Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[stopcrazypp]

The article is hyping basic lithium battery technology that others have been using for years, with no supporting data. Toyota put an 8kWh pack in a plugin hybrid, wow.

That's exactly what I read. It's a puff piece targeted to a public that doesn't know any better. What Toyota is doing is catching up with what others have been using for years and then talking about as if they made some sort of huge innovation and that suddenly lithium ion makes sense whereas it didn't before.

 

[SteveG3]

not surprisingly, with German automakers substantially tipping their hands on their movement toward the BEV future last month, it looks like Toyota has started their pivot on their HFC vs. lithium ion BEV story

Warming to lithium-ion, Toyota charges up its battery options

That's exactly what I read. It's a puff piece targeted to a public that doesn't know any better. What Toyota is doing is catching up with what others have been using for years and then talking about as if they made some sort of huge innovation and that suddenly lithium ion makes sense whereas it didn't before.

(bolding added)

precisely... it's the rubbish they are trying to use today as cover for pivoting from their years of hydrogen is the future rubbish (which they tired to use to cover their resist and dismiss the move from ICE to EVs as long as possible strategy).

 

[Saghost]

Interesting that Toyota is working with Panasonic too and citing 'improvements on impurity'. I am wondering how much of these improvements are proprietary to Toyota and how much can be carried over to the manufacturing process for Tesla by Panasonic. And the other way around too as well : how much of the chemistry improvements Tesla worked on with Panasonic will be available for Toyota (and others). This goes to the heart of the question of how much of the intellectual property behind the batteries on a cell level is Panasonic's or owned by its largest partners instead.

Secondly, the article notes that Toyota has been able to shrink the cell. It makes sense to see this as opposed to the common 18650 standard. Meanwhile Tesla is on a path of increasing cell sizes. Maybe the different directions reflect design optimizations for large batteries in pure EVs versus smaller batteries in plugins?

The article mentioned 95 cells in the pack - which if it is a ~400V device means a single string in series, and if it is 8 kWh means pouch cells with more capacity then the original Volt cells.

I don't think they are shrinking cells to anywhere near Tesla levels.

 

[Fallenone]

Don't know why nobody has posted this yet, but I think it's pretty impressive. I expected this company can come out something competitive with Model S and Model X (minus autonomous driving part) in 2 - 3 years.

The NIO EP9 is the 'world's fastest' all-electric supercar

 

[JRP3]

Don't know why nobody has posted this yet,

Because thread NextEV reveal 1,341 hp all-electric hypercar

 

[Fallenone]

Because thread NextEV reveal 1,341 hp all-electric hypercar

Ah thatnks!

 

[kenliles]

I expected this company can come out something competitive with Model S and Model X (minus autonomous driving part) in 2 - 3 years.

The NIO EP9 is the 'world's fastest' all-electric supercar

Just opinion of course;
but a competitive Model S/X without autonomous driving in 2-3 years is a contridiction in terms. ANY EV in 2-3 years without autonomous driving won't even compete with M3. It's many times more likely that Tesla will have an autonomous Super-Car in 2-3 more years IMHO.

 

[Cattledog]

Just opinion of course;
but a competitive Model S/X without autonomous driving in 2-3 years is a contridiction in terms. ANY EV in 2-3 years without autonomous driving won't even compete with M3. It's many times more likely that Tesla will have an autonomous Super-Car in 2-3 more years IMHO.

Yes, we've been led to believe a sub 2.2 second roadster is on the way. I suspect it's unveiled in 2019, available in 2020.

 

[wdolson]

Any hypercar is already out in the rarified air. There will be other EVs that claim bragging rights over the performance of the Model S P100D, but all those cars will be very limited production, 50 a year is high volume in that market. And they will likely be very expensive too, probably pushing $1 million, or at least $500K.

The thing the S P100D has that no supercar will ever be able to match is it is a daily driver that can be taken to the drag strip and compete with much more expensive cars. There are no other competitive, stock drag cars that can take a family of 7 to and from the drag strip with ease.

The P100D is a practical car that is also a supercar. It doesn't look like a 12 year old's wet dream, but that's part of its charm. It's also around $150K when most other cars with similar performance are starting at 3-4X the price.

