Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[willow_hiller]

Thanks for that. That does indeed show very little progress. So all they have left going for the ID.3 is that it's a hatchback (which is a pretty big selling point), and that it's made in Germany. Hopefully they'll be able to bring production costs (and thus sale price) down before the Brandenburg model Y kicks their sales in the teeth.

The Leaf is a hatchback as well, which was the primary reason I was making that comparison.

When Tesla makes a Model 3 SR+ at Giga Berlin, it will be much more competitive with the offerings from VW and Nissan. Assuming they can make it for the same cost as Fremont, $37,990 plus 19% German VAT is $45,208, which is only €40,135 at current exchange rates.

 

[RobStark]

I would take any rumored starting price with a large grain of salt. I remember how last year the Porsche Taycan was rumored to start around $75,000 and how so many of the reservation holders were disappointed when it came in closer to $100,000.

$103k is a lot lower than the $150k price the Taycan started at too.

ID.3 will eventually come with a lot lower base price than 1st edition even if not the rumoured 20k Euro.

 

[MXLRplus]

$103k is a lot lower than the $150k price the Taycan started at too.

ID.3 will eventually come with a lot lower base price than 1st edition even if not the rumoured 20k Euro.

It starts at $114,340. You must buy the EVSE, glass roof, and LR battery as of now. It's supposed to change but don't hold your breath.

Any Taycan worth buying is going cost you about $140k+. A Porsche is a place to store your optional equipment.

@RobStark has probably not researched Taycans. "The standard Aluminum Roof, Porsche Mobile Charger Plus and Performance Battery (79.2kWh) are not available on vehicles that are currently in production and are estimated to be available on vehicles that begin production in late 2020. All initial production Taycan orders will be equipped with the optional Fixed Panoramic Roof in Glass, Porsche Mobile Charger Connect and Performance Battery Plus (93.4kWh)." emphasis mine

 

[ammulder]

News on the Mach E:

• It will have an autopilot "competitor," to allow hands-free driving on pre-mapped highways
• Which is targeted for Q3 2021
• And you have to opt to buy the hardware up front
• Because apparently Ford hasn't figured out that the cost of putting the hardware in every car is made back in the amount of road/driving data you capture
• And the software will be installed "via OTA or at a dealership." Such confidence in their OTA capabilities.

Ford, motto: "If all goes well, we'll reach in late 2021 where Tesla was in 2014! Give Us A High Five!" Sigh.

 

[colettimj]

News on the Mach E:

• It will have an autopilot "competitor," to allow hands-free driving on pre-mapped highways
• Which is targeted for Q3 2021
• And you have to opt to buy the hardware up front
• Because apparently Ford hasn't figured out that the cost of putting the hardware in every car is made back in the amount of road/driving data you capture
• And the software will be installed "via OTA or at a dealership." Such confidence in their OTA capabilities.

Ford, motto: "If all goes well, we'll reach in late 2021 where Tesla was in 2014! Give Us A High Five!" Sigh.

Ford press release
"Ford engineers and test drivers have accumulated more than 650,000 miles testing tech like Adaptive Cruise Control and Blind Spot Information System with Cross-Traffic Alert to ensure these radar- and camera-based features work in as many real-world scenarios as possible"

I guess they think that sounds like an impressive number of miles? I also wonder if it will have the same limitation as Cadillac's Super Cruise. For example, a large section of I95 north of Philly is not covered, presumably because it's undergoing a multi-year reconstruction.

 

[replicant]

2021 Volkswagen ID.4 X And ID.4 Crozz Electric SUVs Revealed In China | Carscoops

 

[willow_hiller]

ID.3 Configurator is live: Der ID.3 1ST | Modelle | Volkswagen Deutschland

Confirming the prices we learned about last week are inclusive of VAT.

 

[MXLRplus]

Ford press release
"Ford engineers and test drivers have accumulated more than 650,000 miles testing tech like Adaptive Cruise Control and Blind Spot Information System with Cross-Traffic Alert to ensure these radar- and camera-based features work in as many real-world scenarios as possible"

I guess they think that sounds like an impressive number of miles? I also wonder if it will have the same limitation as Cadillac's Super Cruise. For example, a large section of I95 north of Philly is not covered, presumably because it's undergoing a multi-year reconstruction.

1) Are you SURE the I95 has no coverage for a significant distance? If so, the Cadillac warns you ahead of time, ACC still works but you must steer, just like FSD 2020.20.12 in construction zones or near k-rail.

