Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[petit_bateau]

I get my numbers from their press releases, like this one for Q2. It says 60k BEVs in Q1 (I think it was actually something like 59.6) and 111k in Q2 for 171k in the first half. PHEVs were also 171k in the first half (73k Q1 and 98k Q2). You have to make sure you're looking at a VW Group release, their VW brand press releases look the same but have lower numbers.

Jose Pontes publishes quarterly data by model, brand and OEM, formerly on his blog but now in CleanTechnica articles. He uses registration data and estimates, so his numbers are differ by a few percent.

This was the 2020 data I puzzled together, with considerable contributions from Jose Pontes' data. This is the pure BEV segment. I have learned to be cautious about what is in marketing press releases as 'electric'. Clearly VAG have a more solid position in the BEV+PHEV table, but even in the BEV table it is better than everybody other than Tesla. But it is early days for all those companies jostling for #2 and #3 slots.

Regarding the GM Bolt recall, it is not just the cost of ?? $1.8bn, or the loss of consumer confidence, or the dispute with LG. There is also the minor matter of where are they going to get the replacement batteries from, and what production will they have to forego (defer) in order to free up those cells, and how much customer retention will they lose as a result.

If Tesla were to experience a similar problem with cells then it is concievable that could cause Tesla to lose the #1 slot. The real quality control issue we all need to be concerned about is in the cells. Panel gaps are a trivial matter by comparison. All the indications are that Tesla know this, but even hard lessons can be forgotten and sometimes need to be relearned the difficult way. I hope not, but we cannot discount it entirely.

I do hope Tesla are making the right calls with their LFP selections from CATL and EVE.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429942159675899906

 

[Jeff N]

Regarding the GM Bolt recall, it is not just the cost of ?? $1.8bn, or the loss of consumer confidence, or the dispute with LG. There is also the minor matter of where are they going to get the replacement batteries from,

They say LG is going to scale up production capacity once they fix the underlying flaw in their manufacturing process and/or quality control procedures.

To me the real question is whether Audi/Porsche/VW, Ford, Jaguar, and any other users of the same rectangular pouch packaging format from LG will be effected by the GM recall.

The defects underlying the GM recall are said to be rare cases of a partially torn anode power tab (apparently internal to the cell) and an unintended fold in the separator film between the anode and cathode. These seem like defects that would be introduced by the cell manufacturing equipment and thus perhaps not specific just to the cell being used in the Bolt. Is the same basic equipment used by LG in making the cells for those other automakers? We don’t know. The non-Bolt cars using those cells may not have really been around in large enough numbers yet to see a pattern of similar fires.

Obviously, this is all highly speculative. Maybe the same cell-making equipment is used but there is something specific to the Bolt cell geometries that triggers the defect creation. Maybe Bolt cells have thicker than usual active material layers on their electrode foils… Superficially that scenario seems unlikely to be the cause. Or, maybe the LG factories making the cells for those other cars used different cell-making equipment even though the external appearance of those cells and the Bolt cells is very similar. But would LG suddenly switch to different factory equipment all of the sudden just for those other cells? I don’t know.

Time will tell whether we start to see the same defect in the non-Bolt cells. If we do, could be a significant setback for the non-Tesla competition since LG is so dominant in battery manufacturing at the moment. Of course, we have already seen a similar defect show up in the Hyundai Kona Electric.

 

[MP3Mike]

The defects underlying the GM recall are said to be rare cases of a partially torn anode power tab (apparently internal to the cell) and an unintended fold in the separator film between the anode and cathode. These seem like defects that would be introduced by the cell manufacturing equipment and thus perhaps not specific just to the cell being used in the Bolt. Is the same basic equipment used by LG in making the cells for those other automakers? We don’t know. The non-Bolt cars using those cells may not have really been around in large enough numbers yet to see a pattern of similar fires.

Well the same defects have come from three different LG factories in three different countries. So it seems to be a systemic problem with the LG equipment/process/QA. (We know Hyundai suffered the same problem, and is replacing all of their packs.)

As far as other manufacturers, there was an ID.3 that recently caught fire shortly after it was disconnected from Level 2 charging. I haven't seen anything on a root cause, but my understanding is that they use LG cells as well. (Ford uses LG cells in the Mach-E as well, but Sandy mentioned that they were packaged differently than the ones in the ID.3. I don't know if that is just a difference in the module design or if the cell design is different as well.)

