Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[kenliles]

report of Apple-Car hiring freeze-
for what it's worth -
Apple at crossroads, team in hiring freeze, source says

 

[RobStark]

Consider though that if the new technology is cheap enough and significantly more energy dense that means it can easily be fit into existing platforms without the need for a BEV specific design. That means existing large OEMS with high volume production lines could quickly start producing high numbers of EV's. Look at the Bolt for example, they basically took a FWD design, changed the floor pan to accommodate the battery, and are almost ready to roll it out the door. Come up with a cell technology that only doubles their energy density at a low cost and you can pretty much get a 300-400 mile + vehicle in any shape and size.

Tesla would still have the advantage of low center of gravity and the handling implications it brings.

And Tesla could then offer real world Autobahn ranges and diesel like ranges in the dead of Norwegian winters.

Or drive it like you stole it and still get 400 mile ranges.

Legacy OEMs get BEVs that for all practical purposes are as good as mainstream ICEv.

Tesla produces BEVs that blow away the best of the very best ICEv.

Still makes the tech more valuable to Tesla IMO and makes Tesla likely to make a higher bid.

 

[VolkerP]

In general I think for Tesla it would be better if battery technology goes not too fast. It would mean that the competitors would still be into ICE and Hybrids further extending Tesla's lead. For their mission it would be better if it went fast, but I don't think it is for the value of the company.

Hell no, the best for Tesla would be to drive battery tech all by themselves as fast as they can go! With their production volume in 2020, even small improvements scale up to big savings. No other competitor can parallel that.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

report of Apple-Car hiring freeze-
for what it's worth -
Apple at crossroads, team in hiring freeze, source says

I would not be surprised at all if this is true. It's often said that Apple's piles of cash would enable it to build and sell a car, but money can only do so much. If there is disagreement over the vision for a prospective Apple Car, the project will flounder until that is resolved.

 

[lango]

Hell no, the best for Tesla would be to drive battery tech all by themselves as fast as they can go! With their production volume in 2020, even small improvements scale up to big savings. No other competitor can parallel that.

Yeah, it is of course different if they make the progress themselves. I was referring to leaps in battery tech that would make ICE obsolete.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla would still have the advantage of low center of gravity and the handling implications it brings.

The Bolt pack is under the floor pan, similar to Tesla. Not sure why you would think Tesla would have an advantage. Especially if Ford bought the technology and put it in F150's, and everything else.

And Tesla could then offer real world Autobahn ranges and diesel like ranges in the dead of Norwegian winters.

Or drive it like you stole it and still get 400 mile ranges.

Sure, I expect Tesla would make a better EV, but that doesn't matter if the large OEMS want to bid high for the technology.

Legacy OEMs get BEVs that for all practical purposes are as good as mainstream ICEv.

If the pack energy density is high enough then making any car an EV means it will be better than the ICE version, or should be.

Still makes the tech more valuable to Tesla IMO and makes Tesla likely to make a higher bid.

If they have to bid too high then the "low cost" of the technology is lost. A large OEM could absorb that cost more easily if they felt it was worth it in the long run. Locking Tesla out of the technology might be worth it to them, it could essentially kill Tesla. Not saying any of this is likely, just a possibility to consider.

 

[Auzie]

report of Apple-Car hiring freeze-
for what it's worth -
Apple at crossroads, team in hiring freeze, source says

I am not surprised with this development. Apple seems to be learning that money is not the secret sauce that can make stuff (icar) happen.

 

[blakegallagher]

The Bolt pack is under the floor pan, similar to Tesla. Not sure why you would think Tesla would have an advantage. Especially if Ford bought the technology and put it in F150's, and everything else.



Sure, I expect Tesla would make a better EV, but that doesn't matter if the large OEMS want to bid high for the technology.



If the pack energy density is high enough then making any car an EV means it will be better than the ICE version, or should be.



If they have to bid too high then the "low cost" of the technology is lost. A large OEM could absorb that cost more easily if they felt it was worth it in the long run. Locking Tesla out of the technology might be worth it to them, it could essentially kill Tesla. Not saying any of this is likely, just a possibility to consider.

Stuffing the batteries under the floor plan does not give the same advantage as the skate board design when it comes to weight distribution, handling etc.

I feel like you know this and are just at odds worth Rob for whatever reason, but I don't keep up with this thread like I use too

 

[Jeff N]

Stuffing the batteries under the floor plan does not give the same advantage as the skate board design when it comes to weight distribution, handling etc.

I feel like you know this and are just at odds worth Rob for whatever reason, but I don't keep up with this thread like I use too

I see little difference between the Model S and Bolt approaches. They are both "skateboard" designs which take up the entire floor area of the car and form an important structural role in the body design. The only real difference is that Tesla always has a motor in the rear and maybe that makes it easier to balance the weight but I think I heard that the Bolt has a good weight balance. While it doesn't have the motor in back, it does have an extra layer of battery cells stacked in the rear whereas the Model S pack has a small extra layer stacked in the front of their pack, I think.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I see little difference between the Model S and Bolt approaches. They are both "skateboard" designs which take up the entire floor area of the car and form an important structural role in the body design. The only real difference is that Tesla always has a motor in the rear and maybe that makes it easier to balance the weight but I think I heard that the Bolt has a good weight balance. While it doesn't have the motor in back, it does have an extra layer of battery cells stacked in the rear whereas the Model S pack has a small extra layer stacked in the front of their pack, I think.

The Bolt is most definitely not a skateboard design. It is closer to the Leaf in design (including the extra layer of cells under the rear seats).

The only two EVs that fit the skateboard design 100% are the Model S and i3 which have flat battery packs that do not intrude into the passenger section and has the drivetrain components fit under the wheel footprint (such that there is no separate "engine compartment" at all).

