Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[sundaymorning]

Nissan casts doubt on solid-state batteries

In this game it all comes down to cost. A new technology will take tremendous amount of capital and time to catch up. So maybe in 2025 auto companies will invest in solid state battery plants when it makes sense. But by then who knows what kind of breakthrough Tesla will have, or how low they will be able to take the current technology down to? At any rate, Tesla is in a very good position and it appears a lot do companies are having cold feet in building out battery plants.

 

[sundaymorning]

Incentive Alert: Lease Chevy Volt For Price Of Chevy Cruze
Current Deals & Offers: Incentives and Specials | Chevrolet

$222 Per Month; 36 Months
For Current Owners and Lessees of 1999 or newer select non-GM vehicles:
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(after all offers)**.

Tax, title, license, and dealer fees extra.
Mileage charge of $0.25/mile over 45,000 miles.

Payments are for a 2018 CHEVROLET Volt LT with an MSRP of $33,220. 36 monthly payments total $8,208. 35 monthly payments total $7,980. Option to purchase at lease end for an amount to be determined at lease signing. Lessor must approve lease. Take delivery by 04-02-2018. Lessee pays for maintenance, repair, excess wear and disposition fee of $395 or less at end of lease. Payments may be higher in some states. Not available with other offers.

**Current Owners and Lessees of 1999 or newer Daewoo, Daihatsu, Honda, Hyundai, Isuzu, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Scion, Subaru, Suzuki and Toyota vehicles: Payments are based on an MSRP of $33,220. 35 monthly payments total $7,980. Must show proof of ownership/lease. Option to purchase at lease end for an amount to be determined at lease signing. Lessor must approve lease. Take delivery by 04-02-2018. Lessee pays for maintenance, repair, excess wear and disposition fee of $395 or less at end of lease. Payments may be higher in some states. Not available with other offers.

They make it up in ZEV credits. This is why Elon says Tesla is at a disadvantage bc other autos have 100% value, while Tesla sells their ZEVs for much less.

 

[RobStark]

They make it up in ZEV credits. This is why Elon says Tesla is at a disadvantage bc other autos have 100% value, while Tesla sells their ZEVs for much less.

In their internal accounting GM monetizes the credit at 100% face value while Tesla sells on the open market for 50% off.

Alternatively, GM could just buy credits from Tesla and cut their losses in half.

Thing is legacy automakers don't and shouldn't be dependent on Tesla.

BEV requirements ramp up from 4.5% this year to 22.5% in 2025.

FCA and Honda have just been buying Tesla credits for years. Now they are making bigger volume Clarity PHEV and Pacifica PHEV which gets partial ZEV credits.

It will be interesting to watch what happens to the ZEV credits if these new EV companies take off in CA like SF Motors, Lucid Motors, Faraday Future,Byton etc. Even Bollinger Motors might have a few thousand ZEV credits to sell.

 

[ggies07]

Well this is nice to see...we need others to step up like this.

Volkswagen prepares to produce ‘up to 500,000 EV battery packs per year’ at Brunswick factory

 

[BornToFly]

Well this is nice to see...we need others to step up like this.

Volkswagen prepares to produce ‘up to 500,000 EV battery packs per year’ at Brunswick factory

How many years out is the 500,000/year. 5? Tesla should be over 1,000,000 EVs/year by 2021, and maybe 2,000,000/year by the time VW gets to only 500k.

 

[ggies07]

How many years out is the 500,000/year. 5? Tesla should be over 1,000,000 EVs/year by 2021, and maybe 2,000,000/year by the time VW gets to only 500k.

