower body frames that are unique to the EV variant and designed around a skateboard-like under the floor battery pack. Those three BEV models now have 64 kW packs which is slightly more than the 60 kW in the dedicated Bolt EV design.
i3 and i8 will probably be discontinued and future BMW EVs will roll off the same line as gasoline cars:
BMW hints at no future for its i3 electric car
BMW Hints i3, i8 Might Not Live After This Generation
It seems the PSA group (Peugeot, Citroen, Opel, ...) plans a dedicated EV platform:
PEUGEOT EV Models
I'm currently checking out the FY2019 Summary Toyota Report to the shareholders. The presentation is awesome, the best I've seen so far (I haven't seen many though).
This stood out to me:
"At Toyota, we have a concept—the Mobility Teammate Concept—for autonomous driving that lets driver and car help each other reduce accidents. The development process prioritizes cost, reliability, practical application and, of course, the elimination of traffic accidents. In 2020, we plan to commercialize Highway Teammate, which facilitates autonomous driving on
highways from on-ramp all the way through to the off-ramp, and executes passing and changing lanes under driver supervision."
Tesla's autopilot seems to be far superior in 2018 to what Toyota has planned for 2020. And that's not just being more bold with what they bring to market, just simply better. From my limited experience with AP1, I'd say even that already delivered what they are planning for 2020.
the SR is a model to stimulate demand, I expect Tesla to launch it in China quite rapidly after the delivery of LR and MR.
2 years is a long time is china market, this year will probably be 980,000 consumer new energy vehicles in China, so 2019 being first year of quotas will double thats, and 2020 will probably be about 80% higher than 2019, so best guess is 2020 will sell 3.5 million new energy vehicles in China alone, or about 2.5 million more plugin vehicles than this year's market,
I don't know how long it will take Tesla to fully commission a real production line in China (as opposed to just a tariff avoiding knock down kit type assembly plant) but if it takes 18 months to build and 6 months to commission, they have
a) performed really well
b) missed out on 2019 and 2020, and looking at 2021
but back to 2020, thats about 2.5million plug in vehicles, mostly from models not on the market today, its going to span the entire spectrum current spectrum from 21kWh EV160 models to 80+kWh EV500
10kWh PHEV50 to 24kWH PHEV 100 models
by 2020, NIO might have covered China with swap stations, This could be a comparable advantage similar to how Tesla Supercharger is in USA.
So I've been thinking about competition for a while.....
There was a great article that I'm too lazy to look for, but the gist of it was that Tesla had to wade through hell to get a successful, mass produced, reasonably priced EV to market and make a profit. Every other OEM will have to wade through hell to do the same.
But the OEMs will have to wade through hell WHILE LOSING MONEY ON THEIR EXISTING PRODUCTS. That's a double whammy.
Take Audi. Their e-tron GT looks awesome. If I were an Audi enthusiast, that'd be my next car. So I would absolutely hold off on buying an A6 or A8 a year or two until it's available, precisely as tens of thousands of Model 3 purchasers did. So if it's not bad enough that Tesla is swaying potential Audi customers to purchase a Tesla, diehard Audi customers will not be purchasing an Audi for a few years.
BMW is in an even worse boat, IMHO. They've stated that they will be building pure EVs on the same chassis as the ICE cars.....their quote was 'you can't have 2 production lines (one for ICE and one for EV), and 1 of them be idle'. While that statement has validity, arguably the only thing worse is to only have 1 line, with that line being idle...
Finally, EVs will be differentiated not by the powertrain, but by the technology. People buy BMWs and Audis because of their ICE expertise, but they have little to no experience designing the UI. Tesla is leaps and bounds ahead in that race, and it's difficult to imagine them giving up that lead any time soon.
So Tesla went through hell to get from 0 to 1. But it's far, far easier to go from 1 to 2, and even easier to go from 2 to 3. By the time any OEM goes from 0 to 1, how many numbers ahead will Tesla be?
Chinese startups have a chance, but I have a hard time seeing anyone else making the transition.
The catch-22 the mainstream companies face is demand for EVs collapsing their ICE sales. Julian Cox described the problem in a lecture he did last year. I've posted it on the forum a couple of times. He's a terrible public speaker, but his lecture is very information dense. Some of the existing companies are going to be seen as too big to fail by their home countries and may get bailed out.
Another thing the mainstream faces is car sales outside of China and a couple of other developing countries have been falling for a couple of decades and they could fall even more sharply in the next few years. ICE cars reliability has increased to a point that people are keeping cars longer. The average age of a car on US roads is 12 years. That means half the fleet was built before 2006. New car prices have also encouraged people to hold on to old cars if they own, or lease if they want or need a newer car. Add into this mix that in cities at least, ride sharing companies as well as other community based vehicle sharing is leading to more people giving up having a car at all. Once you get outside of the inner suburbs of urban areas, some kind of vehicle ownership is needed, but around 1/2 the population are in dense enough areas to get by without a car and many are doing it.
So car companies are headed into a future where they will need to shutter factories and have fewer car sales, but they need to completely change the underlying tech to survive at all. It's a pretty tough challenge. Some will make it and Tesla might buy some pieces of some of the failed companies as they ramp up. Tesla is expanding into a shrinking market, but they have the only vehicle type with increasing demand in the developed world. There still will be a need for vehicles, but who owns them will be changing.
Kia e-Niro startet in Deutschland bei 34.290 Euro - electrive.net
(via Google Translate)
34,290 € = US $38,860
Doesn't look like Hyundai waded through much hell.
Existing auto makers that decline as EVs rise will have strategy problems, not execution problems. Both Hyundai/Kia and BMW are taking the most logical approach with shared platforms IMO. The Kia Soul is the first reasonably good sized CUV EV at a good price.
I still think the Supercharger network is a huge advantage for Tesla. I'm aware that EA is building a CCS based system, but at least so far, none of the manufacturers are building out the system themselves except for some pretty useless dealership based chargers. Even EA is putting in a lot of very low powered chargers that are not very practical for long distance driving.
Talk to me when a legacy manufacturer makes an EV in Model 3 numbers. Chinese are close but still use small battery packs. I'd be surprised if anyone competes with the Model 3 in battery pack size and sales in the next 5 years (bigger than 60kWh and more than 200k vehicles per year)
That prediction is a pretty dismal future for EVs. It means no inexpensive EV has been able to match even Prius-like sales numbers.
I'm seeing the high water mark for Prii at 500k in 2010. Model 3 should be able to do that in a year or two.
And in AWD. Front wheel drive CUVs aren’t even attempting to dabble in a popular segment. Especially in the US. For example, I think I really take issue (perhaps irrationally so) that Chevy can get away with calling the Bolt a CUV. Seems total weak-sauce marketing to me.
The CUV/SUV designation has broadened so absurdly in the last several years that it essentially only means "not a sedan." The only reason for this is that the term "wagon" has fallen out of favor.
A list of station wagons that are called CUV or SUVs:
I can live with all of those other than the Bolt being CUVs as I think the rest can be had in AWD. Again this is only my perception that CUVs should require AWD.
I consider wagons to be lower and longer than the Bolt, iPace, etc.