tesla blue star

[richkae]

That question was asked on our tour, and all of the machinery is usable for multiple lines, including steel.

So now I am curious about the 20,000 car per year number for producing Model S cars. What is the constraining factor on that?

How much of what we saw could do dual duty punching out 20,000-35,000 Model S and X cars and 50,000-100,000 bluestar cars?
Seems likely that the stamping line could do dual duty, and that the constraint is the assembly line area and maybe welding robots.

 

[Doug_G]

How about fixing the spelling mistake in the title of this thread? :tongue:

 

[Lloyd]

Our guide was the training lead. I was told that 20 k cars were possible from an 8 hour shift 5 days per week! You do the math for a 24/7 factory operation.

So now I am curious about the 20,000 car per year number for producing Model S cars. What is the constraining factor on that?

How much of what we saw could do dual duty punching out 20,000-35,000 Model S and X cars and 50,000-100,000 bluestar cars?
Seems likely that the stamping line could do dual duty, and that the constraint is the assembly line area and maybe welding robots.

 

[VolkerP]

It is clear that bluestar must be an exceptional vehicle concept to succeed. We should expect Tesla to go outside of the box to achieve this. Let us do critical reconsideration of every feature bluestar will have.
* Number and arrangement of seats. will they have conventional arrangement (two rows with two seats)?
* vehicle shape: there is no engine compartment. A front trunk will do nicely. What benefits can be explored from eliminating the rear trunk? or the other way around?
* crumple zones: front and rear can be optimized for crash safety, still can be a lot shorter than compact car class. Expect to see drastic differences from conventional car outline.
* body material, weight, battery size & cost, aerodynamics were discussed already. what points to reconsider if we go think out of the box?
* simpler interior. I can imagine a smaller touch screen. what else?
* less bells & whistles. That's for sure, as it is no longer luxury class.

One point to add: dramatic price reductions on the EV specific parts due to mass production.
- estimates for empty Model S pack range up to $4000. Should drop to $1000
- electric power steering
- electrically actuated brakes
- electric HVAC unit

what more?

Let's come up with some really good ideas.

 

[doug]

How about fixing the spelling mistake in the title of this thread? :tongue:

done and done

 

[stevebalmmer]

the bluestar must have,
a good price, under 35000 Euro.
range over 400 kilometers.
4-5 Passengers in the car.

 

[WhiteKnight]

This number is high - where did you get it?

Wall Street analysts are saying the battery pack is between $300 and $375 per kWh (Tesla's cost). Tesla also is targeting 25% gross margins so that's more like $400-$500 per kWh (cost to the public). With a 42kWh pack in the 160 mile car, that means the cost to the public is $16,800 - $21,000.

Alternatively you could look and say 70 miles of range costs you $10,000 (in the leap from 160 to 230 and 230 to 300). That's $142.85 per mile. For 160 miles that is $22,856.

So yeah I guess $24,000 is a little too high. Should have said $23K

 

[WhiteKnight]

Wall Street analysts are saying the battery pack is between $300 and $375 per kWh (Tesla's cost).

By the way, this is a tremendous cost advantage relative to any other EVs from the traditional large automakers.

Nanosys says they can produce batteries in 5 years that will cost under $250 per kWh (and I've seen other similar claims). That's a 16%-33% improvement depending on where you believe Tesla's costs are today.

The agency has set a target for bringing the cost of lithium-ion batteries down to $250/kWh and increasing capacity to 300 miles per charge for the next generation of EVs.

Commercialization of High-Capacity Electric Vehicle Battery Materials by Nanosys Approved for by DOE in $11 Million Program

 

[TEG]

It is clear that bluestar must be an exceptional vehicle concept to succeed. We should expect Tesla to go outside of the box to achieve this. Let us do critical reconsideration of every feature bluestar will have.
* Number and arrangement of seats. will they have conventional arrangement (two rows with two seats)?
* vehicle shape: there is no engine compartment. A front trunk will do nicely. What benefits can be explored from eliminating the rear trunk? or the other way around?
* crumple zones: front and rear can be optimized for crash safety, still can be a lot shorter than compact car class. Expect to see drastic differences from conventional car outline.
* body material, weight, battery size & cost, aerodynamics were discussed already. what points to reconsider if we go think out of the box?
* simpler interior. I can imagine a smaller touch screen. what else?
* less bells & whistles. That's for sure, as it is no longer luxury class.

