Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[wdolson]

Toyota exec: US’ 50% EV goal for 2030 a long shot due to lack of demand

The executive's stance is quite simple: the US' 50% electric vehicle goal for 2030 is a long shot due to a lack of consumer demand.

www.teslarati.com

...when the wheels fall off...yes.

It looks like Toyota left "for Toyota EVs" off their statement.

 

[Discoducky]

Toyota want to sell Hydrogen cars instead. Because the infrastructure is better?

Tech is similar enough to ICE without needing big battery tech investments and the oil/gas industry lobbied for it so the gov gave big money to support development. The Japanese have played off this for over a decade now.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tech is similar enough to ICE without needing big battery tech investments and the oil/gas industry lobbied for it so the gov gave big money to support development. The Japanese have played off this for over a decade now.

In what way is FCEV technology similar to ICE???

The refueling infrastructure has some similarities, but Toyota isn't involved in that today and doesn't want to be in the future. In fact, the lack of H2 refueling infrastructure means they've had to get more involved than they'd like. With BEV they can free ride off of EA and other existing networks.

Toyota's H2 bias mostly comes from the Japanese gov't. Plus they developed some of the best fuel cell tech out there, creating a sunk cost bias plus a natural desire to hope FCEV wins so they'll have a competitive advantage vs. their BEV disadvantage. Add to this the fact that they're a very conservative company that's extremely slow to change course. They built their reputation on reliability, not being a trendsetter.

 

[Discoducky]

In what way is FCEV technology similar to ICE???

I agree with all you've said, let's get that out of the way.

Anywho, it is similar 'enough' in that it is a liquid fuel which will require all the same players to do similar roles in the supply chain infrastructure. This is the meat and potatoes of the gas/oil industry. They live and breathe off incentives built into this supply chain and they don't want that disturbed more than it has to be.

 

[wdolson]

I agree with all you've said, let's get that out of the way.

Anywho, it is similar 'enough' in that it is a liquid fuel which will require all the same players to do similar roles in the supply chain infrastructure. This is the meat and potatoes of the gas/oil industry. They live and breathe off incentives built into this supply chain and they don't want that disturbed more than it has to be.

The most cost effective way to make hydrogen today is from natural gas. The oil companies hope to keep selling fossil fuels green washed with fuel cells.

 

[RobStark]

About a year ago RAM said it wanted feedback from current RAM pickup owners and potential RAM EV pickup truck owners about what they wanted in an EV pickup and that it would inform their product development.

According to auto Youtuber Ben Hardy , the feedback has been RAM owners want a conventional exterior, interior with at least 500 miles of range. They care about towing range and don't care about acceleration. They want the same options for premium interiors.

RAM plans to offer a base EV pickup at a $10k premium over Lightning and Silverado EV. But with better range and better interior. Only time will tell if RAM is smart for listening to their customers or stupid for becoming a prisoner of their current customers.

Conventional Ford F-150 Lighting and RAM EV.
Progressive Cybertruck and maybe new Ford EV pickup scheduled for 2026 to be sold alongside F-150 Lightning.

And Chevy Silverado EV that is somewhere in between.

 

[MC3OZ]

Not unexpected that the Chinese are going to increasingly offer cars that are good value for money.

What is novel in this case is a "Lifetime Warranty" for the original owner, a good move for a company without a track record, but they are going to need good engineering and QA.

 

[Discoducky]

Love the title of the article...

I wonder how many cars Tesla will sell in the US **by** 2025? So, total US sales in 2024? 2M+ maybe?

GM is betting on its electric Equinox, starting at $30,000, to kick-start 'massive adoption' of EVs

The all-electric Chevrolet Equinox EV is scheduled to go on sale in the U.S. next fall, starting at around $30,000.

www.cnbc.com

"Bell said Equinox EV production at GM’s Ramos Arizpe plant in Mexico will ramp up gradually in the coming years."

"GM CEO Mary Barra last year said the Detroit automaker can “absolutely” catch industry leader Tesla in U.S. sales of electric vehicles by 2025. Those plans include more than 1 million units of EV production capacity in China and North America, each, by that time."

"Barra on Thursday told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau that the automaker expects to ramp up production of the Equinox EV far more quickly than its current EVs. She said the vehicle should be close to full production by the first quarter of 2024."

 

[RobStark]

Mullen claims majority stake in Bollinger Motors and will revive B1 and B2 EV truck production

EV start-up Mullen Automotive has announced the purchase of a controlling interest in Bollinger Motors for $148.2 million in cash...

electrek.co

 

[RobStark]

I wonder if the $30k Equinox EV will be more common than the $35k Model 3?

If GM can make a 2%+ profit on the $30k Equinox EV I will be mighty impressed.

