Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[RobStark]

You rightly pointed to it: "coming"


Porsche has a massive issue: they admitted that they only plan to produce 20k Mission-E per year.

We know the industry is behind Tesla and we know there is no competition right now. This is an indisputable fact and not worth beating this dead horse.

I Pace is more than just talk. We see the prototypes, they have signed deals Magna Steyr to produce them, and they have given Norwegians price list.

There is nothing "only 20k" about Porsche Mission E. That is more than they sell of all variants of Panamera. They sell about 240k units per year and half are Macan. They don't have the battery cells to mass produce a Macan BEV.

They have to start somewhere. Porsche superfast chargers plus Electrify America I think will be adequate and Porsche plus public chargers in Europe will be adequate. Given the inundation of Model 3 owners coming I think waiting times will be comparable.

VW Group Board of Directors has approved monies for new BEVs. They put tenders out for Cobalt and got a reality check on that front. They have invested 10% of needed seed money for North Volt Gigafactory. It seems they are moving past the BEVs by press releases phase.

 

[svp6]

You rightly pointed to it: "coming" - that's my whole point: for many years and 88 pages we have debated about "coming" vehicles.

Don't get me wrong: if Porsche makes a fantastic race & track car, they will sure sell a quite a few. But their bread and butter is now Macan & Cayenne - that's affluent soccer moms that want to go places, too. From what it says about Mission E it will not be a "track only" car like the GT3 - so how on earth are they planning to do this?!?

I-PACE official launch is set for March 1st. First deliveries expected q3. It is indeed still "coming", but actually very close. Most of reports also expect Audi's first e-tron SUV in 2018 - at least in Europe. This is great for the EVs - the more competition the better for everybody.

Of course having the supercharger network is an advantage. But Tesla started selling reasonable numbers way before the network developed. If Porsche delivers on their 800V promise of 15 min charging - and have a couple installed at most dealerships - I would not mind getting of the highway to charge. But I fear what RobStark is predicting: super expensive options driving the cost far north.

 

[techmaven]

Porsche plan's their 800v systems and fast chargers to be a competitive advantage.

So far they only have one station at USA headquarters and one in Germany at global headquarters.

But they plan 800v fast chargers between major cities where large concentration of Porsche owners live and rely on public chargers in Europe for the rest and on Electrify America in the USA. Northern Europe is starting to look Ok for public fast chargers. After VW Group spends $2B in the USA( $800M of that in California) that network will look similar to what Tesla has today. A few more stations but less charge points per station.

I suppose they all don't want to acknowledge the superiority of Tesla by sending their customers to Tesla branded stations.

So this Porsche article is very interesting:

New Possibilities with 800-Volt Charging

Note that it says 220 kW is where the battery cell is the limit. Looks like they are actually doing around 620 volts x 350 amps. The EVSE is rated for 1000 volts x 350 amps or 350 kW.

They discuss the Porsche Mission-E's 500 km range on NEDC rating. That's roughly 225 miles of EPA range. That probably means around 70-75 kWh of battery. To push 220 kW into it, that's 3C. That's very, very high charging c-rate. Cycle life might suffer dramatically.

 

[BriansTesla]

So this Porsche article is very interesting:

They discuss the Porsche Mission-E's 500 km range on NEDC rating. That's roughly 225 miles of EPA range. That probably means around 70-75 kWh of battery. To push 220 kW into it, that's 3C. That's very, very high charging c-rate. Cycle life might suffer dramatically.

I'm sure this has been discussed in other threads but I believe the maximum number of miles that can be added per time period in charging comes down to the efficiency of the vehicle, the capacity of the battery and the C rate that the cells can safely accept. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[techmaven]

I'm sure this has been discussed in other threads but I believe the maximum number of miles that can be added per time period in charging comes down to the efficiency of the vehicle, the capacity of the battery and the C rate that the cells can safely accept. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

That's correct. Assuming 225 miles of range and top notch efficiency of 125 MPGe combined, that's 1.8 gallons equivalent or 61 kWh (including charging losses). Assuming a lower efficiency of more like 105 MPGe, that's 71 kWh (again, with charging losses). That's battery sizes of 65 to 75 kWh with buffer. Assume it's 75 kWh. To achieve 220 kW charging, that's roughly 3C. With likely NMC 622 chemistry, that's rough. Even worse if it is NMC 811 chemistry.

Of course, Porsche could be sandbagging the range. For 220 kW, a 90-100 kWh pack would be 2.4C and 2.2C, both more reasonable but still aggressive.

 

[wdolson]

You rightly pointed to it: "coming" - that's my whole point: for many years and 88 pages we have debated about "coming" vehicles. There is NO vehicle that's actually existing to compete with Tesla. Not a single one. Despite all the "Tesla Killer" arguments, articles and announcements.