Having a super sports car with autonomous driving is kind of a ridiculous concept. These cars are sold to super rich people who have warehouses full of expensive sports cars. Some of these collections run into the hundreds of millions. These cars are rarely driven and when they are, they are taken out to have fun driving them. Autonomy would be a system nobody would ever want to use in these cars. The only time they would be used would be in the future decades from now where there will be roads like the interstates that are autonomous vehicles only. And the cars will be driven in autonomous mode only when required by law.

Super cars devalue dramatically for every mile driven. People keep meticulous records on these cars so they can justify the highest possible sales price when they sell. These cars are investments, not daily drivers.

There is a guy named Doug DeMuro on YouTube who does crazy things with cars. He has tried driving an Aston Martin as a daily driver for a year. He also drove a Ferrari as a daily driver and just recently bought a Dodge Viper. His videos are very funny, but he also touches on what life is like driving even a low end super car as a daily driver. It's an entirely different world from the rest of the car world and plays by very different rules.

Doug DeMuro

The S/X P100D is more of an expensive and super version of super versions of everyday cars like the Dodge Hellcat. Its performance is beyond what that car is capable of in most ways (though the Hellcat has a better top speed), but its intended to be driven like you would a normal car: commuting to work, taking the kids to school, etc. You can go out and have fun with it, but collectors are not buying P100Ds to sit up on jacks in a climate controlled warehouse and only taken out once or twice a year. The fact that the P100D can outperform super cars intended for that market is what's driving the super car market to go electric and the P100D will likely be a paltry also ran compared to those cars in a few years, but Elon is not going to cry about it. Tesla will lose very few sales because of it.

 

[wdolson]

Yes, we've been led to believe a sub 2.2 second roadster is on the way. I suspect it's unveiled in 2019, available in 2020.

Elon said sometime this year that while he'd love to do a next gen Roadster it's currently off the development map and is unlikely to ever happen before a lot of other more important vehicles reach market. If there is ever a next gen Roadster, it's more likely going to be in the late 2020s after the pickup, the semi truck, and some other vehicles are in full production.

 

[dennis]

Super cars devalue dramatically for every mile driven. People keep meticulous records on these cars so they can justify the highest possible sales price when they sell. These cars are investments, not daily drivers.

There is a guy named Doug DeMuro on YouTube who does crazy things with cars. He has tried driving an Aston Martin as a daily driver for a year. He also drove a Ferrari as a daily driver and just recently bought a Dodge Viper. His videos are very funny, but he also touches on what life is like driving even a low end super car as a daily driver. It's an entirely different world from the rest of the car world and plays by very different rules.

I know I don't fit your use profile, but I own a 2012 McLaren 12C that I use as a daily driver 2 days per week on average. Go to the gym/golf course/grocery store etc. Golf bag goes in the passenger seat and 4 grocery bags fit in the frunk. I rack up about 12K miles/year on my Model S and 4K on the 12C; odometer is currently at 23K miles.

My P85D is the best sport sedan I have owned, but the McLaren is in another dimension in handling and speed from Point A to Point B. That's why I feel fortunate to be able to own both. It is built by an engineering focused company just like Tesla. In fact it is the advanced technology that attracted me and several others here like @lolachampcar and @fiksegts to both brands.

I disagree with your point on depreciation. Most super cars, with the notable exception of some Ferrari models and limited series models suffer significant depreciation the moment they are driven off the lot. The mileage hit is less than the being used hit.

BTW as part of their 6 year plan McLaren expects half of their new models to be performance hybrids. They have also committed to building a BEV hypercar prototype and then evaluate whether it makes sense as a production offering in that class of vehicle.

 

[Fallenone]

Just opinion of course;
but a competitive Model S/X without autonomous driving in 2-3 years is a contridiction in terms. ANY EV in 2-3 years without autonomous driving won't even compete with M3. It's many times more likely that Tesla will have an autonomous Super-Car in 2-3 more years IMHO.

Autonomous driving is huge of course. But I doubt it is an essential feature for every buyer on the market. Some people just like driving so a car (ICE or EV) can still appeal to this group of people without autonomous driving as long as it has good performance, attractive appearance, and the right price.