2) Most cars have Cross-Traffic Alert except Teslas. One more time, I put a pedestrian at risk due to poor rear visibility and complete lack of cross traffic monitoring.

3) I doubt 2020.20.12 had 65,000 miles of testing prior to release. Or most updates. Some come out less than 5 days apart. Nearly everything is Beta. AP/FSD will run into curbs, k-rail, pylons, and other cars, even in 100% controlled access long standing roads.

How many miles have you logged in your Super Cruise car?

 

[ammulder]

BMW & Mercedes end self-driving collaboration to save money... Not that I can fault them for wanting to reduce the burn these days... but would it not be better to raise a bit of money instead of cutting investment in future technologies that will be needed to keep them competitive?

 

[adiggs]

BMW & Mercedes end self-driving collaboration to save money... Not that I can fault them for wanting to reduce the burn these days... but would it not be better to raise a bit of money instead of cutting investment in future technologies that will be needed to keep them competitive?

I think we'll see more of this. Mobileye is the other company (beyond Tesla) that I think has a realistic and coherent plan for how they get FSD / autonomous driving into the world. And Mobileye can be worked with as a supplier.

I figure that for any company that's having a tough time getting traction, using that 3rd party as a supplier becomes increasingly attractive as capital and research budgets get tighter and tighter.

(Notice - these are my opinions and not necessarily those of my employer. I'm on the hook for this - not them)

 

[colettimj]

1) Are you SURE the I95 has no coverage for a significant distance? If so, the Cadillac warns you ahead of time, ACC still works but you must steer, just like FSD 2020.20.12 in construction zones or near k-rail.

2) Most cars have Cross-Traffic Alert except Teslas. One more time, I put a pedestrian at risk due to poor rear visibility and complete lack of cross traffic monitoring.

3) I doubt 2020.20.12 had 65,000 miles of testing prior to release. Or most updates. Some come out less than 5 days apart. Nearly everything is Beta. AP/FSD will run into curbs, k-rail, pylons, and other cars, even in 100% controlled access long standing roads.

How many miles have you logged in your Super Cruise car?

I don't have a Cadillac, I have a Model 3 LR RWD. The info on the missing sections of I95 is from a zoom-able map on the Super Cruise page that I linked.

 

[MXLRplus]

I don't have a Cadillac, I have a Model 3 LR RWD. The info on the missing sections of I95 is from a zoom-able map on the Super Cruise page that I linked.
View attachment 553963

If it is construction, you can't go hands-free in a Tesla either, unless it's a rental that you bought the extra insurance on.
Mine doesn't like barrels or close to lane k-rail. It seems like it will clip them if you don't stop it.

If Cadillac deemed a section of freeway too risky, why would Tesla allow AP to be used on it?

 

[ammulder]

I think we'll see more of this. Mobileye is the other company (beyond Tesla) that I think has a realistic and coherent plan for how they get FSD / autonomous driving into the world. And Mobileye can be worked with as a supplier.

I figure that for any company that's having a tough time getting traction, using that 3rd party as a supplier becomes increasingly attractive as capital and research budgets get tighter and tighter.

True... except that Mobileye then captures all the sensor and driving data, not the OEM. Meaning as the OEM, you're basically giving up on ever owning the self-driving piece. I mean, if Tesla and Mobileye are the only ones with driving and world data from millions of vehicles, how do you start up 5 or 10 years later to compete with that?

All right, it's OK to just commit to making self-driving "a supplier thing" forever -- it's what the OEMs have done with so many other pieces of the vehicle -- but it's also a bet against robotaxis. If robotaxis ever become a thing, personal car branding is gone, and nobody gives a rat's tush who assembled the sheet metal -- seems likely the robotaxi fleets will they'll only pay for the intelligence and then go with the lowest-cost assembly plant that can meet the needed specs and then slap a giant Uber logo on the side.

Not to mention, handing self-driving over to a third party only aggravates the EV software problem. I mean, imagine an OTA update that tweaks, say, the range or acceleration (just to pick a couple real-world examples). The OEM has to work all that out with the battery and motor suppliers and whatever battery-management and cooling systems and all that. But even if they pull that all together, then they have to pitch it over the wall to the self-driving vendor to update their model of the vehicle and tune the driving parameters for the self-driving system and then retest that and pass it back for the OEM to finalize, all before they can release the update. I don't even know who ends up owning the mapping system; altered range brings other possible destinations into the picture, but there must be some sort of collaboration where the real-time riving dynamics affect the predicted range and then the self-driving system has to decide whether it can actually get you there. But what if Android Auto or CarPlay own the map?