I'm quite amazed that Tesla is allowed to freely steal marketshare from everyone around and grow like crazy in a market otherwise characterised by being saturated and stale...



Porsche has a massive issue: they admitted that they only plan to produce 20k Mission-E per year. And they lag years behind Tesla with building their charging network. Let's just take 2017 - they would need to invest 5x the amount per car sold into their charging network just to keep up with Tesla on Model S & X (Tesla sold 100k Model S/X). Now Tesla expands into Model 3 - how will Porsche ever get a comparable charing network? And how will Porsche drivers ever be willing to compromise on ability to charge over a Tesla?

The beauty about the Super Charger network is, that it can now spread into thinly used territories. Yes, you will feel congestion in the frequented places, but there are more and more places that will be at the edges of the network. That's where true superiority of the network will show.

Don't get me wrong: if Porsche makes a fantastic race & track car, they will sure sell a quite a few. But their bread and butter is now Macan & Cayenne - that's affluent soccer moms that want to go places, too. From what it says about Mission E it will not be a "track only" car like the GT3 - so how on earth are they planning to do this?!?

Only producing 20K a year, they won't be putting many cars on the road. Tesla is able to build out the supercharger network because they are putting 5X that many cars on a road per year and they will soon be putting many more than that out per year. With only a small number of cars that will work with a particular charger, the network will probably end up fairly limited, which will further limit their market reach.

 

[techmaven]

Only producing 20K a year, they won't be putting many cars on the road. Tesla is able to build out the supercharger network because they are putting 5X that many cars on a road per year and they will soon be putting many more than that out per year. With only a small number of cars that will work with a particular charger, the network will probably end up fairly limited, which will further limit their market reach.

However, Porsche is part of the Volkswagen Group. They are building out a charging network for beyond the Porsche vehicles.

 

[Saghost]

I'm sure this has been discussed in other threads but I believe the maximum number of miles that can be added per time period in charging comes down to the efficiency of the vehicle, the capacity of the battery and the C rate that the cells can safely accept. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

In ideal conditions, yes. Some sessions are limited by the capacity of the charger module itself, overheating in the module, battery pack, or connector, temperature of the pack, or the capacity of the charging cable.

 

[RobStark]

Only producing 20K a year, they won't be putting many cars on the road. Tesla is able to build out the supercharger network because they are putting 5X that many cars on a road per year and they will soon be putting many more than that out per year. With only a small number of cars that will work with a particular charger, the network will probably end up fairly limited, which will further limit their market reach.

Porsche has capacity to make 20k Mission E the first year. Spokesman said they can increase if there is demand.

The Porsche superfast chargers are only a small part of the CCS capable network. Again Electrify America. In Europe Ecotricity, Fastned,Ionity, Ultra-E etc.

Mission E owners will not be dependent on Porsche Network for fast charging. It will just be a nice little bonus to travel between major cities.

First SF to LA then Seattle to San Diego.

Boston to New York. Then New York to Washington DC to Miami etc.

London to Paris to Berlin.

Oslo to Stockholm to Berlin to Rome.

 

[Reciprocity]

Only producing 20K a year, they won't be putting many cars on the road. Tesla is able to build out the supercharger network because they are putting 5X that many cars on a road per year and they will soon be putting many more than that out per year. With only a small number of cars that will work with a particular charger, the network will probably end up fairly limited, which will further limit their market reach.

Not to rain to much on your super charger advantage, but VW must build a multi billion dollar fast charging network because of diesel gate. The Porsche is still more then a year away, let's see how it competes with the 2019-2020 model S or even the performance version of the model 3. At the end of the day, 20,000 mission Es will be sold to dedicated Porsche buyers, not necessarily Tesla owners. Porsche might stop some of the bleeding of customers to Tesla but 20,000 barely scratches the surface and I don't think it will be competitive against the 2020 model S and/or the model 3 performance version, which could be 320 miles of range with the duel motor and 2.5 second 0-60 and take advantage of the very same VW fast charging network as well as the super charger network. So we know the final specs on the mission E or what it will even look like? Is it a big car like the panamera?

 

[RobStark]

. So we know the final specs on the mission E or what it will even look like? Is it a big car like the panamera?

1)No and 2) No. But the prototypes being tested look a lot uglier than the show car prototype.

3)It is supposed to be a midsize sedan with the interior volume of a Panamera due to packaging advantages of dedicated BEV.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I-PACE official launch is set for March 1st. First deliveries expected q3. It is indeed still "coming", but actually very close. Most of reports also expect Audi's first e-tron SUV in 2018 - at least in Europe. This is great for the EVs - the more competition the better for everybody.

