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Tesla BEV Competition Developments

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really exciting development. both for EVs in general and to see what Tesla vs. legacy auto can do on a volume platform.

I'll applaud GM for sticking their necks out. If its a reasonable product vs. the Cybertruck then they will show their relevance for the future. If not, then they become another datapoint in favor of the theory of creative destruction.
 
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I think GM decided to revive the Hummer nameplate with an EV because it is a halo brand. Vehicles equipped for off roading are very popular right now and the Hummer is the ultimate offroad truck.

Plus an EV Hummer is a high margin vehicle that will help GM recoup the costs of developing EV platforms quicker than churning out large numbers of low margin vehicles. The first edition of the Hummer EV is going to have sky high profits.

Other pluses is even though they are committing to building more battery factory space, battery supply is going to be tight for the near term and a high margin EV is the way to go in that environment.

Another thing that helps GM win over skeptical dealers is a vehicle with a lot of buzz in the media that draws in people who want to see it. An electric Silverado is not going draw crowds like a Hummer will. By the time they are making more batteries, some of those people who came to see the Hummer might give GM a second look when they buy a more affordable EV for themselves.
 
Hummer is not going to be an efficient platform

Which is precisely why it's loved by a segment of male population, range is not an issue above 200 miles, doesn't matter if Cybertruck is more efficient either, I'm still trading my Smart ED in for it (I wonder how many Smart owners will be doing that) because I have reasons to change my vehicle use as I get older (ie tow trailer and adventure trips vs commute to work).
 
Not sure what you mean, if you want to drive to a remote location, go off road, (which is usually very inefficient driving), and then return, range is very important. Also if you want to tow something.

In a world with fast charging stations and 200kW charging as widely distributed as gas stations are today, 200 miles range is quite a bit, especially if you have electricity at your destination.

The gas hummer had a 350 mile EPA range, which owners rarely achieved, that is 50% "better", but there is no way to refuel a hummer at a destination if there is no gas station around.

So "off road" is one thing, "off grid" is another.

Re: towing, sure, even the top Cybertruck (which I have reserved) will only tow for 4 hours before needing a big recharge.
 
In a world with fast charging stations and 200kW charging as widely distributed as gas stations are today, 200 miles range is quite a bit, especially if you have electricity at your destination.

The gas hummer had a 350 mile EPA range, which owners rarely achieved, that is 50% "better", but there is no way to refuel a hummer at a destination if there is no gas station around.

So "off road" is one thing, "off grid" is another.

Re: towing, sure, even the top Cybertruck (which I have reserved) will only tow for 4 hours before needing a big recharge.
The obvious difference being (for the wilderness) - you can fill up some gas cans and take them with you into the wilderness and refuel your ICEV for the return trip. That's not available with a BEV.

It is obviously a small corner case but the brilliance of Musk (or at least one of them) is design / build / sell what people want, and not what somebody tells them is good enough.
 
A MachE owner lends his car to Zac and Jessie for an extensive review. The owner was a former Tesla owner and is very enthusiastic about the MachE. Zac and Jessie aren't quite as impressed. They see some major flaws in how the Ford "autopilot" operates and not surprisingly the DC charging.

 
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This issue is going to be range and cost, the Hummer is not going to be an efficient platform, no attempt at aerodynamics at all, so it's going to take a lot of battery pack which will increase the cost.

A large percentage of the public don't care about the efficiency of their vehicles unless they have to. The oil crisis of the 1970s caught a large number of Americans flat footed because few thought anything of energy efficiency before that. Gas had been so cheap for so long and there had been no shortages since the 1940s (due to war rationing) that it was an out of sight, out of mind issue in the US. In Europe and Japan where fuel was more heavily taxed fuel efficiency was a concern and Japanese auto makers saw it as an opening and took it.

Fuel efficiency awareness has not declined back to 1970 levels since, but a lot of Americans have become lazy about it. A friend of my partner just dropped $115K on a Dodge truck that gets 12 MPG and has 700 HP. It's a limited edition and he thinks it will hold its value. Who knows what collectors will think in 10 years, but if there are trucks out there with 1000 HP with 200-300 miles range, it might not be worth much.

The large family sedan has died off in the US to be replaced by SUVs and trucks that get even worse fuel mileage. At the same time a different segment of the market were buying Priuses (Prii?) and then 1st and 2nd gen EVs because they were concerned about efficiency. So we've seen a bifurcation of the market.

A friend who lives in the inner SE in Portland (very trendy neighborhood with a lot of eco-hippies) has noted how vehicles change when she leaves the city. In her neighborhood there are some electric cars (home charging is difficult there), lots of hybrids, and small econo-ICE. She gets to the next county which is more suburbia and half the vehicles are full sized trucks or SUVs built on truck chassis. She notices because she can see around quite well in her husband's Prius near home, but her visibility goes to zero and all she can see are tailgates saying "Ford" when she gets out here.

This area is split too. Half the vehicles are trucks, but a large percentage of the rest are electric cars. A lot of people living in this county commute to Portland and electricity rates here are $0.08/KWH, so a lot of the commuters went electric. I went to the market yesterday (it was a Whole Foods-like place), and I counted 5 Teslas in the sparsely populated parking lot on my way in.

