Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[alloverx]

The Hummer name is well known publicly by non car folks.
Within 6 months the crabwalk will be also very well known.
They will sell-out and I expect will slightly reduce prices as time goes on.

 

[wdolson]

Cybertruck is meant to be a big volume pickup truck. Elon hopes it will become the new normal.

Hummer was always Niche. Best year was ~35k unit sales.

Cybertruck starts at $40k. Rivian at $67.5k. and Hummer at $80k.

I think $80k Hummers will be as common as $35k Model 3s.

At most Hummer sales will equal peak Model X sales. Maybe 50k units. But very profitable.

Rivian has aspirations of being a mainstream big volume OEM. Amazon isn't investing big money in hopes Rivian becomes the electric Land Rover/Range Rover. I see Rivian aspiring to reduce prices as volume increases.

Doug DeMuro (the Youtube car review guy) has opined that the market the Cybertruck is likely to make the deepest penetration into is the Jeep market. He thinks the mainstream pickup market is going to be too conventional to go for the Cybertruck. They're more likely to hold out for the electric Silverado or F-150. Even if the Cybertruck is a better vehicle.

 

[JRP3]

Disagree. ICE Hummer among least efficient ICEv ever built.

It says HUMMER in big bold letters up front. Not Prius.

As I've said and you well know the penalty for poor efficiency is much lower in an ICE than an EV. Your range won't get cut in half in extreme conditions, fueling options are everywhere, and fueling times are under 10 minutes. How many Hummer buyers do you think will fully research and understand the differences? I'm guessing very few.

 

[RobStark]

As I've said and you well know the penalty for poor efficiency is much lower in an ICE than an EV. Your range won't get cut in half in extreme conditions, fueling options are everywhere, and fueling times are under 10 minutes. How many Hummer buyers do you think will fully research and understand the differences? I'm guessing very few.

Dumbasses with a spare $100k(or qualifications for such loans) for a vehicle are few. Some celebrities, trust fund kids, and such. Most will have a good general idea watching a 10 minute Youtube review or article in enthusiast magazine.

Range will be cut 40% on very rare occasion. 150-210 on worst days will be fine for the vast majority of folks.

 

[RobStark]

Doug DeMuro (the Youtube car review guy) has opined that the market the Cybertruck is likely to make the deepest penetration into is the Jeep market. He thinks the mainstream pickup market is going to be too conventional to go for the Cybertruck. They're more likely to hold out for the electric Silverado or F-150. Even if the Cybertruck is a better vehicle.

This is the conventional view. And I mostly agree with it.

Many customers will think Cybertruck dashboard is a deal breaker IMO.

Musk disagrees.

The conventional view on the investor forum is the Cybertruck is the One Truck to Rule Them All. And no one else will be able to sell trucks in much more than niche volume once fully ramped up because Cybertruck and Superchager Network are so damn awesome.

 

[winfield100]

As I've said and you well know the penalty for poor efficiency is much lower in an ICE than an EV. Your range won't get cut in half in extreme conditions, fueling options are everywhere, and fueling times are under 10 minutes. How many Hummer buyers do you think will fully research and understand the differences? I'm guessing very few.

as an aside, there was a Green Festival at the Convention Center in DC, probably 10 years ago that had a Hydrogen powered Hummer on static display
(no answer as to where the H2 came from)
If I recall correctly they refused the offer of the local EV club for static displays of EV's but were ok with the Hummer

There was also a small 12-15ft tall wind turbine on display, Savonius (vertical eggbeater style) that had PV cells on the blades so they could get sunlight while they spun "making energy".

For some reason the question was not appreciated of "what percent of the time during rotation do the cells get enough sunlight to actually work"
(not much at best, but never did the math)
(cosine of the incident angle)

the Hummer and that wind turbine are pretty equivalent, poorly thought out disasters

 

[wdolson]

This is the conventional view. And I mostly agree with it.

Many customers will think Cybertruck dashboard is a deal breaker IMO.

Musk disagrees.

The conventional view on the investor forum is the Cybertruck is the One Truck to Rule Them All. And no one else will be able to sell trucks in much more than niche volume once fully ramped up because Cybertruck and Superchager Network are so damn awesome.