I suspect there will be a lot more to come regarding LG and the pouch cells that they have manufactured for EVs.

 

[Jeff N]

(Ford uses LG cells in the Mach-E as well, but Sandy mentioned that they were packaged differently than the ones in the ID.3. I don't know if that is just a difference in the module design or if the cell design is different as well.)

The Ford Mach-e cells visually look pretty much like the Bolt ones although I didn’t measure it carefully so the overall relative dimensions could have been scaled-up a little bit.

You can see a photo of the Ford pack and a sample cell in this article I wrote back when the car was first introduced.

Mustang Mach-E powertrain: up close and personal

Ford’s new Mustang Mach-E is now out of the barn and into the spotlight. What makes it run? What’s under that body sheetmetal that makes it go without the vroom vroom gasoline engine? W…

electricrevs.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Aren't the Hyundai Kona ones the same type also from LG ? And also under recall with a 90% charge restriction in the meantime ?

 

[Jeff N]

Aren't the Hyundai Kona ones the same type also from LG ? And also under recall with a 90% charge restriction in the meantime ?

Pretty much. GM claimed initially that the problem was different but the Kona problem was identified as the anode tab becoming mangled during manufacturing.

LG Energy Solution Reveals Suspected Cause For Kona Electric Fires

LG Energy Solution made a clarifying statement about the Hyundai Kona Electric recall and clarified which was the suspected cause for the fires.

insideevs.com

 

[JRP3]

Mixed review

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

OMG Sandy was in such a bad mood right from the start of that video. No weird rock music, complaining about how "angry" Korean cars always look, how stupid it was for them to name it after the guy who burned down Rome and what "crap" Kia usually makes. All before he even walked up to the car!

Then I realized I had forgotten to change the speed to 1.25X and bam! He perked right up and began praising the quality and various features and options.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Rivian reviews are starting to hit. Motor Trend loves everything but the UI (which is still being tweaked). I still can't get past the goofy front

 

[JRP3]

I still can't get past the goofy front

Yeah that's really my only problem with the design, those headlights.

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

Yeah that's really my only problem with the design, those headlights.

Wait. What?

 

[JRP3]

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

Rivian reviews are starting to hit. Motor Trend loves everything but the UI (which is still being tweaked). I still can't get past the goofy front

I know we're in a Tesla microcosm here but still, most Americans have at least heard of the company in passing. How is it possible that no one at Motor Trend has? I mean, they literally have *one* job.

Those morons were confounded by the Tesla-designed UI and dashboard of the Rivian, as if it was their first time ever seeing a Tesla! How could that be? It wasn't even some weird beta version of Tesla's UI either - just the same old Model 3/Y interface we've all known for years. Were they seriously confused just because the wood had a slightly different stain color than they were used to?

At 4:00 in that clip Beavis notes that "All 3 of the domestics are bringing out electric pickup trucks, Ford, Oldsmobile and Saturn or something". Huh? How did he "forget" the *largest* domestic automaker? You know, the one with the largest market cap of any automaker in the history of the world? Maybe more familiar as the world's largest EV producer? Or sometimes known as the company that is starting production of the most well known electric pickup truck ever?

 

[Doggydogworld]

I know we're in a Tesla microcosm here but still, most Americans have at least heard of the company in passing. How is it possible that no one at Motor Trend has? I mean, they literally have *one* job.

Not heard of it??? They literally say "Rivian has taken a Tesla-like approach,"

Those morons were confounded by the Tesla-designed UI

???
Tesla did not design Rivian's UI.

as if it was their first time ever seeing a Tesla! How could that be? It wasn't even some weird beta version of Tesla's UI either - just the same old Model 3/Y interface we've all known for years.

WTF are you talking about? This is not a Tesla UI, and certainly not a 3/Y UI. It may look similar, just as iPhone UI looks similar to Android, but they're different. Not all car touchscreen UIs are created equal -- look at all the complaints about ID3/ID4. Maybe Rivian has screwy menu nesting or something. MT didn't give a detailed review because Rivian is still tweaking it.

Of course some people, including some reviewers, prefer dedicated buttons for commonly-used operations. They won't be happy no matter how well you design your touchscreen UI.

At 4:00 in that clip Beavis notes that "All 3 of the domestics are bringing out electric pickup trucks, Ford, Oldsmobile and Saturn or something". Huh? How did he "forget" the *largest* domestic automaker? You know, the one with the largest market cap of any automaker in the history of the world?