 

[3Victoria]

Well, to this point AP can be turned on or off. I am sure most people will find it beneficial in at least some circumstances, such as highway, traffic jams. In no way does it prevent the from enjoyable personal driving. So it is a big thing, even for them.

 

[Model 3]

Well, to this point AP can be turned on or off. I am sure most people will find it beneficial in at least some circumstances, such as highway, traffic jams. In no way does it prevent the from enjoyable personal driving. So it is a big thing, even for them.

While true - except for the "big thing", it does have a cost. I love to drive, and my driving habits makes highways and traffic jams something I'm seldom experience, so my willingness to pay for, or to have any critical effect on a purchase is close to zero...

... this may of course change the day am so old that I risk to not be able - or allowed - to drive a car by my self any longer.

 

[RobStark]

Can Lucid succeed where others have failed?

Very long article. Highlights below.

It's not that Lucid -- formerly known as Atieva -- doesn't want publicity. Last week, the Chinese-backed startup announced plans for a $700 million factory in Casa Grande, Ariz., south of Phoenix. Next week, it plans a big splash near Silicon Valley to finally reveal the car's design and what it calls an innovative business model.

"We don't want to talk about it, we want to show it," Peter Rawlinson, Lucid's chief technology officer, told Automotive News as he circled the car. "We haven't got a show car; our competitors have show cars. This is the real deal."

Powertrain: 100-kWh battery pack with 1,000 hp and a 300-mile range and a 0-to-60-mph time under 3 seconds; optional 130-kWh pack with a 400-mile range. Cheaper, shorter-range versions coming later.

Pricing: First Lucid sedans will be above $100,000, especially with high-dollar options such as executive-style reclining rear seats and a glass canopy roof. Eventually Lucid hopes to offer a version in the range of a BMW 5 series (figure $50,000 to $60,000).


Charging: Lucid says it has developed a new battery cell chemistry that allows for repeated fast charging without degrading capacity. This boosts the prospects of using a Lucid vehicle in a ride-sharing application with a 24-hour duty cycle.

Every car sold will come with Level 4 autonomous capability built in and ready to turn on pending regulatory approval. Much of that capability hinges on the use of solid-state lidar as a standard feature, which is where Lucid's plans get dicey.

For one thing, solid-state lidar is in its infancy. Any supplier that Lucid would use will be hard-pressed by 2018 to have a system that works as well as conventional lidar, which remains very expensive and physically hard to package on consumer vehicles.

Lucid plans to offset the cost of including lidar as a standard feature by selling the mapping data gathered by the sensors to third parties. The automaker sees such robust demand for this "big data" that its value could become the backbone of Lucid's overall business model.

This assumes that there will be vibrant demand for such data from parties that aren't gathering it themselves.

 

[wdolson]

I'm skeptical about their claims about a new battery chemistry. There are a lot of people chasing the unicorn of better battery chemistry and most of the players who have tried and failed have a lot more experience developing batteries than Lucid.

This could be another EV start up that fails to get anywhere, though it's likely somebody else will manage to successfully launch another EV company eventually.

We'll see.

 

[dalalsid]

Where is this repeated Lucid fast charging going to happen?

 

[techmaven]

Where is this repeated Lucid fast charging going to happen?

The bigger question is the battery chemistry and battery production. I am sure that if the battery chemistry issue and volume production was solved, then charging is a much smaller issue.

The fundamental problem I have with a number of the vehicles that have been announced relates to the batteries. The Porsche Mission-E for example, relies on battery chemistry that doesn't exist in production. The one that Fisker announced too. And so forth. Can you make a battery with high enough specific energy (~300Wh/kg at the cell level, >180 Wh/kg pack level), tolerates high c-rate discharge (4-6C) and high c-rate charge (1.5-3C), at less than $150/kWh while building 6+ GWh a year per 100,000 cars? And do it in 2 or 3 years? 4?

 

[scaesare]

Can Lucid succeed where others have failed?

Very long article. Highlights below.

....

Oh look!... an announcement by a startup with fanciful claims.

 

[Saghost]

Oh look!... an announcement by a startup with fanciful claims.

Is that better or worse than getting another Audi press release?