No, 2. Did you not read the article? And yes, Tesla will be doing just fine, I have no worries. What I worry about is the pace of the transition and this is great to see.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

BEV requirements ramp up from 4.5% this year to 22.5% in 2025

__ZEV program__ credit requirements ramp up from 4.5% this year to 22.5% in 2025.
It increases by 2.5% (absolute) each year.
But, importantly, of each 2.5% increase 2.0% of the increase is in full ZEV credits while 0.5% can be TZEV (i.e. PHEV). For 2018 it's min 2.0% ZEV. 2025 it's min 16.0% ZEV.
Combine that with BEVs earning up to 4 credits and a PHEV (TZEV) or BEVx (capped ZEV) only earning up to 1.3 credits you can see why manufacturers are all going to focus on long-range BEVs over PHEVs.

 

[Saghost]

__ZEV program__ credit requirements ramp up from 4.5% this year to 22.5% in 2025.
It increases by 2.5% (absolute) each year.
But, importantly, of each 2.5% increase 2.0% of the increase is in full ZEV credits while 0.5% can be TZEV (i.e. PHEV). For 2018 it's min 2.0% ZEV. 2025 it's min 16.0% ZEV.
Combine that with BEVs earning up to 4 credits and a PHEV (TZEV) or BEVx (capped ZEV) only earning up to 1.3 credits you can see why manufacturers are all going to focus on long-range BEVs over PHEVs.

Which was exactly the program's intent, I believe.

How many EVs have to be sold in CA in 2025 to avoid penalties if they sell the same total number of cars they did this year and all the EVs are 4 credit long range BEVs?

 

[Model 3]

No, 2. Did you not read the article?

I did read the article...

These modular E-drive systems for the MEB platform are supporting the series of EVs currently known as the I.D. electric vehicles that VW is planning to bring to market starting in 2020.

No mention of when they expected it to reach the maximum of 500k battery-packs/year.

 

[ggies07]

I did read the article...

No mention of when they expected it to reach the maximum of 500k battery-packs/year.

Ok, well I took it to mean 500,000 in 2020 and beyond....I guess we will see...

 

[Model 3]

Ok, well I took it to mean 500,000 in 2020 and beyond....I guess we will see...

Yes, we will have to see... But I think they need some ramping up, and they will not yet have started production of all the different I.D. models by 2020. So if I read the article correct, they will start slow in 2020 and ramp up to 500k in maybe 2024/25, and hold that until 2030 when the current battery cell contract is ending. What happens next is an open question.

So the guess on 5 years may - or may not - be spot on. But the article could be incorrect, and it really should be "starting in 2020 with 500k battery packs, and ramp up from there...."

 

[wdolson]

I notice most competitors are vague about when they plan to reach the lofty goals they announce. Tesla laid out the ramp up plan for the GF in some detail, so we know about how many cars they can build by year. I have read elsewhere VW planned to make 500,000 EVs a year by 2025, but there were hints the ramp was going to be fairly slow. That was just after the dieselgate settlement.

The above article is similar. It talks about 500K battery packs and mentions 2020, but it's probably written from the original VW press release which doesn't say they will be making 500K EVs in 2020, it just implies it indirectly.

VW will be making some EVs in 2020, possibly as many as 50K or more. Most of the strict requirements for European cities kick in around 2025 which happens to be when most of the European car makers talk about making x EVs a year.

I expect Tesla will be getting more competition next decade, but they will keep pace and do OK.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Which was exactly the program's intent, I believe.

Right, but the point is that the moves being made by other manufacturers to make cars that compete in Tesla's space, does not mean that they are competing with Tesla.

How many EVs have to be sold in CA in 2025 to avoid penalties if they sell the same total number of cars they did this year and all the EVs are 4 credit long range BEVs?

Well, 2.047M vehicles sold in California in 2017. Call it 2M.
Divide requirements by 4. Multiply 2M by result. Take difference.
2018: 4.5% / 4 = 1.125%. 2M x 1.125% = 22,500.
2025: 22.5% / 4 = 5.625%. 2M x 5.625% = 112,500.
Total required extra long-range BEVs sold in California in 2025 will need to be 90,000.
Total new vehicle registrations in the USA in 2017 was 17.25M. CARB states are about 40% of that, so 6.9M.
If total sales remained the same, the total extra required long-range BEVs in CARB states would be 310,500.

