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Tesla BEV Competition Developments

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by uselesslogin, May 25, 2014.

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  1. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    Volume is a factor too. None of these cars is going to be available in volumes approaching the Model S's or X's current volume for a few years yet, and Tesla is already mass producing an EV. How exactly is the Taycan going to bury the Model S when its production numbers are 1/2 the Model S?

    By the time most of these competitors get to the volumes Tesla was producing in 2017, Tesla production will be over 1 million cars a year along with a semi and probably the pickup.
     
  2. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

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    It's not one car that's going to be a issue for Tesla, but the combination of all of them. Until a few weeks ago Tesla basically owned the premium EV market. There was nothing else. Now you already have the I-Pace and the e-tron is coming. Then later this year the EQC followed by the Porsche at the end of it. One car being build at 10-20k will have little effect, but when you have 4 they start to get close to total Model S & X production, once they all ramped up production.

    And on top of that we also see Mode S & X owner buying Model 3. And then you also have the MiniE, iX3 and so on coming which are also alternatives for people who just got or considered a Model S, because it was the only option if you wanted a premium long range EV.

    You mean like they build 10k Model 3 a week now?
     
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  3. oneday

    oneday Member

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    Except for the fact that the overall vehicle market is still very very large. We may have already hit peak ICE in 2018. Most of these sales will be taken from incumbents ICE sales. Bringing EV’s more and more to the mainstream. Which will also make new buyers interested in cross shopping to Tesla for the first time. And Tesla specs are better and no other manufacturer can currently compete with the tech or supercharger network. I predict real competition is still many years away.
     
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  4. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Just like Audi was going to build the ground breaking R8 Etron with 250 miles of range in 2014 and be the spearhead for BEV segment domination.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Buddyroe

    Buddyroe Member

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    You gotta love how the EV sales cap is assumed to be what Tesla is selling and any new EVs will eat into that market. I don't see how they don't get that these other EV manufacturers will eat their own ICE sales, and not Tesla's. Think of it like this - every single person who bought a Tesla would have eventually purchased an ICE car if Tesla had never been created. So, at one point, the EV market was zero. Now it is much larger, and every single buyer was previously an ICE buyer. What makes these people think that trend won't continue (and grow exponentially as we have seen over the last 6 years)?

    One thing I will tell you though - Tesla DOES need to take the next step in being a major player in the auto industry. There are so many missing features that people have come to expect on cars - the infotainment system for one is badly deficient to almost all other manufacturers. Apple CarPlay and Android auto - or some type of integrated texting feature is something people are beginning to expect in cars. I know my wife complains about it constantly. There's a refresh thread where people list about 8 common features that Tesla simply doesn't offer. Those deficiencies need to be eliminated quickly. There will be potential buyers who will chose not to buy just on the grounds of not having ONE of these features. I'm willing to bet some of these were show stoppers for potential Model 3 buyers.
     
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  6. Electroman

    Electroman Active Member

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    When Tesla was selling 50k per year, that was the EV cap. So Nissans new 150 mile Leaf would share Teslas market, and Tesla at best can stay at that level and cannot expand

    When Tesla sold 100k, that was the new EV cap. Bolt has come in to share the 100k EV pie and so Tesla has reached peak EV.

    When now Tesla sells 300k this is now the new EV cap. Now that EV pie will ALSO be shared. Although Tesla will get the biggest chunk of the pie, the other dozen compliance EVs will start eating into it and Tesla cannot expand.

    And when Tesla sells 500K EVs in 2019 - that will be the new peak EV number that will be shared by everyone..

    ... and so the story goes.
     
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  7. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    Any thoughts on this? Ipace outselling all Teslas in Holland last month?

    Jaguar I-PACE Outsells All Teslas Combined In The Netherlands

    As an aside, I think Tesla knocking a few thousand off won’t hurt figures much at all because the referral programme changed not so long ago.. first, fourth and fifth are now virtually zero cost. Not so long ago they were toy cars, powerwalls and the like. I’m surprised others haven’t followed the idea.
     
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  8. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    That's just a one off due to the tax regime changing. That being said, the Jaguar is fairly well received. There's some legitimate criticism on its charging system (should've been 3 phase capable and there is firmware upgrade pending to improve CCS rates from 85 to 100kW but other than that it's not too bad for a completely new model. Sure, there'll be some people buying an ipace instead of an S (or X) but that'll be more than offset by the growth in the total EV market. Ie, Tesla's market share in premium EVs will go down, but the addressable market will expand.
     
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  9. GeorgeSymonds

    GeorgeSymonds Member

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    I've heard the tax regime changing argument, but its changing for Tesla too, and I've not heard anyone saying "M3 sales were only because of the tax regime change in the US". That said, It must be a blip of some sorts. They don't make enough of them at the moment to do that in more than one country
     
  10. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Yes, it changed for the S/X as well, but the difference is that Tesla's were available the full year while the IPace is only available since November. That means the sales for the first half of 2019 from Tesla were spread over 6 months or so while the same sales for the Jaguar were only spread over two months.
     
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  11. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Tesla S/X outsold Jaguar BEVs in Holland for 2018 and will do so again in 2019.

    Ditto Norway,Europe and the World.

    BTW Jaguar Dutch sales increased 269% YoY.
     