One point to add: dramatic price reductions on the EV specific parts due to mass production.
- estimates for empty Model S pack range up to $4000. Should drop to $1000
- electric power steering
- electrically actuated brakes
- electric HVAC unit

what more?

Let's come up with some really good ideas.

Short answer - 3/4 size Model S.

Same battery pack layout.
Same rear wheel drive drive-train layout.
2 rows of seats, not 3.
Seating for 4 or 5 max.
Think general size and shape of Prius and/or LEAF.
Slightly radical styling a la Franz. Perhaps a bit wider in front and more narrow in the rear as that tends to help aero.
Sloping hatchback similar to Model S.
Model S type batteries, but in a smaller pack... Target: 200 mile range.
Similar performance to Model S... 5.6s 0-60 standard, 4.5s sport option.
Slightly sportier seats standard (think grippy buckets, not slippery bench seats.)
Standard large touch screen LCD center controls, although maybe a bit smaller than the Model S version due to interior space and cost reasons.

...We have older threads pondering styling ideas including examples of small sedans and coupes we like to use as examples...

Thinking of BMW 3 series: does Tesla do a convertible hardtop version?
A coupe (2 door) variant along with the 4/5 door sedan?

Basically put everything that is good about Model S into a smaller package.
Emphasize sportiness a bit more and luxury a bit less.

 

[Mycroft]

If Tesla wants to break into the European market, then Bluestar definitely needs to be smaller; think Audi A3 or Lexus CT 200h. To do that, they're going to have to narrow the wheel track. So they either move part of the drive train or they make the electric motor smaller. I'm betting on the former rather than redesigning the motor. If they eliminate the rear-facing seats & footwell, then they can keep the hatchback and storage space, but possibly move some of the equipment behind the axle rather than keeping it all between the two wheels.

Because the car will be quite a bit lighter, they should be able to make the battery pack for the Bluestar more narrow and keep the same range.

 

[Doug_G]

Model S type batteries, but in a smaller pack... Target: 200 mile range.

I would hope they could use a smaller pack yet get the same range as the Model S. After all, it's a smaller, lighter, and more aerodynamic car (simply by total area, even if drag coefficient is the same).

 

[TEG]

To keeps costs down they may have to lower the range a bit. 300 mile range technology may still be too expensive for a mass market vehicle even in a few years.

 

[VolkerP]

transferred from 7-series competitor thread:

I think if Bluestar stays in the 3-series range of the market it should be ok re: competition.
I'd argue that the low end is already being saturated with existing (Leaf) and planned products (BMW 1 series active-e, VW Golf blue-e-motion, Ford Focus EV, mini-e, Toyota rav-4e, and maybe even BYD as a wildcard). Doesn't seem like there are as many shooting for the 3-series range.

It appears to me that Tesla is struggling to keep the pace with the resourceful, established car makers. Model S enters the market after GM Volt, Toyota PiP, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Renault Z.E., and Nissan Leaf. Even Fisker is a few months ahead. I and you know these are not all "pure" EVs, but Joe Average?
Tesla really has to get things together on bluestar to make it into production in 2015. By then, the mentioned competitors are on the road, plus BMW i3 & i8. Tesla needs some selling point other than "we're first!", like it was back 2008 with the roadster. They might have more EV experience, more electric miles driven, superior battery and drive train technology. These advantages will wear off really fast.

 

[TEG]

Tesla could have an advantage on brand, styling, purity of messages, etc.
Even if they offer a product with similar features to those other brands they still may be able to outsell them if they are priced similarly.
With S and Roadster, Tesla will be viewed as a 'premium brand'. When 'generation 3' model comes out, some people will want one just to say "I got a Tesla!"