I start to think that even if legacy OEMs ever offer OTA, it'll be like an annual thing, not a monthly thing. (And if there's one thing I can say with confidence, it's that Honda will want to absurdly overcharge you for it!)

 

[RobStark]

Charged EVs | Retooling a shuttered factory to build electric trucks: Q&A with Lordstown Motors CEO Steve Burns

Really good interview.

Lordstown wants to build production candidates this December and customer cars early next year(20k units for 2021).

They want to sell electric trucks to fleets. Targeting utilities and municipalities first(mentions California will mandate municipalities buy electric for pickups.)

They are trying to do everything on a shoestring budget. 90% chance they fail but wish them the best.

 

[wdolson]

True... except that Mobileye then captures all the sensor and driving data, not the OEM. Meaning as the OEM, you're basically giving up on ever owning the self-driving piece. I mean, if Tesla and Mobileye are the only ones with driving and world data from millions of vehicles, how do you start up 5 or 10 years later to compete with that?

All right, it's OK to just commit to making self-driving "a supplier thing" forever -- it's what the OEMs have done with so many other pieces of the vehicle -- but it's also a bet against robotaxis. If robotaxis ever become a thing, personal car branding is gone, and nobody gives a rat's tush who assembled the sheet metal -- seems likely the robotaxi fleets will they'll only pay for the intelligence and then go with the lowest-cost assembly plant that can meet the needed specs and then slap a giant Uber logo on the side.

Not to mention, handing self-driving over to a third party only aggravates the EV software problem. I mean, imagine an OTA update that tweaks, say, the range or acceleration (just to pick a couple real-world examples). The OEM has to work all that out with the battery and motor suppliers and whatever battery-management and cooling systems and all that. But even if they pull that all together, then they have to pitch it over the wall to the self-driving vendor to update their model of the vehicle and tune the driving parameters for the self-driving system and then retest that and pass it back for the OEM to finalize, all before they can release the update. I don't even know who ends up owning the mapping system; altered range brings other possible destinations into the picture, but there must be some sort of collaboration where the real-time riving dynamics affect the predicted range and then the self-driving system has to decide whether it can actually get you there. But what if Android Auto or CarPlay own the map?

I start to think that even if legacy OEMs ever offer OTA, it'll be like an annual thing, not a monthly thing. (And if there's one thing I can say with confidence, it's that Honda will want to absurdly overcharge you for it!)

What you're talking about is the difference between the Mac and Windows/Linux/Unix approach. MacOS can be a somewhat simpler OS because it runs on a limited set of hardware well known to the programmers. It will never run on anything outside that universe to a number of things can be tailored to the hardware used.

The other OSs run on a wide array of hardware and a lot of decisions need to be made to leave things generic enough that the installed drivers can handle whatever the task is. The OS is heavily dependent on the device drivers being able to handle all the functions and handle them right and the drivers are provided by the hardware makers. It's a much more complex ecosystem.

I'm still not sure that full self driving on all public roads with no driver standing by will ever become a thing. If it does, it will lead to massive unemployment with millions of people in the US alone who will be out of work with no prospect of ever having a job again. If full self driving without a human being able to take over is never achievable or regulators never allow it (they may not allow it because they will come to realize the unemployment problem it will create), robotaxis will not be financially feasible.

Robotaxis are also only something for urban areas. As population density drops, their cost per mile will go up dramatically. In rural areas we will probably never see significant penetration of robotaxis.

Exactly what the future of transportation will look like is up in the air right now. The Millennial generation were far slower to get driver's licenses than previous generations and the robotaxi industry is thinking car ownership will be a thing of the past, but GenZ appears to be as into driving themselves as their grandparents
Gen Z attitudes toward car ownership, driving unexpected – survey - Santander Consumer USA

This is a few years old, but is looking at the generation coming of age now. They are skeptical of fully self driving cars, but like things like part time self driving features that assist the driver.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Charged EVs | Retooling a shuttered factory to build electric trucks: Q&A with Lordstown Motors CEO Steve Burns

Really good interview.

Lordstown wants to build production candidates this December and customer cars early next year(20k units for 2021).

They want to sell electric trucks to fleets. Targeting utilities and municipalities first(mentions California will mandate municipalities buy electric for pickups.)

They are trying to do everything on a shoestring budget. 90% chance they fail but wish them the best.

I think it's probably closer to a 99% chance, but I agree it would be great if they can get EV pick-ups on the road.