 

[Discoducky]

Why Rivian is up 11% today is that they will partner with MB on a delivery van set to debut sometime in 2025

"Mercedes’ will be based on its upcoming new EV van architecture, set to debut in 2025"

 

[DarkandStormy]

I wonder if the $30k Equinox EV will be more common than the $35k Model 3?

If GM can make a 2%+ profit on the $30k Equinox EV I will be mighty impressed.

"starts at around $30k" is fairly vague. Might end up starting at $33.9k or something, who knows.

If it qualifies for the full tax credit (details unclear), then it'd come in around $22.5k - assuming a $30k price.

In theory, you could buy two Equinoxes instead of one MY and have money left over.

 

[RobStark]

"starts at around $30k" is fairly vague. Might end up starting at $33.9k or something, who knows.

If it qualifies for the full tax credit (details unclear), then it'd come in around $22.5k - assuming a $30k price.

In theory, you could buy two Equinoxes instead of one MY and have money left over.

It is impossible for GM management to know the price of Nickel, Lithium and Cobalt in ~18 months when the base Equinox EV is scheduled to launch. So they don't want to commit to a specific number. If prices plummet maybe $30k. If prices skyrocket maybe $34,490.

We know the final assembly will be in North America, cells and packs will also be manufactured in North America. The only question is mineral sourcing. We don't know for a fact non-cell battery pack components will be manufactured in North America but almost certainly the Equinox EV will meet the requirements there too.

 

[RobStark]

BMW confirms it will adopt Tesla's 4680 cell format, pledging billions of dollars for six global battery factories

BMW Group has come out and publicly stated that its future success in a competitive EV market relies heavily on...

electrek.co

 

[RobStark]

Ford wants its dealers to match Tesla's lower selling costs

Ford has told dealers that one key topic for the meetings will be a discussion of new agreements that would govern how dealers sell Ford's expanding lineup of electric vehicles.

www.autonews.com

Ford wants dealers to cut $2k from the cost of delivering an EV, to match Tesla cost.

Obviously, they can't. The only way to approach that number is to eliminate advertising or reduce it 95%. And cut inventory 95%.

This requires Ford to build EVs so compelling they don't require much advertising. After the pandemic and chip shortage.

 

[heltok]

 

[willow_hiller]

I thought this was interesting. It's rare you see average people testing Super Cruise. Here it is with a new driver on the Bolt EUV:

 

[MP3Mike]

Video from Lucid on motor design:

One of the things that bothers me is I thought Tesla said that the Plaid motors were capable of 400kW output, but Lucid is saying that they are only 200kW. Anybody have reference to that? I found that total output for the Plaid was 760kW, which evenly split is 253kW/motor. So obviously Lucid is understating the Plaid motor capabilities. (And the motor may be capable of 400kW, but the battery can't supply that much so it is limited.)

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

That was a great Lucid video! A little slow at the start with all the "what is torque?" stuff, but once the engineer came on it was great to see something like this dissected and explained by someone with first-hand knowledge and expertise rather than the usual Munro-type personalities speculating, guessing, and reverse-engineering.

Rawlinson is clever to address the fact that YouTuber's will inevitably be cutting up his cars for views. Not only is he beating them to the punch, but he also gets to control the narrative along the way. Maybe that Tesla motor is really 400kW instead of 200kW? Maybe that Porsche motor performs better? Maybe the Lucid motor is inherently more expensive to produce? And maybe some YouTuber will make a video about those topics one day, but it'll be a lousy video compared to Peter's well-choreographed explanation of all the interesting stuff.

Of course Musk does the same thing with his talks (e.g. "Battery Day") but not at this nitty-gritty hands-on level that really cuts into Youtuber space.

 

[wdolson]

That was a great Lucid video! A little slow at the start with all the "what is torque?" stuff, but once the engineer came on it was great to see something like this dissected and explained by someone with first-hand knowledge and expertise rather than the usual Munro-type personalities speculating, guessing, and reverse-engineering.

Rawlinson is clever to address the fact that YouTuber's will inevitably be cutting up his cars for views. Not only is he beating them to the punch, but he also gets to control the narrative along the way. Maybe that Tesla motor is really 400kW instead of 200kW? Maybe that Porsche motor performs better? Maybe the Lucid motor is inherently more expensive to produce? And maybe some YouTuber will make a video about those topics one day, but it'll be a lousy video compared to Peter's well-choreographed explanation of all the interesting stuff.

Of course Musk does the same thing with his talks (e.g. "Battery Day") but not at this nitty-gritty hands-on level that really cuts into Youtuber space.

Having the company describe their own product has advantages and maybe Sandy Munro is not your cup of tea, but Munro is a highly experienced automotive engineer who knows what he's talking about.