While true there is pressure there, they might not be able to land the battery chemistry, production volume, or battery prices in order to make good on their promised specs. And therefore, they may ship without meeting those specs or push off yet again into the future.
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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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While true there is pressure there, they might not be able to land the battery chemistry, production volume, or battery prices in order to make good on their promised specs. And therefore, they may ship without meeting those specs or push off yet again into the future.
But you don't understand, to be a serious person skeptic around here you have to lap up all the vaporware and distant concept EV cars - 'tesla killers' - big autos are talking about and then shrug off questions about where these other gigafactories are being built right now and if they are serious why aren't they being building them right now at the same speed and urgency as tesla/panasonic? all while being extremely skeptical of model 3 execution.
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I am going to state the obvious here. There are a lot of drivers to put behind the wheel of a BEV, many more than Tesla can produce for. My hope is the likes of Chrysler, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Faraday Futures, etc turn out many compelling electric vehicles. Full disclosure, I am long Tesla.
3Victoria
Active Member
The more the merrier! I would be interested in a BMW Mini EV at a fair price. The VW concept looks good, too. But they have to be competitive -- fast charging, adequate range, etc. at a competitive price.
Unfortunately imho it will take a few bankruptcies before that happens.
They have 375k pre-orders for the model 3 already. And they said a while ago they plan on doing their own interior finished prototype reveal. Their last one was a huge success it would seem foolish to do the second reveal at a auto show.
3Victoria
Active Member
Yes, having so many preorders is actually a problem for Tesla -- it forces moving targets up and increases $ requirements. They don't want to make the problem worse by pushing demand buttons!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Mark Harvey
Member
People tend to lump Tesla as only competing with battery electric vehicles. The true competitor set is all vehicles (fossil fuel, hybrids, BEV). This is counter-intuitive to how many people think about competition. Introductions of new electric vehicles by other auto manufactures is no different to the business of Tesla as if they introduced a new fossil fuel car.
In my case when I was looking at cars, I didn't consider any other EV. The only other considerations were ICE cars and IMO Tesla's cars are the only EVs out there that can compete head to head with ICE. In most areas Tesla's blow the competition out of the water which is why I bought one.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
LG Chem Starts Construction Its Largest EV Battery Plant in Poland
“LG Chem has officially begun construction of its European battery factory in Poland, and will invest some $360 million into the facility by the end of 2018.”
“LG Chem will have established a global production…of more than 280,000 batteries for pure high-performance EVs.”
LG Chem the main cell supplier for all major OEMs out of China, BMW, and Tesla will have global capacity for 280k 200+ mile BEVs by the end of 2018.
That gives Tesla roughly 60% battery pack market share.
“LG Chem has officially begun construction of its European battery factory in Poland, and will invest some $360 million into the facility by the end of 2018.”
“LG Chem will have established a global production…of more than 280,000 batteries for pure high-performance EVs.”
LG Chem the main cell supplier for all major OEMs out of China, BMW, and Tesla will have global capacity for 280k 200+ mile BEVs by the end of 2018.
That gives Tesla roughly 60% battery pack market share.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
How do you deduce the 60% market share from those statements? Yes, LG will have a part of the market (sized 280k "batteries" whatever that unit is) but from that, and the obvious fact that if LG has 280k "batteries" in 2018 that the total market must be anything above 280k "batteries" (duh), how do you conclude that Tesla ends up with 60% of that market?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
This year, there should be about 600,000 plug-ins sold, right?
The average plug in battery is only about 20 kWh, not the 50 required for 200 mile range. There are a LOT of sub 20kWh plugins especially in China.
280k worth of 200 mile batteries is all that will be needed to fill demand for 2016 plug ins.
2017 is anybodies guess. Can Tesla grow it's higher priced Model S and X models at a geometric rate?
Will GM sell a significant number of 60kWh battery cars?
Will an unknown 3rd player in the Big Battery game step up?
The average plug in battery is only about 20 kWh, not the 50 required for 200 mile range. There are a LOT of sub 20kWh plugins especially in China.
280k worth of 200 mile batteries is all that will be needed to fill demand for 2016 plug ins.
2017 is anybodies guess. Can Tesla grow it's higher priced Model S and X models at a geometric rate?
Will GM sell a significant number of 60kWh battery cars?
Will an unknown 3rd player in the Big Battery game step up?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
500k what? What is the "batteries" unit that's referred to when discussing LG Chem's 2018 production?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Look the data you quoted said:
It says 280k "batteries" and not "batteries for 280k vehicles".
You sort of have to. Volts are a big seller, and their PHEV battery is bigger than some China EV batteries. Hell, it's nearly as big as Chevrolet's own EV, the Spark EV. 18.4 vs 19.1?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Good grief. I thought this was rather obvious in this forum.
Korean companies say "batteries" for battery packs. As opposed to battery cells.
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