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  12. reddit_tl

    reddit_tl Member

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    I-pace should not be compared directly to s and x, right? the price -sale curve dictates that i-pace would sell more naturally. a better comparison would be when model 3 comes to the dutch market.
     
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  13. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

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    I'm not saying that we are at some absolute cap, but the amount of people who spend or plan to spend a 100k on a premium EV is not unlimited.
    There are people who really just want an EV and 2 years ago they had not options and today they have, And when they want a new car or the lease runs out they might not run straight to Tesla again, but now also consider the competition. And everyone who drives and ICE today and says I'm going EV now also has more options than in the past.
    There are markets where EV incentives are a big factor and where previously Tesla had the market for itself, but now has competition. (Nobody can tell me that out of 3500 I-Pace sales not at least a small number would have gotten a Tesla otherwise).

    I don't doubt EV sales won't go up, but Tesla's monopoly in the high priced EV market is gone and the will have to work much harder to get those sales or just even get those sales for the Model S when people who previously stretched their budged might now just get a 3.

    Which also adds to my point of people having more options today. It forces Tesla to focus more on what customers want and they can't just ignore X feature, because well what else are people who want an EV going to buy? For example some people might not like a Model X with Falcon wing doors and the lack of towing on a Model S might push some people towards an e-tron noe. And many of these individual preferences can make the difference of a few thousand sales and then it starts to affect Tesla.
     
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  14. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    The higher end of the market is getting more options and that will put pressure on Model S/X sales. For Europeans there is the home market advantage for most of the newer options and in many cases less of a wait time. All the new entrants also have better reputations for after sale service support.

    Ultimately I see Tesla moving towards the middle of the market. The higher end of the market was only a stepping stone towards the middle. Right now batteries are too expensive to go after the lower end of the market, so the middle is the big target. By the time the premium European automakers have enough production to really threaten Model S and X sales, Tesla will be producing far more cheaper cars and could afford to re position the high end cars to be more cost competitive with American luxury cars like Cadillac and Lincoln, or even cede that end of the market. On the other hand, if the European luxury brands still have shorter ranges and poor long range charging options in a few years, their sales might continue to lag behind Tesla's top offerings.

    A lot depends on what happens in the next few years.
     
  15. riverFox

    riverFox Member

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    I think Elon is holding back on the S/X refresh until the competition has shown it's cards. A strategy I agree with. He's slow playing everything now
     
  16. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    So Tesla will have to move down to the $80K car market. Big whoop.

    Not really joking. The base price of S and X has been raised, a lot, since they were first introduced. The margins are *ludicrous*. Tesla has cut production costs a lot. They can afford to bring the prices down from astronomical to very high.

    That said, yes, they need Android Auto, Apple CarPlay, and basic answer-the-phone-and-return-calls skills.
     
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  17. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    And they should NOT cut their profits until they can't sell more cars, neither do they have to worry about Android Auto or Apple CarPlay (sorry, I don't even know what those are and I don't care... Who buys a car based on the radio!). The original aim was to get other car makers to make EVs and think about EVs, and they have met that goal.

    Tesla was never concerned about "competition", and these profits you worry about are why they're still around. GM and Toyota would kill Tesla off if they could. Marketing 101 teaches that a company should "charge what the market will bear". When they can't sell all their cars, then they should cut prices as little as possible and make all the profit they can.
     
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  18. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    #2278 RobStark, Jan 4, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019
    I guess Tesla should cede all automotive segments.

    Or they can focus on after sales service support when that becomes a bottleneck to greater sales.

    None of the new entrants have Tesla's reputation for robust electric powertrains nor high tech features.

    BMW makes cars from $22k(Mini) to $500k(Rolls Royce). Well, RR makes bespoke cars that have unlimited ceiling on prices.

    I don't see why Tesla can't be in the $22k-$300k classes. Reservations for Roadster 2.0 suggest they can compete this high.

    Ceding the top end makes the mid price stuff less desirable and aspirational .

    Both Cadillac and Lincoln make cars over $100k. Full size SUVs. They are trying to Chase the Europeans because they try to sell clones but can't command prices the Germans get.

    A Detroit clone can only sell at a 10%- 15% discount, that kills margins.

    Tesla chasing losers Cadillac and Lincoln is just plain stupid. In various luxury sedan classes they are not even in the Top 5 on US Sales Charts.

    Cadillac and Lincoln can't even compete competently in their home market, with the exception of huge body on frame SUVs which the Germans don't make. And the Japanese have never built the economies of scale to compete successfully here.
     
  19. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    There are rumors out there Tesla was going to do an S/X update Q4 2018 or Q1 2019, but delayed it because of the costs and delays with the Model 3 as well as the delay hitting the 200K threshold. I think we'll probably see the refresh sometime this year. They may lower the price as part of the refresh and probably keep pretty close to the same margins. The margin on the S/X has gone up with time and the refresh will probably incorporate a lot of cost savings learned from the Model 3 ramp that will make them as profitable, even if they drop the price.
     
  20. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

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    For one, they gave 2k discounts now that the tax credit is going down. That’s a great PR move; keeps the narrative alive that Tesla charges aggressive prices and has the benefit of the customer in mind.

    Second, as long as Model S/X is limited by battery supply and they keep selling everything they can produce I don’t see any reason for a refresh.

    Further I foresee better margins for Model 3 performance than for Model S/X very soon. So it makes sense to focus on that for now (until global M3P demand is maxed out)
     
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