I consider I-Pace to be the biggest near term threat to Tesla because it allows a competitive foothold into the hot compact crossover segment, where Tesla has no product. It’s also a very nice looking vehicle inside and out.

The I-Pace is not a slam dunk: it’s rear cargo volume is mediocre for the class at around 18 cubic feet. That’s roughly the same as a Lexus RX but about 30% smaller than an Acura RDX, both of which have similar footprint. The stated range of 220 miles on a 90 kWh battery is also a bit low, though I expect the finalized range could be 230-240 miles.

I expect however that this will be enough to win over some customers, even without their benefit of Superchargers. More importantly, it gets people introduced to a premium EV that isn’t a Tesla, which opens the door to future sales of Jag EVs.

 

[RobStark]

More importantly, it gets people introduced to a premium EV that isn’t a Tesla, which opens the door to future sales of Jag EVs.

It will introduce 13k people(households) per year at most for the next 3 years. Because that is Jaguar's contract with Magna Steyr.

Jag would have to make a major investment to increase capacity beyond that. Which I doubt they will make anytime soon.

 

[SteveG3]

You rightly pointed to it: "coming" - that's my whole point: for many years and 88 pages we have debated about "coming" vehicles. There is NO vehicle that's actually existing to compete with Tesla. Not a single one. Despite all the "Tesla Killer" arguments, articles and announcements.

I'm quite amazed that Tesla is allowed to freely steal marketshare from everyone around and grow like crazy in a market otherwise characterised by being saturated and stale...



Porsche has a massive issue: they admitted that they only plan to produce 20k Mission-E per year. And they lag years behind Tesla with building their charging network. Let's just take 2017 - they would need to invest 5x the amount per car sold into their charging network just to keep up with Tesla on Model S & X (Tesla sold 100k Model S/X). Now Tesla expands into Model 3 - how will Porsche ever get a comparable charing network? And how will Porsche drivers ever be willing to compromise on ability to charge over a Tesla?

The beauty about the Super Charger network is, that it can now spread into thinly used territories. Yes, you will feel congestion in the frequented places, but there are more and more places that will be at the edges of the network. That's where true superiority of the network will show.

Don't get me wrong: if Porsche makes a fantastic race & track car, they will sure sell a quite a few. But their bread and butter is now Macan & Cayenne - that's affluent soccer moms that want to go places, too. From what it says about Mission E it will not be a "track only" car like the GT3 - so how on earth are they planning to do this?!?

A year ago I started a thread on why I think this is happening and if why, if this in fact the reason, it is actually Tesla's largest moat.

The opening post is a bit long, but, here's a couple of paragraphs particularly relevant to what you are asking about,

"But, how can they ignore Tesla’s success?

The global auto market last year was roughly 88 million vehicles. It’s quite broadly expected to grow to about 100 million by 2020. Tesla’s aim is to reach 1 million in annual vehicle sales in 2020. Thus, the rest of the automakers can grow from 88 to 99 million units essentially ignoring Tesla and continuing to build ICE almost exclusively. By 2025 perhaps Tesla gets to 3 million vehicles sold annually. Even if the market stays flat at 100 million, do you stay up on that cliff with a 97 million vehicle market to split between the group of you, or take the 50/50 chance of surviving jumping off that cliff to chase the very slim rewards of competing with Tesla and everyone else for some of that extra 3 million vehicles sold?

But, that’s not how the free market works, you can’t put a hold on innovation, right?

In respect to this transition, the incumbent automakers effectively have the opportunity to act as an oligopoly. This is not necessarily a matter of explicit acts of collusion. Rather, the barriers of entry are so large, the number of players small enough, and the process of developing new vehicles so time and capital intensive, that all these incumbents can see what each other is doing. As long as no one else is jumping off the cliff (i.e., getting board approval to build a few gigafactories), that’s it, we’re all hanging out here up on the cliff for another few years making profits selling ICE vehicles."

The Fractured Tipping Point Moat

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, I think when describing competition, it is very helpful to be clear what we mean...

- another automaker releasing an EV for a similar price range and of similar appeal to a Tesla product

or

- other automakers products offerings lowering the rate at which Tesla's vehicle business is growing

The first category of competition may happen as soon as the next year or two.

I don't believe the second category of competition will happen for over a decade. That's not to say a specific Tesla product, like the most expensive, smallest market vehicles (new Roadster, S, X), will grow continue to grow in volumes without any impact from what other automakers are doing for that period. What I'm saying is that Tesla will have essentially unimpeded growth runway for an evolving product mix for at least a decade.

I linked a thread where I had already made a lengthy case for this last year at the end of the prior post here in this thread.