The supercharger network puts Tesla 4-5 years ahead of the competition on charging network access, and an indeterminate, but huge lead in convenience. Nobody else has figured out how to fast charge as conveniently as Tesla. That might win over some buyers, but a lot of people think the Cybertruck is ugly.

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1381651256100286464

In this Hummer EV ad, there's a Tesla wall connector in the background

 

[mongo]

Recent Hummer stealth Tesla ad...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1381651256100286464

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

"The first heavy-duty electric truck from Geely Commercial Vehicles is set to be revealed in mid-2021."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380040379010023424

A Tesla Semi "look-alike"

! Wow - carbon-copy! If you only look at the picture, you would think that Tesla did a slight semi-redesign.
Well, the saying goes: 'Good artists are merely inspired, great artists steal outright'

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Toyota showing how serious they are about electrification:
View attachment 653073

4 hours!? Worst straw-man ever! Goes to show that the people promoting 'Fool Cells' are, off course, fools.

 

[SmartElectric]

The conventional view on the investor forum is the Cybertruck is the One Truck to Rule Them All. And no one else will be able to sell trucks in much more than niche volume once fully ramped up because Cybertruck and Supercharger Network are so damn awesome.

I want a Cybertruck to replace my Smart

• thick armor exoskeleton (not some wimpy aluminum that scratches driving through brush in the woods)
• 150 kWh battery capacity and Tesla higher power supercharging across Canada and with compatibility (CCS connector) for non-Tesla
• ludicrous mode acceleration to "shut up" doubters and prove EV's are superior to test riders
• FSD ("eventually") when I'm too old to drive well (no LOL here)
• massive towing and cargo capacity

Hummer is awesome and pretty close to what I want, but it's at a much higher price point vs similar "utility" to me.

Cybertruck is not one truck to rule them all, it's simply the best specs vs price, and I expect a production rate high enough so my 150K reservation gets me a truck within first 14 months of production.

 

[30seconds]

This is the conventional view. And I mostly agree with it.

Many customers will think Cybertruck dashboard is a deal breaker IMO.

Musk disagrees.

The conventional view on the investor forum is the Cybertruck is the One Truck to Rule Them All. And no one else will be able to sell trucks in much more than niche volume once fully ramped up because Cybertruck and Superchager Network are so damn awesome.

personally I think it’s going to be the Model A that is the going to be the one that rules them all.

but the cybertruck is the one that’s going to wreck whatever the profitability of Ford, GM and Dodge have left

 

[RobStark]

but the cybertruck is the one that’s going to wreck whatever the profitability of Ford, GM and Dodge have left

I hoped that would be true before I saw the design.

It is just too weird IMO for the bulk of F Series, Silverado and Ram owners to switch.

I think a lot of current BEV owners, especially Tesla owners, that currently own an ICE pickup because they actually need the utility will switch.

A lot of people that currently own small vehicles because they couldn't stomach the inefficacy of an ICE pickup but liked the space and utility will buy a Cybertruck.

Once the economics of BEV pickups is established there will be electric Silverados,F Series, Lordstown pickups for fleet managers to buy.

And as previously noted many of the people that like obnoxious in your face aggressive design will also switch. Some of those will also buy Hummer but that starts at twice the price of Cybertuck.

BTW I said the conventional wisdom here is the Cybertruck will be one truck to rule them all(pickups) Obviously Cybertruck isn't going to rule the global vehicle market.

 

[ZsoZso]

Even if cybertruck does not rule the pickup landscape and leaves enough sales for electric F-150, Rivian etc., as long as Tesla easily sells all they can make it can be considered a smashing success. I have strong confidence that will be the case. Heck, I have a reservation and I never thought I would ever buy a pickup-truck before, but the price and utility combination convinced me that it is better replacement for my aging Model S than a (more expensive) new Model S would be.

 

[RobStark]

Even if cybertruck does not rule the pickup landscape and leaves enough sales for electric F-150, Rivian etc., as long as Tesla easily sells all they can make it can be considered a smashing success. I have strong confidence that will be the case. Heck, I have a reservation and I never thought I would ever buy a pickup-truck before, but the price and utility combination convinced me that it is better replacement for my aging Model S than a (more expensive) new Model S would be.

If making lots of money is a smashing success then yes.

