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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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Funny how the vaporware Tesla 3 that'll never be built on time or even in 2017 started production ahead of schedule, and the magazine response to that is articles about a car VW might produce three years later that VW promises will cost less then than the 3 does now.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Yes, Ford is inclined to gimped limited run PHEVs and BEVs well into the 2020s.
It takes Ford ~$1.5B and 5 years to create an all new platform.
They can have a pretty good one today. Probably for less.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Such a silly idea. You can't undercut a vehicle 3 years into the future...and not with an even more pedestrian looking pseudo-futuristic Golf.
For some reason this reminded me of an ancient movie, The Billion Dollar Bubble. An insurance company discovers by accident that if they mount the same tape of customer transactions again, their accounts look better, and the stock price goes up. True story by the way. Anyway.
Spoiler:
At the end of the movie, as they are dragging the CEO out, he screams "We'll announce a merger with Exxon". (It's an insurance company!)
VW pays to advertise. Gotta keep the advertisers happy.
Lucid may have a design, but as we know from Tesla's early stumbles, designing a cool looking prototype and making a production car are two different things. Ford may just be taking the "not invented here" stance, or they may have looked at Lucid's design and saw it would take some major modification to build efficiently, or was a mess of a design, or a host of other problems a startup company can have. In other words, Ford may have looked at Lucid and figured it wasn't worth the trouble.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) We are talking the second take for Model S Chief Engineer. Had a few years to think about it. Go over 2012 Model S mistakes and think about solutions. We are not talking about a dolt's first rodeo.
2) Ford made a comprehensive engineering review in 3 hrs and decided to make a pass? LOL.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Any factory opening in North America for Ford is a closed shop per agreements with American, Canadian, and Mexican Unions.
I don't know Ford's agreements with European and Asian Unions but I take it is similar. Just like their agreements with US dealers prevents them from opening factory stores.
I don't know if Ford has any non-union factories and where what country they could where they have reasonable expectations of opening a non-union factory.
I did say that it could have been "not invented here".
It does take more than one person to make a successful project. The chief engineer may know what he's doing, but it doesn't mean that internal conflict with other key players didn't result in some bad decisions. The company is in enough trouble they are seeking a buyer.
Making a Model S competitor as the first car out the gate is a mistake. The Model S was the answer in 2012, but the world has moved on. Elon's plan was to start with a high end car to prove to the marketplace that electric cars could be compelling as well as lead to a mass market car.
It's pretty clear the market in North America at least is focused on SUVs/CUVs. Rather than a premium sedan, the better play would be an EV SUV and to make it as affordable as possible.
In any case, it's still tough to say why Ford passed.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I did say that it could have been "not invented here".
It does take more than one person to make a successful project. The chief engineer may know what he's doing, but it doesn't mean that internal conflict with other key players didn't result in some bad decisions. The company is in enough trouble they are seeking a buyer.
Making a Model S competitor as the first car out the gate is a mistake. The Model S was the answer in 2012, but the world has moved on. Elon's plan was to start with a high end car to prove to the marketplace that electric cars could be compelling as well as lead to a mass market car.
It's pretty clear the market in North America at least is focused on SUVs/CUVs. Rather than a premium sedan, the better play would be an EV SUV and to make it as affordable as possible.
In any case, it's still tough to say why Ford passed.
Several of the top Lucid engineers are ex- Tesla engineers .
Some say work life balance issues drove them away from Tesla.
Some say Elon's authoritarian style drove them away.
Almost everyone who has seen the Air up close has been impressed.
The further down market you go the greater scale you need to make a competitive product.
It would be absolutely stupid to go down market, unless you knew a legacy OEM was going to buy you out.
A CUV/SUV by its very nature is less aerodynamic and gives you less range. The key metric potential ICE converts consider when putting a BEV on the maybe list or on the definitely no list.
Faraday Future did a CUV and is going down in flames.
In 2010 CUV/SUVs were surging. Liftback sedans were absolutely not. They were an absolute tiny niche. I absolutely hated the notion when I read about it in Car & Driver. Then I saw it. It looked like a Jaguar or Maserati 4 dr coupe.
Whatever Lucid designed I would not give them, as a venture capitalist, $240M much less $700m.
On the one hand competing with Tesla and on the other hand the limited editions from Porsche,Audi,BMW,Mercedes,Jaguar,Volvo and whatever else pops up seems insurmountable.
Unless your an established automaker. And you can bring Tier 1 Supplier contacts, Distribution know how,glider manufacture know how, and credibility from the consumer perspective. Many people would be far more comfortable buying a car with a warranty backed by Ford Motor Co or Toyota Motor Company.
IMHO I think Lucid need to start with a small scale production, perhaps a different type of vehicle derived from the prototypes. A common type of vehicle in Asia is the minivan hotels use to shuttle guests to/from the airports. With fixed routes the charging would be simpler. Something like this: Toyota Alphard - Wikipedia
dennis
Model S Plaid
The Road From High-Octane To High-Tech Is Dangerous. Father Of 'Tesla-Beater' Jaguar Says Why
VW is not the only car company beating its chest about a future "Tesla beater".
I stopped in the San Jose Jaguar dealer to inquire about the i-Pace. The salesman was familiar with the car and said it would be available mid-2018. They aren't taking deposits yet but he took my email address so he could contact me when they do. He said he had had 12-15 such inquiries so far.
In contrast the young sales guy at the Audi dealership down the street hadn't heard of the e-tron Quattro. His manager had but wasn't interested in coming out of his office to talk to me about it.
VW is not the only car company beating its chest about a future "Tesla beater".
I stopped in the San Jose Jaguar dealer to inquire about the i-Pace. The salesman was familiar with the car and said it would be available mid-2018. They aren't taking deposits yet but he took my email address so he could contact me when they do. He said he had had 12-15 such inquiries so far.
In contrast the young sales guy at the Audi dealership down the street hadn't heard of the e-tron Quattro. His manager had but wasn't interested in coming out of his office to talk to me about it.
To be fair, BEV is a much bigger opportunity for Jaguar than it is for Audi. It's a chance to break from what is a really bad reputation in ICEVs.
Interesting that the article didn't discuss two of Tesla's biggest advantages - the Supercharger network (or even DCFC in general) and Autopilot/autonomous driving.
For the rest, it sounds like they are doing it right, so it might be a worthy competitor when it arrives - if they address the charging concerns effectively.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Not surprising since the author is noted Tesla critic Bertel Schmidt.
Yup. "Ignore that silly new car from Tesla they're releasing this week, in five years we'll be building a car that'll blow it away, we promise..."
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