 

[scaesare]

I'm sure this has been discussed in other threads but I believe the maximum number of miles that can be added per time period in charging comes down to the efficiency of the vehicle, the capacity of the battery and the C rate that the cells can safely accept. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Certainly true, but those aren't the only factors that matter in practicality.

Even if those 3 factors could allow for 500KW charging there would be other design considerations

Higher voltages some with issues associated with needing greater conductor insulation, inverter/charger parts rated for higher voltages, more complex pack layouts with switching, etc...

Hager current requires larger conductors and possibly active cable cooling. Greater pack cooling mechanisms may be needed. Thermal losses are higher.

Cells with higher C-rates may not have longer cycle lives, or be as energy dense.


All of which is not to say there won't be advancements in the state of the art. But there aren't any magic bullets around... everything is a tradeoff. Including 800V.

 

[wdolson]

Not to rain to much on your super charger advantage, but VW must build a multi billion dollar fast charging network because of diesel gate. The Porsche is still more then a year away, let's see how it competes with the 2019-2020 model S or even the performance version of the model 3. At the end of the day, 20,000 mission Es will be sold to dedicated Porsche buyers, not necessarily Tesla owners. Porsche might stop some of the bleeding of customers to Tesla but 20,000 barely scratches the surface and I don't think it will be competitive against the 2020 model S and/or the model 3 performance version, which could be 320 miles of range with the duel motor and 2.5 second 0-60 and take advantage of the very same VW fast charging network as well as the super charger network. So we know the final specs on the mission E or what it will even look like? Is it a big car like the panamera?

Ultimately expansion of the BEV market is limited by battery availability. VW has announced their own GigaFactory, but it won't be up to full capacity until 2025. To build the Model S/X, Tesla is currently consuming 33% of the entire world's production to build 100K Model S/X a year. VW Group is going to have a hard time getting a hold of that kind of battery supply to build more than a relative handful of BEVs until their GF is ready.

I expect the hardware for the 800V packs is also going to be somewhat expensive. At minimum the cabling needs better insulation than a lower voltage pack. The higher the voltage, the easier it is to get an arc flash in an accident. 800V charging stations also have to be insulated better than Tesla superchargers. To get the high charging rates Porsche has advertised, I expect the current levels will be on par with superchargers.

I don't see VW adopting an 800V pack, but maybe these VW chargers will support lower charging voltages too.

There is a good documentary series on Netflix that became available a couple of weeks ago called Dirty Money. Each episode looks at an example of recent corporate excess and corruption. The first episode is on Dieselgate. VW Group is in heavy duty CYA mode right now. They are committing to EVs more than any other mainstream manufacturer to try to make the world forget about what they did. To some extent it's good something got somebody to look seriously at building EVs, but their motives are more for PR than actually doing something serious. A lot of things will happen in the next few years. They, along with most of the rest of the industry, may get truly serious about EVs when Model 3 sales start cutting into the family sedan market. Maybe not?

There are a lot of top executives out there who built their entire career on ICE and there is a lot of resistance to the new fangled tech.

 

[RobStark]

To some extent it's good something got somebody to look seriously at building EVs, but their motives are more for PR than actually doing something serious.

In 1997 Toyota put a 1.3 kWh NiMH battery pack in a Tercel and called it a Prius to sell at 4 dealerships in Tokyo in preparation to meet demands by tree hugging hippies in CA. Not for any noble reasons.

20 years later Toyota has sold over 6 million Prius of various flavors and the other automakers combined have added over 4 million themselves.

Would I prefer 70M Prius efficient HEVs and 10M Model 3 efficient BEVs instead of pure ICEv be sold in 2018? Sure, but don't let the perfect be the enemy of the better.

I don't care why VW Group sells 2.5M BEVs in 2025. As long as they do it.

 

[alloverx]

If the rumored electric GM/Buick SUV is revealed this year and presumably available next year that could be one to watch (perhaps in China).

 

[Model 3]

I don't care why VW Group sells 2.5M BEVs in 2025. As long as they do it.

I partly agree, but I have to partly disagree...

To make clear what I am thinking of - let's look at GM and Bolt. A year ago forums and media was speculating on how many Bolts GM would produce this first year. Elon nailed it as he knew GM's "why".

So if the "why" is just PR to get over the diesel-gate, then they will drag their feet as slow as they can, and probably not reach that 2.5M goal they are claiming. But if they really have "seen the light" and understand why it is urgent to replace ICE's with BEV's they may move as fast as they can, and may even go beyond their stated goal.

So "WHY" does matter.

....

And btw: I see some mentions about the VAG "GF" here? Is that not just a battery*pack* factory and not a battery*cell* factory? Or have they came with some announcement that I have missed?