Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[willow_hiller]

Rivian R1T Electric Truck Deliveries Start June 2021, R1S 2 Months After

I'll be very interested to hear impressions once they actually let journalists drive one. As far as I know, they've never done that, right?

I've seen pre-production vehicles parked for display, and driven in promotional material, but I don't think I've ever heard of a third party driving a Rivian truck and giving impressions.

 

[RobStark]

I'll be very interested to hear impressions once they actually let journalists drive one. As far as I know, they've never done that, right?

I've seen pre-production vehicles parked for display, and driven in promotional material, but I don't think I've ever heard of a third party driving a Rivian truck and giving impressions.

No journalist drives yet.

And to clarify. Rivian says it is $69k for the mid tier 135 kWh 300 mile range 3.0 s to 60 750 hp truck. Base model 105 kWh 4.9 second to 60 230 mile range and top model 180 kWh 400 mile 3.2 s price unreleased.

 

[guidooo]

Single data point: Traded in the Leaf for a Peugeot e-208 yesterday. Expectations what a car should or shouldn't be able to do vary for each person or household. I think it a good and practical set of wheels for the European roads.

 

[JRP3]

I guess this counts as competition, Rimac redesigned their drivetrain after Tesla came out with the new Roadster specs

 

[RobStark]

Toyota’s Quick-Charging Solid-State Battery Coming in 2025

 

[JRP3]

"Solid-state batteries charge quicker, last longer, and have a greater energy density."...on paper.

 

[MXLRplus]

I guess this counts as competition, Rimac redesigned their drivetrain after Tesla came out with the new Roadster specs

Rimac is an ultra exotic produced in boutique numbers. 8 cars sold since 2011. They plan to make another 180 in the future at an unspecified date.
To put it in perspective, 450 Bugatti Veyrons were made.

 

[ammulder]

G.M. lost $758 million in the second quarter.

"General Motors reported on Wednesday that it lost $758 million as its second-quarter revenue was more than halved, to $16.8 billion compared with $36.1 billion in the same period a year ago, as the coronavirus pandemic took a heavy toll on its operations in most regions of the world."​

Revenue down 53%? Oof.

 

[Saghost]

G.M. lost $758 million in the second quarter.

"General Motors reported on Wednesday that it lost $758 million as its second-quarter revenue was more than halved, to $16.8 billion compared with $36.1 billion in the same period a year ago, as the coronavirus pandemic took a heavy toll on its operations in most regions of the world."​

Revenue down 53%? Oof.

With the GDP down a third, lots of folks can’t afford a new car, and a lot of people who can are probably putting it off to have money for the next disaster. The used car market was crashing hard too, with much lower values I’ve read.

 

[Doggydogworld]

With the GDP down a third, lots of folks can’t afford a new car, and a lot of people who can are probably putting it off to have money for the next disaster. The used car market was crashing hard too, with much lower values I’ve read.

GDP wasn't down a third. It dropped ~9.5% in a single quarter. If drops an additional 9.5% in each of Q3, Q4 and Q1 of 2021 then it will be down roughly a third.

 

[adiggs]

Toyota’s Quick-Charging Solid-State Battery Coming in 2025

View attachment 569797

So Toyota thinks they're going to have a prototype of a competitive battery in 2025, with production volumes to follow later (I'd guess at least 2+ years). And they don't yet have a solution to the primary liability of solid state batteries, but maybe left unstated is that they DO have a path to solving the short lifespan problem.

So if they fill the inside straight, then they have technology coming in 2027 that will (might) be better than 2020 or 2017 technology. Sounds like a decade in arrears with at least, for this moment in time, a path to catching up all at once, sometime later.


Sounds like a losing strategy to me, with a non-zero chance of technological leadership or at least parity in 7 years. (And increasingly miserable technology between now and 2027; so all they have to do is hang on!)


THIS is the state of competition for the EV market? Maybe instead of Tesla with 20% market share, maybe 50% or something similarly outrageous is a better 2030 end game to be modeling...

 

[Saghost]

GDP wasn't down a third. It dropped ~9.5% in a single quarter. If drops an additional 9.5% in each of Q3, Q4 and Q1 of 2021 then it will be down roughly a third.

I stand corrected. All the headlines I saw this morning were quoting the 32.9% decrease, and I didn't read far enough to realize they were using a creative annualized projected rate to get that number.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I stand corrected. All the headlines I saw this morning were quoting the 32.9% decrease, and I didn't read far enough to realize they were using a creative annualized projected rate to get that number.

Reporters love to dial up the drama....

So Toyota thinks they're going to have a prototype of a competitive battery in 2025, with production volumes to follow later (I'd guess at least 2+ years). And they don't yet have a solution to the primary liability of solid state batteries, but maybe left unstated is that they DO have a path to solving the short lifespan problem.

So if they fill the inside straight, then they have technology coming in 2027 that will (might) be better than 2020 or 2017 technology. Sounds like a decade in arrears with at least, for this moment in time, a path to catching up all at once, sometime later.


Sounds like a losing strategy to me, with a non-zero chance of technological leadership or at least parity in 7 years. (And increasingly miserable technology between now and 2027; so all they have to do is hang on!)


THIS is the state of competition for the EV market? Maybe instead of Tesla with 20% market share, maybe 50% or something similarly outrageous is a better 2030 end game to be modeling...

Solid state is typically 450-500 Wh/kg, so more than just competitive. But SS will be expensive at first.

I've always said Roadster will use SS. Current SS cells typically do ~125 cycles. They only need to improve that to 300 cycles to have a 200k mile life in the Roadster. As a halo car Roadster needs the latest and sexiest new technology, not 1.2 tons of laptop cells. And at $250k it can afford to include $500/kWh cells.

 

[JRP3]

I've always said Roadster will use SS.

I think this unlikely.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I stand corrected. All the headlines I saw this morning were quoting the 32.9% decrease, and I didn't read far enough to realize they were using a creative annualized projected rate to get that number.

Typical scarestream media sensationalism these days. It's not clear what the media is trying to accomplish with misleading and downright malicious numbers like that.

 

[RobStark]

First American review of the Polestar 2

Tested: 2021 Polestar 2 Goes Light on Style, Big on Tech

Much like European reviewers they liked the car. Except for one thing.

They called the exterior sheet metal " awkward" and "generic."

On their route they use for getting MPG or range they got 190 miles of range. Versus 230 miles for Model 3 long range. Which implies 270 miles of EPA range. Whereas Polestar is saying probably 275, official numbers not out yet.

 

[alloverx]

I dont think the Polestar 2 meets my "buy gen 2 of any new tech" rule. Personally it looks great but you still got to sell them and building them in China might prove painful long term (in the US) due to politics.

 

[Watts_Up]

I would recommend watching this presentation of the Chengdu Motor show about the explosion of he number of new Chinese EVs:

Cheap, Cool & Crazy Electric Cars at CHENGDU MOTOR SHOW | FULLY CHARGED for Clean Energy & EVs​

 

[RobStark]

Audi e-tron 2021 electric SUV gets $9,000 price cut and 18 more miles of range - Electrek

 

[Watts_Up]

Audi e-tron 2021 electric SUV gets $9,000 price cut and 18 more miles of range - Electrek

The Audi e-tron seems to take some lead in Europe:

Why is the Audi E-Tron so popular in Norway? - Quora
Audi e-tron Is The New King Of Norway
​