Nobody is the real world measures "largest automaker" by market cap. Otherwise Rivian would be the "second largest domestic automaker" and Lucid would be fifth. Rivian and Lucid and even Tesla are measured against the "Big 3", who make millions of cars in the US. Heck, even Toyota makes ~1.5m vehicles per year here and isn't considered one of the Big 3.

I can't see people outside of the Tesla bubble calling CT a "pickup", either. Truck, maybe, though more creative names are also possible....

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

There's no argument to be had here, Tesla designed the Rivian UI and obviously much of the interior. You could argue that Rivian might not have had the legal right to use Tesla's design, I don't know. But it is Tesla's design. And FYI, Apple designed the UI for Android so that's not a great comparison. We can second-guess the legality of Samsung's adoption of Apple's UI, but we can't debate the fact that Apple created it. Samsung didn't just take an old Motorola flip phone, say "we can do better" and magically arrive at a near exact copy of Apple's UI out of nowhere. Nor did Rivian look at an old Buick Skylark and say "we can do better" and arrive at Tesla's UI. They both said: "let's copy this [Apple/Tesla design] as precisely as we possibly can without getting sued."

And I'm not saying that Rivian made a poor choice in using Tesla's interior, or even that it was illegal. I'm just saying that Beavis and Butthead were pathetic in their feigned surprise by the Tesla UI, as if they, as freakin' CAR EXPERTS, had somehow never seen a Tesla before.

As for electric American pickups, Beavis said "All 3 of the domestics", not "high-volume domestics" or "established domestics", but "All domestics" so you'd think that would include the most domestic of all domestics, especially with 1.3M Cybertruck orders already in the queue. And recall that Tesla has a plan to produce those 1.3M trucks within a few years while Ford is just hoping to eventually reach 80K/year and Rivian only plans to make maybe 10K of the 100K Amazon vans that Jeff bought by the end of next year. So again, whatever your definition of American electric truck manufacturer is, it must begin with the word "Tesla" and for Motor Trend to be entirely unaware of that is inexcusable.

 

[JRP3]

I can't see people outside of the Tesla bubble calling CT a "pickup", either.

Why, because the pickup bed sides are slanted? It has a cab and a bed, functions exactly like a pickup.

 

[Doggydogworld]

And FYI, Apple designed the UI for Android so that's not a great comparison.

LOL. I had a Palm Pilot with similar UI a decade before Apple launched the iPhone. There are only so many ways to put icons and menus on a small screen. And Apple has "stolen" things from Android, too. That's not to take away from Apple's very real innovations. Or Tesla's. But saying Tesla designed Rivian's UI leads people to think Rivian hired Tesla, or licensed their UI or copied it item for item like some Chinese companies do. None of which is remotely true.

As for electric American pickups, Beavis said "All 3 of the domestics",

And people know he means the "Big 3". Vernacular isn't always 100% technically correct, but people know what you mean. Just like not all "Silicon Valley" companies are actually located in Silicon Valley. Or when people used to say "the market was up 20 points today" and everyone knew they meant the DJIA, which is only 30 companies and nowhere near the entire market.

Why, because the pickup bed sides are slanted? It has a cab and a bed, functions exactly like a pickup.

El Camino had cab and bed, but people call them El Caminos instead of pickups. They don't call flatbeds pickups, either ("it's a girl, my lord, in a flatbed Ford, slowin' down to take a look at me").

Then there's the whole unibody issue, another sticking point with pickup people. If others copy the design we'll get a generic term like pointy truck. Otherwise they'll just say Cybertruck. Either way people will know what you're talking about. Just don't say pickup then drive up in a flatbed/El Camino/CT, lol.

 

[JRP3]

El Camino had cab and bed, but people call them El Caminos instead of pickups.

That and the Ford Ranchero were car based and weren't called trucks of any sort. Cyber is closer to a pickup truck than either of those two in all aspects, most specifically utility. If it works exactly like a pickup but better...though I do agree most people will call it a truck since "pickup truck" isn't used much any more even with conventional pickups.

 

[wdolson]

Why, because the pickup bed sides are slanted? It has a cab and a bed, functions exactly like a pickup.

I heard an argument that the target market for the Cybertruck is not the F-150 and Silverado market, but the Jeep market. Jeep makes some pickup like truck based vehicles, but they are marketed to end consumers are recreational truck-like vehicles rather than work trucks. The Cybertruck could potentially put a big dent in Jeep's market.