Mo City
Active Member
I believe your view is quite likely. Whatever competitors can mass production in 2021-2022 will barely computers with current Tesla offerings. By that time, the line will have moved significantly.g
I'm guessing this:
2018 - The incumbents find out the Model 3 is profitable, awesome and ramp up is real. Management panics, serious commitments are done, development starts but structural problems prevent catching up.
2022 - The incumbents bring cars to the market with price & spec of 2016 Teslas
A story from Germany: In 1990, everybody was wondering how long it would take until East Germany will reach parity with West Germany. Some guessed 10 years, some guessed 20 years. In 2018, inequality between East and West Germany is still very pronounced. I'm really not sure the incumbents will ever make cars that reach parity with Tesla.
Good chance they never gain parity and Tesla has several more years ahead of them with demand exceeding supply despite opening additional GFs in China, Europe and the U.S.
I predict the "Uh Oh!" moment in the collective American consciousness about EVs will happen by the end of next year as Model 3s become very common. The reaction to mine in just 3 days over the weekend is mind blowing and I haven't even taken it to work yet.