IF accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to electric mobility then not if the same people buying ICE trucks continue buying ICE trucks until they are legislated out of existence in 2030-40 and then they continue refurbishing remanufacturing ICE trucks until gasoline stations are legislated out of existence.

Lots of people saying they have Cybertruck reservations say the same thing. I am not a truck person and have never considered buying a truck. To really accelerate the transition you have to get ICE truck owners to switch. Not get Model 3/S and Lexus owners to switch.

And I don't see Rivian cannibalizing Detroit iron either. I see Rivian cannibalizing mostly Subaru/Audi Allroad sales.

If Detroit doesn't see their lunch being eaten they will cater and market their electric trucks to the same Urban Cowboys the startup electric trucks are catered to. They won't offer serious hauling/towing ratings for their electric trucks. They won't offer styling/design rural folks want and expect. Urban drivers switching their 35 MPG sedans for 75 MPGe electric trucks doesn't move the needle as much as I hoped Tesla's electric pickup would a few years back. I was hoping mostly people that get 10 mpg in an ICE pickup would switch to a 100 MPGe Tesla pickup.

 

[ammulder]

If making lots of money is a smashing success then yes.

IF accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to electric mobility then not if the same people buying ICE trucks continue buying ICE trucks until they are legislated out of existence in 2030-40 and then they continue refurbishing remanufacturing ICE trucks until gasoline stations are legislated out of existence.

Lots of people saying they have Cybertruck reservations say the same thing. I am not a truck person and have never considered buying a truck. To really accelerate the transition you have to get ICE truck owners to switch. Not get Model 3/S and Lexus owners to switch.

And I don't see Rivian cannibalizing Detroit iron either. I see Rivian cannibalizing mostly Subaru/Audi Allroad sales.

If Detroit doesn't see their lunch being eaten they will cater and market their electric trucks to the same Urban Cowboys the startup electric trucks are catered to. They won't offer serious hauling/towing ratings for their electric trucks. They won't offer styling/design rural folks want and expect. Urban drivers switching their 35 MPG sedans for 75 MPGe electric trucks doesn't move the needle as much as I hoped Tesla's electric pickup would a few years back. I was hoping mostly people that get 10 mpg in an ICE pickup would switch to a 100 MPGe Tesla pickup.

All the same, if Tesla never built a Cybertruck, Ford would never build an electric F150. It's OK with me if the Cybertruck does not appeal to all the ICE pickup owners. I think it may appeal to more of them than you give it credit for, but even if I'm wrong that would be OK. The CyberTruck should show the OEMs and the truck owners what an electric pickup can do. At that point, if people are saying "this wonky looking thing can accelerate better, tow more, power my tools, and starts every day with a full tank" it's not that far to "so why can't you make a normal-looking one that does that too?" At some point the loud, slow, expensive to fuel and maintain, polluting ICE truck will look less attractive, even if the CyberTruck is not the go-to option to replace it.

And that's one piece of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.

 

[wdolson]

If making lots of money is a smashing success then yes.

IF accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to electric mobility then not if the same people buying ICE trucks continue buying ICE trucks until they are legislated out of existence in 2030-40 and then they continue refurbishing remanufacturing ICE trucks until gasoline stations are legislated out of existence.

Lots of people saying they have Cybertruck reservations say the same thing. I am not a truck person and have never considered buying a truck. To really accelerate the transition you have to get ICE truck owners to switch. Not get Model 3/S and Lexus owners to switch.

And I don't see Rivian cannibalizing Detroit iron either. I see Rivian cannibalizing mostly Subaru/Audi Allroad sales.

If Detroit doesn't see their lunch being eaten they will cater and market their electric trucks to the same Urban Cowboys the startup electric trucks are catered to. They won't offer serious hauling/towing ratings for their electric trucks. They won't offer styling/design rural folks want and expect. Urban drivers switching their 35 MPG sedans for 75 MPGe electric trucks doesn't move the needle as much as I hoped Tesla's electric pickup would a few years back. I was hoping mostly people that get 10 mpg in an ICE pickup would switch to a 100 MPGe Tesla pickup.