Top 3 manufacturers are 2M or more sales in the USA. Assuming proportionate sales in CARB states, that would be 0.8M sales. 4.5% of that is 36,000. So a very large manufacturer would need to sell another 36,000 long-range BEVs in CARB states to meet requirement. $36M per $1k of loss per vehicle. (Penalty is $5000 per credit, so $20k per 4-credit ZEV not sold. Might be other penalties as well.)

 

[ZsoZso]

Right, but the point is that the moves being made by other manufacturers to make cars that compete in Tesla's space, does not mean that they are competing with Tesla.


Well, 2.047M vehicles sold in California in 2017. Call it 2M.
Divide requirements by 4. Multiply 2M by result. Take difference.
2018: 4.5% / 4 = 1.125%. 2M x 1.125% = 22,500.
2025: 22.5% / 4 = 5.625%. 2M x 5.625% = 112,500.
Total required extra long-range BEVs sold in California in 2025 will need to be 90,000.
Total new vehicle registrations in the USA in 2017 was 17.25M. CARB states are about 40% of that, so 6.9M.
If total sales remained the same, the total extra required long-range BEVs in CARB states would be 310,500.

Top 3 manufacturers are 2M or more sales in the USA. Assuming proportionate sales in CARB states, that would be 0.8M sales. 4.5% of that is 36,000. So a very large manufacturer would need to sell another 36,000 long-range BEVs in CARB states to meet requirement. $36M per $1k of loss per vehicle. (Penalty is $5000 per credit, so $20k per 4-credit ZEV not sold. Might be other penalties as well.)

Thank you for this break-down!
It is very sobering to see how little the government requirements really are. Compare that to the ~100k BEV Tesla already sold in 2017, that is 8 years earlier. This year Tesla will probably sell well over 200k long range BEV. By 2025 Tesla will probably be selling millions. All the big talk of many new models from the incumbent ICE manufacturers are planned to be used just to satisfy these weak requirements (less than 36k/year by 2025).
However, IMHO, reality will play out differently. Market change is forced by Tesla with the Model 3 and Model Y. By 2025 the other manufacturers will either have to sell a lot more competitive EVs than the mandatory numbers or they have to go out of business.

The same thing will happen to the car market as the energy market. Coal powerplants are shutting not because of government regulations on emissions (those have been scrapped by the Trump admin), but because if economics of cheaper gas and renewable energy sources. Similarly, the car market will switch to EVs because of economic pressure pioneered by Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

Coal powerplants are shutting not because of government regulations on emissions (those have been scrapped by the Trump admin),

Like CAFE, coal emission standards have not been scrapped.

Obama era increases to those standards have been scrapped.

We are back to Clinton-Bush era standards.

 

[BornToFly]

Nice article on Electrek about Tesla battery degradation. Less than 10% at 160,000 miles. Nissan's batteries, on the other hand, are terrible, with the more recent 30kWh battery failing even sooner than the old 24 kWh! Anyone want to spend over 80k on an Audi and find out how long their batteries last? No me....
Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data

 

[RobStark]

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

Porsche Cars North America plans to have at least 500 fast chargers available at dealership and highway locations across the U.S. by the end of 2019.

 

[JRP3]

Dealership chargers don't seem to be that useful, how many do they have in the US?

Should have read the article first 189

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

No, 2. Did you not read the article? And yes, Tesla will be doing just fine, I have no worries. What I worry about is the pace of the transition and this is great to see.

VW global sales were 10.3M. 500,000 is about 5%. Given the ZEV mandates in CARB states and China*, and given the tightening of fleet fuel economy standards in the EU and, perhaps, the USA, 500,000 is not anything about which to get excited.

* And Quebec, and who knows where else will join in

 

[wdolson]

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

Porsche Cars North America plans to have at least 500 fast chargers available at dealership and highway locations across the U.S. by the end of 2019.

Is that 500 locations or 500 individual chargers? The vagueness of most of the industry about their EV expansion and support plans is annoying.