Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Doggydogworld]

Pretty sure Elon’s comments about 50% annual growth didn’t start with 2021 as the base year

"Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries"

That's straight from last month's shareholder update. It's clearly forward looking, not anchored in 2020. This is absurd. Neither Musk nor official company guidance ever said 50% growth would continue through 2030. They say 50% for several years, which is extremely impressive, but then the law of large numbers will kick in.

 

[ZsoZso]

I was very pleasantly surprised to spot this EV bus today in service in my local city:

I did not know such buses existed, let alone being in regular service already in Ontario.

 

[wdolson]

"Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries"

That's straight from last month's shareholder update. It's clearly forward looking, not anchored in 2020. This is absurd. Neither Musk nor official company guidance ever said 50% growth would continue through 2030. They say 50% for several years, which is extremely impressive, but then the law of large numbers will kick in.

50% growth for 9 years is 38X, which is unrealistic.

I was very pleasantly surprised to spot this EV bus today in service in my local city:

I did not know such buses existed, let alone being in regular service already in Ontario.

The post showed the data instead of the picture. Did it look like this?
TTC looking to add 300 new electric buses to Toronto streets | Urbanized

 

[ZsoZso]

The post showed the data instead of the picture. Did it look like this?
TTC looking to add 300 new electric buses to Toronto streets | Urbanized

What I saw was more traditional looking (possibly a conversion), let me try again:

 

[wdolson]

What I saw was more traditional looking (possibly a conversion), let me try again:

View attachment 738281

That does look like a conversion. The grating where the back window would go on an old bus is there for the diesel engine which is no longer there. Seattle has had hybrid buses with connectors to overhead wires for around 30 years. They run on diesel outside of downtown and then switch to the overhead wires when they get into downtown. They look kind of like that bus from behind with a trapeze thing on the middle top. If some Toronto buses already had electric drive, replacing the diesel with batteries would probably be a fairly easy conversion.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465678661042913284

Feels a lot like this scene from Kung Fury

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

At first I thought that whole dance routine thing was egregiously unnecessary. But then I looked at the car.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466643830128713729

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466643830128713729

Alex twisting facts again. First, his numbers are off, e.g. August was 7023.

I have ID at ~55k through November. They should end up around 70k. Early last year VW Group's 2021 forecast was a bit over 100k BEVs in China. That's all BEVs (Porsche Taycan, VW e-Lavida, Sol E20x, etc.), not just ID. They should easily meet that. It is a low bar, dialed way back from earlier forecasts of 350-400k, and I've battled VW apologists over this. I don't know why they decided to dial back, but they set that course long before launching ID4 and it's absurd to claim their steep monthly ramp is "devastating".

 

[Acroyear]

Saw a Rivian in the flesh today on my daily walk. Since I live close to the Tesla factory in Fremont, I wonder if Tesla is doing competitive analysis. If it weren’t for the Rivian branding on the side, it would look like any other truck on the road.

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

I doubt Rivian could have any technology worthy of "competitive analysis" by any automaker.

The truck is thoughtfully designed, well equipped and nicely styled but you can just watch any random YouTube video review and see all that in less than 10 minutes. The company has never produced anything other than these few handmade prototypes so it's pretty certain that they don't have any brilliant manufacturing technology or design.

 

[RobStark]

1) No styling on a Tesla currently on the road is as unique as Rivian headlights. Most people dislike these headlights. Most people dislike all the Cybertruck styling.

2) 2 years ago top of the line Cybertruck had 3 motors. After Rivian introduced 4 motor trucks and tank turn Cybertruck now will offer 4 motor trucks with the ability to turn like a tank. Rivian tank turn functionality will come over a future over the air update. Sound familiar?

3) The 200+ R1Ts registered with various DMVs and legally driving on public roads without manufacture plates are not prototypes.

4) Tesla would be stupid not to buy a Hummer EV, R1T, and Ford Lightning as soon as possible, tear them down and do a thorough analysis. Even to confirm there is nothing technologically significant. Tesla is not stupid.

 

[JRP3]

Even to confirm there is nothing technologically significant.

They'll be able to conclude it from the specifications and performance. If no parameters are significantly different than expected there is unlikely to be any technologically significant design or components.

 

[nativewolf]

Alex twisting facts again. First, his numbers are off, e.g. August was 7023.

I have ID at ~55k through November. They should end up around 70k. Early last year VW Group's 2021 forecast was a bit over 100k BEVs in China. That's all BEVs (Porsche Taycan, VW e-Lavida, Sol E20x, etc.), not just ID. They should easily meet that. It is a low bar, dialed way back from earlier forecasts of 350-400k, and I've battled VW apologists over this. I don't know why they decided to dial back, but they set that course long before launching ID4 and it's absurd to claim their steep monthly ramp is "devastating".

Seems that he is saying it is 53% of ID target which is devestating. You don't think he has the right numbers, ok. Where is your 7023 number from? Either way...it's a unimpressive number and directionally he's correct, nitpick on the exact number all you want, the rollout has been weak. In country that has had limitless demand for good cars they are struggling to get close to plans (already dialed back). That's a worthy comment for someone observing China and VW. BEV sales by VW in China are weak. BTW- another bond default today by a housing developer.

 

[wdolson]

Seems that he is saying it is 53% of ID target which is devestating. You don't think he has the right numbers, ok. Where is your 7023 number from? Either way...it's a unimpressive number and directionally he's correct, nitpick on the exact number all you want, the rollout has been weak. In country that has had limitless demand for good cars they are struggling to get close to plans (already dialed back). That's a worthy comment for someone observing China and VW. BEV sales by VW in China are weak. BTW- another bond default today by a housing developer.

Between the Chinese economy being wobbly and the Chinese preferring to buy their own brands if possible, it's getting tougher for foreign companies to sell their cars in China, even if made there. That's a disaster for legacy automakers. They have relied on making their profits in China.

 

[nativewolf]

Between the Chinese economy being wobbly and the Chinese preferring to buy their own brands if possible, it's getting tougher for foreign companies to sell their cars in China, even if made there. That's a disaster for legacy automakers. They have relied on making their profits in China.

yeah they can make "profit" there but they often can't export the profits. I'd suggest GAAP take such "profits" into account. But I digress

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

....

2) 2 years ago top of the line Cybertruck had 3 motors. After Rivian introduced 4 motor trucks and tank turn Cybertruck now will offer 4 motor trucks with the ability to turn like a tank. Rivian tank turn functionality will come over a future over the air update. Sound familiar?
...

Citation needed. As far as I am aware, Musk mentioned a crab walk but not a tank turn.

 

[JRP3]

Tank turn would be easy to implement in software.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tank turn would be easy to implement in software.

Would it really? Rivian says that it isn't easy, and they still haven't got it working reliably enough to make it available to their customers.

It might be easier if you had 4 wheel independent steering, but we don't know if that is going to happen or not. (I would think not likely.)

 

[JRP3]

With individual motors you switch one side into reverse and the other side forward, even without steering how could the vehicle fail to turn?