My neighbor is one of the few people I've encountered who want to go from an ICE pickup to a Cybertruck, but most ICE truck drivers today are usually more conventional in their vehicle tastes. The Cybertruck is a weird looking vehicle and they don't like that. The Venn diagram of people who don't believe we should be moving away from fossil fuels and pickup truck owners has a lot of overlap too.

All the same, if Tesla never built a Cybertruck, Ford would never build an electric F150. It's OK with me if the Cybertruck does not appeal to all the ICE pickup owners. I think it may appeal to more of them than you give it credit for, but even if I'm wrong that would be OK. The CyberTruck should show the OEMs and the truck owners what an electric pickup can do. At that point, if people are saying "this wonky looking thing can accelerate better, tow more, power my tools, and starts every day with a full tank" it's not that far to "so why can't you make a normal-looking one that does that too?" At some point the loud, slow, expensive to fuel and maintain, polluting ICE truck will look less attractive, even if the CyberTruck is not the go-to option to replace it.

And that's one piece of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.

I believe the electric F-150 was well along in development before the Cybertruck was unveiled, Fiat-Chrysler had its head in the sand, but both GM and Ford recognized the existential threat Tesla posed. Especially by the time Tesla turned the corner with the Model 3 and got the early production problems sorted out. The Big 3 only hang on because Americans are addicted to pickup trucks and they also know that once consumers get a chance to experience a good quality electric vehicle, quite a few never want to go back to ICE. They also see that the European brands are electrifying, in part because European governments are mandating it.

Ford and GM also know that half their pickup truck sales are fleet buyers who have one key criteria that drives the decision making process: cost of ownership. Even if consumers initially rejected an electric pickup, they would have strong sales among fleet buyers who don't require fast refueling (trucks that go more than 200-300 miles a day). Some fleet buyers have been approaching them asking for electric commercial chassis.

They also knew Tesla was working on a pickup and they needed to make sure they weren't behind Tesla like they were with cars. The unveiling of the Cybertruck may have given them a sigh of relief because it's not a direct competitor for the core pickup market from Ford and GM. They now have a chance to hold onto the pickup market with pickups that will appeal to commercial fleet buyers. If they hold that market, the consumer market will follow as people drive their electric pickups for work and buy one for their own use because they like it better.

The niche that is most threatened by the Cybertruck is Jeep. Jeep brands itself as the quirky and different type of truck, mostly favored for recreational use. The Cybertruck is going to challenge that niche pretty hard.

 

[Cobos]

I actually think the Cybertruck is going to sell well in Truck country. BUT not at first. As people say when they show off a Model 3 to strangers, people are blown away on how good and how cheap it is. For not very car interested people electric cars are fast and very expensive and can't be taken on roadtrips. The Model 3/Y sort of defeats that, but with only word of mouth information spread is slow.
The Cybertruck looks very gimmicky, like a wierd, ugly design. The fact that everything about the design has a real function and is intended to be that way is lost on everyone that saw the reveal videos on TV and hasn't done any research themselves. Assuming it actually works as well as I think it does as a truck any one that can realistically evaluate it's features and cost will easily considering even though it looks wonky. I think Cybertruck guy is a good example, though he is clearly more cutting edge than all his friends. I'm pretty sure he's gonna sell a lot of trucks after he has used it for a few months. And similar true truck guys that use their vehicles as tools will see the great utility of the Cybertruck.
Tesla can't make that many anyway before 2023 at the earliest, late 2022 or early 2023 is when the line is gone is my guess.

 

[navguy12]

My neighbor is one of the few people I've encountered who want to go from an ICE pickup to a Cybertruck, but most ICE truck drivers today are usually more conventional in their vehicle tastes. The Cybertruck is a weird looking vehicle and they don't like that. The Venn diagram of people who don't believe we should be moving away from fossil fuels and pickup truck owners has a lot of overlap too.

My anecdotal evidence (rural eastern Ontario): I have a friend that was going to spend $90k + on a new Dodge p/u but was waiting for the Cybertruck reveal. He hated the look of the Cybertruck when it was revealed...but is now waiting to see one in real life as he has gotten used to the look (still hasn't bought any replacement new truck yet). There is a farmer on my friends road who has a reservation for the Cybertruck. There are two other local farmers holding off on new purchases until they can try out the Cybertruck that the aforementioned farmer near my friend's house has ordered.