 

[RobStark]

I think it's probably closer to a 99% chance, but I agree it would be great if they can get EV pick-ups on the road.

They don't have nothing.

They have a factory full of equipment. Some needs modification some needs to be replaced to go from Cruzes to full size pickups.

They about a dozen ex-Tesla engineers, among Detroit engineers.They claim all the engineering is done.

They have signed contracts for cells with Samsung SDI.

They have the State of Ohio pushing for their success.

They will have a captive market in California municipalities next year without a competitor.

Rivian isn't competing in this space with their midsize premium truck.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

They don't have nothing.

They have a factory full of equipment. Some needs modification some needs to be replaced to go from Cruzes to full size pickups.

They about a dozen ex-Tesla engineers, among Detroit engineers.They claim all the engineering is done.

They have signed contracts for cells with Samsung SDI.

They have the State of Ohio pushing for their success.

They will have a captive market in California municipalities next year without a competitor.

Rivian isn't competing in this space with their midsize premium truck.

I agree that they have a lot going for them. However:

Elio had a factory full of equipment, they had committed well known industry partners, Caddo Parish fully behind them, no competitors, and 60k+ reservation holders. Yet, they couldn't make it happen.

Lucid had a lot going for them, but they didn't pass the final hurdle without an influx of a billion dollars...and there seems very little indication, IMHO, that there is enough demand to justify the investment.

Heck, Dyson spent more money developing a single prototype than Lordstown claims they need to enter full production.

Faraday Future...

Lordstown seems like a hail mary to me, but I certainly hope they succeed...however, the odds are not in their favor.

 

[RobStark]

I agree that they have a lot going for them. However:

Elio had a factory full of equipment, they had committed well known industry partners, Caddo Parish fully behind them, no competitors, and 60k+ reservation holders. Yet, they couldn't make it happen.

Lucid had a lot going for them, but they didn't pass the final hurdle without an influx of a billion dollars...and there seems very little indication, IMHO, that there is enough demand to justify the investment.

Heck, Dyson spent more money developing a single prototype than Lordstown claims they need to enter full production.

Faraday Future...

Lordstown seems like a hail mary to me, but I certainly hope they succeed...however, the odds are not in their favor.

Elio was eyeing a wierdmobile less than 1% of the population will consider. Lordstown is hitting the bullseye of the market. A a full size pickup. Elio has never manufactured anything. Steve Burns has manufactured vans for UPS and FEDEx. Lordstown has enough credibility that 12 Tesla engineers quit Tesla to work at Lordstown. Elio was always 18-24 months away. Steve is saying he will starting manufacturing trucks in 6 months.

Lucid. Really? They are full steam ahead building their factory in Arizona and bank account full of cash. Lordstown isn't competing in the $100k-$200k luxury sedan market, they don't need that level of refinement and fit/finish. They need a work truck that works and pencils out at cost per mile.

Dyson had the brilliant idea to manufacture a $200k car in Singapore. To those in the know Singapore is First World country with top rate engineering. To the vast majority of people Singapore is a shithole in Southeast Asia. High cost with the least prestige as possible.

Faraday Future. Yueting Jia hired a slew of automotive industry veterans and told him he needed $18B-$25B to fulfill his vision of launching from scratch a full line of BEVs day 1 of sales to the public with a factory in China another in USA and distribution/service nationwide in both. He laughed and budgeted $3B. Steve isn't pissing in the face of veteran advice and pissing away money.

Lordstown is focusing on a single configuration. A Crew Cab short bed pickup. The most popular configuration for fleets and retail.But focused on fleets so Lordstown doesn't need a vast nationwide sales/service network.

 

[wdolson]

The parent company of Lordstown is the Workhorse Group, which has been around since 1998. Though it looks like they basically went dark in 2012 to be revived by AMP Electric Vehicles in 2015.
Workhorse Group - Wikipedia

If Lordstown is focusing on the commercial market, all they need is a reliable product that is cheaper cost of ownership than the competition and you have a viable company. Fleet buyers are only concerned about whether it will do the job, is reliable, and cheap to own. All the prestige and marketing and all the other stuff necessary to sell to the public is irrelevant.

Lordstown is debuting in the niche I thought Tesla should have been shooting for with its first pickup.

I've been to Singapore, it is a first world country that in some ways is more high tech than the US. For example the average broadband speed has been significantly faster than just about anywhere in the US for more than 10 years. It does have some quirks that come from the Chinese and Indians that migrated there. Markets can often look like disorganized jumble sales and merchants are always looking to haggle.