The two conversion EVs that fit the closest are the Smart ed and iMIEV since both happened to have a "sandwich" design. However, the drivetrain is still put into an engine compartment (the existing one it had for the ICE versions), although it is very small.

 

[wdolson]

Yeah, it is of course different if they make the progress themselves. I was referring to leaps in battery tech that would make ICE obsolete.

There is an intense focus in many countries with many different labs working on coming up with a battery technology that would make ICE obsolete, but battery technology doesn't move forward anything like Moore's Law. There are many small incremental changes that could be made, but big changes are who knows how far off, it could be tomorrow, or ten years. Once a breakthrough is made, it's going to be 10 years or more before the new chemistry is in production.

Developing new batteries is not a predictable science.

 

[Jeff N]

The Bolt is most definitely not a skateboard design.

The only two EVs that fit the skateboard design 100% are the Model S and i3 which have flat battery packs that do not intrude into the passenger section and has the drivetrain components fit under the wheel footprint (such that there is no separate "engine compartment" at all).

This is what the Bolt battery pack looks like:

It looks like a flat skateboard except for the extra stacked modules at the back which nest under the rear seats and do not take up any cabin room.

This is what the Model S battery pack looks like:

The Model S battery pack also looks like a flat skateboard except for the extra stacked modules at the front which nest into the "engine compartment" as you call it and does not take up any cabin room.

Actually, this is probably a pre-production prototype. The actual production pack still has stacked modules at the front but they are somewhat less noticeable:

1. Both the Model S and Bolt packs are predominantly flat and relatively thin from side to side and along most of the length between the wheels.

2. Neither the Bolt nor Model S pack are completely flat.

3. Both have an area of stacked cell modules at one end.

4. Neither stacked module area protrudes into otherwise usable cabin space.

 

[lango]

There is an intense focus in many countries with many different labs working on coming up with a battery technology that would make ICE obsolete, but battery technology doesn't move forward anything like Moore's Law. There are many small incremental changes that could be made, but big changes are who knows how far off, it could be tomorrow, or ten years. Once a breakthrough is made, it's going to be 10 years or more before the new chemistry is in production.

Developing new batteries is not a predictable science.

To some degree it actually does move like Moore's law, steady progress with no big jumps. Just with a lower pace. Or it has for a while.
I assume there *could* be a big leap, and that is a risk for Tesla if they are left out. I am no chemical engineer that knows about battery so I don't know how likely it is.

 

[Gerardf]

This is what the Bolt battery pack looks like:

View attachment 109399

It looks like a flat skateboard except for the extra stacked modules at the back which nest under the rear seats and do not take up any cabin room.

Where did you find that picture ? ( looks a bit different from the official published artwork).

Looking at that picture I doubt the Bolt pack can be easily replaced or even upgraded.

Comparing this picture with the Tesla pack, I feel that it looks the Tesla pack will be safer in case of an accident. Also the Tesla pack has using small cells, instead of a pouch format, thus having more separate individual cells to contain any problems. Will be interesting to see how well the Bolt performs in the various safety certifications

 

[Model 3]

This is what the Bolt battery pack looks like:

From this picture is looks like the battery is mounted ON the frame, but the Tesla Gen-II skateboard has it mounted within the frame, making it an integral part of the frame and lowers the centre of gravity even more, add to the stiffness of the frame and thereby add to the safety of the car. Maybe even let them reduce the frame it self to save on cost/weight?

 

[wdolson]

To some degree it actually does move like Moore's law, steady progress with no big jumps. Just with a lower pace. Or it has for a while.
I assume there *could* be a big leap, and that is a risk for Tesla if they are left out. I am no chemical engineer that knows about battery so I don't know how likely it is.

The price drop for batteries, while not as dramatic as Moore's Law for semiconductors has declined relatively steadily, but technological advance for batteries tends to go in fits and starts.

 

[scaesare]

There are undoubtedly some differences between the Bolt and Tesla packs, but obviously similarities as well.

The flat pack under the floor of the passenger compartment should help a great deal with low center of gravity, and minimal interior space intrusion. I expect that general layout will become common place for many future EV designs.

 

[JRP3]

Stuffing the batteries under the floor plan does not give the same advantage as the skate board design when it comes to weight distribution, handling etc.

In truth it comes pretty darn close. The main factor is pack weight, and "stuffing the batteries under the floor" puts the pack in the exact same position as the skate board design.

I feel like you know this and are just at odds worth Rob for whatever reason, but I don't keep up with this thread like I use too

The point I'm trying to make is that as pack energy density increases and costs go down it becomes easier and easier to make a proper EV without necessarily going to a full skateboard design. Sure the skateboard is going to be marginally better, but not significantly so. Make no mistake, the general public won't care if the Tesla has slightly better skid pad numbers if another OEM offers a less expensive EV with longer range.

 

[Jeff N]

From this picture is looks like the battery is mounted ON the frame, but the Tesla Gen-II skateboard has it mounted within the frame, making it an integral part of the frame and lowers the centre of gravity even more, add to the stiffness of the frame and thereby add to the safety of the car. Maybe even let them reduce the frame it self to save on cost/weight?

It functions pretty much the way the Tesla pack functions. It is designed to be an integral component of the frame and GM has said the pack is responsible for 28% of the body's torsional rigidity. The overall suspension platform is a redesign specifically for the Bolt although it no doubt reuses some wheel suspension components from similar GM cars. Obviously, the battery is removable by dropping it out by unbolting it and disconnecting wire and coolant connectors pretty much like the Model S. I doubt that it has been designed specifically for automated battery swapping but then that doesn't seem to be relevant for this generation of cars.

 

[Chickenlittle]

The volt has been out for 5 years now. I have searched for the replacement cost of it and have only found 36,000 dollars? The cost of a new car.