The electric Hummer is not being sold to the half of the market who care about efficiency. It's the gateway drug for the testosterone crowd who want macho vehicles and don't care about fueling it. Tesla already put a crack in this market with the high performance of the Model S. GM is trying to get the jump on Tesla furthering that crack with the Cybertruck by bringing out a high performance EV truck that looks more like a traditional truck. The Cybertruck is too weird looking for many buyers.


The obvious difference being (for the wilderness) - you can fill up some gas cans and take them with you into the wilderness and refuel your ICEV for the return trip. That's not available with a BEV.

It is obviously a small corner case but the brilliance of Musk (or at least one of them) is design / build / sell what people want, and not what somebody tells them is good enough.

That is a use scenario that means ICE will never completely go away.

My father was a professional photographer for around 60 years (he retired age 85). He passed last year at 100 and I've been tasked with dealing with the stuff my parents left behind. As I worked on valuing his equipment I found a small but thriving world of film photography. You can still buy new rolls of film for $15 a roll, and processing costs about the same. There is even a strong EBay trade in old expired film.

This drove me to research why. It's the same sort of phenomenon that has revived vinyl as a niche market in the music business. The analog nature of film has properties that just can't be reproduced with digital cameras no matter how sophisticated the image processing in the camera. For 90% of the world the camera on their cell phone is more than enough. Another 9.9% get what they want with some form of dedicated digital camera, but for the small sliver of the market who want something digital can't provide, they want to shoot film the old fashioned way.

Similarly, there are some edge cases where gasoline/diesel fueled vehicles are going to still be needed because there are places where you just can't put an electric charging station. There will be very, very few people who really need this sort of thing, and it may be uneconomical for anyone to make ICE for these purposes so the ICE crowd will use last gen ICE and keep them going.

Nikon just discontinued their last film camera about a year ago. They had one professional model still in production all this time to meet the needs of the film niche. Kodak also still makes film, but just a fraction of what they used to make. Many of Tesla's Gigafactory 2 employees in New York making solar panels are former Kodak employees. Kodak hired blind people to make film because they could work in total darkness with no problems. Similarly solar panels are made in the dark too. Solar City put their big factory there to use the employee base left out of work by Kodak's downsizing.
 
A large percentage of the public don't care about the efficiency of their vehicles unless they have to.
They will care about the range of their EV and the cost. Both are related to efficiency and battery pack size. They don't care about the efficiency of their ICE's because it doesn't effect the purchase price and because fueling is so fast and ubiquitous. In the example to which I was initially referring if someone buys a 200 mile range Hummer and takes it out in winter weather and gets maybe 120 miles they won't be happy, especially if they don't end up near a charger.
 
They will care about the range of their EV and the cost. Both are related to efficiency and battery pack size. They don't care about the efficiency of their ICE's because it doesn't effect the purchase price and because fueling is so fast and ubiquitous. In the example to which I was initially referring if someone buys a 200 mile range Hummer and takes it out in winter weather and gets maybe 120 miles they won't be happy, especially if they don't end up near a charger.

The base Hummer will have an EPA range of 250 miles with 150kW charging speed.

If you want 350 miles of range with 300kW charging speed you need the top spec Hummer pickup. SUV gets 300 miles of range.

There will always be disappointed people. There are folks that switch from Tesla to another brand. But they should be few in number.
 
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Doesn't change my point. It's an inefficient platform which will suffer even more from range sapping use profiles and require larger battery packs because of that fact. I wonder how many buyers will clearly understand that before they buy and won't end up disappointed if not downright angry. Many people still don't fully grasp that with more efficient EV's.
 
GM is trying to get the jump on Tesla furthering that crack with the Cybertruck by bringing out a high performance EV truck that looks more like a traditional truck. The Cybertruck is too weird looking for many buyers.

I don't know about the Hummer being more traditional looking, exactly. I see a lot of similarities with the Jeep Gladiator. There was so much hype with regard to the Gladiator as well, but it hasn't really lived up to that (at least as far as sales go).

I do think the Hummer will sell, but I don't think it will sell anywhere near the number of units as the less traditional looking Cybertruck. If I was interested in a more traditional looking electric truck or SUV I'd personally be looking at Rivian over the Hummer. Time will tell, of course.
 
Toyota showing how serious they are about electrification:
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I do think the Hummer will sell, but I don't think it will sell anywhere near the number of units as the less traditional looking Cybertruck. If I was interested in a more traditional looking electric truck or SUV I'd personally be looking at Rivian over the Hummer. Time will tell, of course.

Cybertruck is meant to be a big volume pickup truck. Elon hopes it will become the new normal.

Hummer was always Niche. Best year was ~35k unit sales.

Cybertruck starts at $40k. Rivian at $67.5k. and Hummer at $80k.

I think $80k Hummers will be as common as $35k Model 3s.

At most Hummer sales will equal peak Model X sales. Maybe 50k units. But very profitable.

Rivian has aspirations of being a mainstream big volume OEM. Amazon isn't investing big money in hopes Rivian becomes the electric Land Rover/Range Rover. I see Rivian aspiring to reduce prices as volume increases.