 

[AnOutsider]

transferred from 7-series competitor thread:



It appears to me that Tesla is struggling to keep the pace with the resourceful, established car makers. Model S enters the market after GM Volt, Toyota PiP, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Renault Z.E., and Nissan Leaf. Even Fisker is a few months ahead. I and you know these are not all "pure" EVs, but Joe Average?
Tesla really has to get things together on bluestar to make it into production in 2015. By then, the mentioned competitors are on the road, plus BMW i3 & i8. Tesla needs some selling point other than "we're first!", like it was back 2008 with the roadster. They might have more EV experience, more electric miles driven, superior battery and drive train technology. These advantages will wear off really fast.

Big +1 here. I believe in the product, but their advantage from the perspective of joe blow is waning.

Tesla could have an advantage on brand, styling, purity of messages, etc.
Even if they offer a product with similar features to those other brands they still may be able to outsell them if they are priced similarly.
With S and Roadster, Tesla will be viewed as a 'premium brand'. When 'generation 3' model comes out, some people will want one just to say "I got a Tesla!"

Sadly, as I said in the Karma thread, I think people see the Karma as more premium based on looks. The S is a nice car, but even the refresh of the Betas are on a somewhat dated design (Franz started in Fall of 2008 didn't he?), and it's not very edgy to begin with. I say this not to speak bad of Tesla, but just to say I don't thinkt he Model S will REALLY stand out as much in crowds a few years down the line.

 

[vfx]

Short answer...

Think general size and shape of Prius and/or LEAF.
Slightly radical styling a la Franz. Perhaps a bit wider in front and more narrow in the rear as that tends to help aero.
...
Model S type batteries, but in a smaller pack... Target: 200 mile range.
Similar performance to Model S... 5.6s 0-60 standard, 4.5s sport option.
....
Thinking of BMW 3 series: does Tesla do a convertible hardtop version?....

On some of the paperwork we have seen a Tesla design shape (not the http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2327&d=1313178854 Model S one seen here) So you can figure that's it's profile. Can't find it online.
Three top execs have said BMW 3 series is the size so speculation outside of that is a waste.

A battery engineer said it was possible 300 miles could be attainable given the trend of battery improvements.

 

[VolkerP]

OK, I went to the BMW online configurator. I picked 320d eficient dynamics sedan because it has best mpg. seats 5. To match blue star, I add options for
1) AC
2) rain sensor & automatic lights (mandatory in California)
3) cruise control
4) heated seats
5) navigation package. Bluestar will have similar (albeit smaller) touchscreen like Model S, and this calls for nav in the basic model.

I end up with 36.290 Euros (possibly $36k in the US -- they rip us off over here in Europe). Tesla should be able to match this even without $7500 tax credit, but it will be incredibly hard to do it in 3 years.

 

[Kipernicus]

OK, I went to the BMW online configurator. I picked 320d eficient dynamics sedan because it has best mpg. seats 5. To match blue star, I add options for
1) AC
2) rain sensor & automatic lights (mandatory in California)
3) cruise control
4) heated seats
5) navigation package. Bluestar will have similar (albeit smaller) touchscreen like Model S, and this calls for nav in the basic model.

I end up with 36.290 Euros (possibly $36k in the US -- they rip us off over here in Europe). Tesla should be able to match this even without $7500 tax credit, but it will be incredibly hard to do it in 3 years.

I'm just stunned that #1 and #3 are options!

 

[AnOutsider]

I'm just stunned that #1 and #3 are options!

I could see #3 but #1!?!?

 

[Adm]

AC is standard on a 320d in Germany, but if you want a full automatic 2 zone AC... , you pay extra, but if you want to regulate the fan on both sides separately you need to order satnav as well... which will cost extra...

Come on VolkerP that's not a rip off! Just don't forget to bend over before leaving the showroom...