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tesla blue star
- Thread starter stevebalmmer
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- Model 3
Because after a certain point, 0..60 is really kind of a stupid number? In normal driving, nobody uses it except on highway on-ramps, and then you're usually dealing with curves and lane changes and whatnot.
If the Bluestar does 0..60 in 8 seconds, while having the center of gravity of model S and the AWD traction of model X, and a coefficient of drag better than model S (this I bet they can do by being daring about styling), with the all-electric flat torque curve, I think it will be plenty attractive enough as a "fun to drive" car without needing to advertise 0..60 times.
Tesla can make a car which handles better than the competition and accelerates well enough that nobody ever thinks "this is too slow" except on the track.
PeterW
Member
I would like to know what cars are made in 100,000 units or more a year. Use that as your basis of comparison. Elon has said the 3rd gen car would be around the $30k mark and they would make 200,000 units a year.
PeterW
Member
The best-selling vehicles of 2011 - Business - Forbes.com - msnbc.com
Without an ICE motor and drive-chain, why "$15k for Car body, interior, suspension, chassis."
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I agree with all of that, except the idea that the affordable Bluestar will have AWD. No need for it and no way it can be cost effective to have dual motors and inverters in a 30-40K vehicle. If they push the envelope with good aerodynamics that still look good they can get good range with a smaller pack, and the smaller pack will be lighter so that will help with stop and go range. 8 sec 0-60 and 150 mile range under $40K will probably even steal some sales from the LEAF, unless that improves a lot in the next few years, which it might.
I guess they could get into the $10k range if they cheaped out the interior. I imagine ICE cost is about $1.5-$2k. Transmission is probably another $1k. Various intake/exhaust/engine monitoring components add another $1k. So taking a Base Chevy Cruze (assume $2k profit, which is probably generous) at $17k Subtract $2k engine, $1k transmission, $1k misc, $1k profit, you end up with $11k for the body, chassis, suspension, interior. I bet GM with their volume, has economies of scale where they can build the same car (save for drive train) for $2k less than Tesla can, but I think assembly of an electric car is a little bit cheaper. But that puts Tesla's cost at $13k. Plus I don't think Cruze is really the quality marker that Tesla wants to hit, but honestly a Cruze is just a Cobalt in my mind, even though in real life I know this isn't quite the case.
Body, chassis, suspension, interior have a lot of material and labor costs involved with them. Interiors are way labor intensive, and quality control headache. Suspensions are pretty cheap to produce but require testing after the car is basically fully assembled, and rework is very expensive. Chassis and Body require a good amount of material cost. If Tesla is going Aluminium then you can count on these costs to be double what a steel car costs. And paint isn't cheap. And is a quality control headache.
You could probably drop all my numbers 10-15% and get a workable car. I see going under $40k really a dream for their next model, because Bluestar is going to have to bankroll their scale up. And going 20k-30k units a year to 225,000 (200k + Model S + Model X) units is really not a good idea. The really need to be about 75k-100k units before they try to add on another 200k units. Especially because of all the labor they would need to scale up. Not to mention all the sales and maintenance staff they would have to hire, and the stores they would need to open. I work in manufacturing where it takes 7-12 people to run a line. So adding 2 lines only takes hiring 20-30 people. And generally that can double production. Going from 20k-30k units to 225,000 units a year will require probably 300+ people or more just to manufacture them.
I think Tesla's Bluestar will become a 200,000 unit car that may sell for $30-$35k when it goes to 2.0. I think manufacturing, labor, and sales scaling up will keep Bluestar 1.0 in the $42-$47k range. That and Tesla is going to have to slowly bring down their margins, it will be scary for them to go from 25% to <10% in a single jump.And remember a $45k car is 21% cheaper than a Model S.
NigelM
Recovering Member
On earnings call today Elon confirms directly that Gen III is the next project after Model X and it will be "in the $30,000 range".
(This may be posted elsewhere)
(This may be posted elsewhere)
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
NigelM
Recovering Member
I don't know if this has already been posted elsewhere, but he also mentioned that R&D will be shifting from Model X to Gen III in early 2013.
He also said that while they're always making incremental improvements in their battery technology, he expects that new battery chemistry about every three years. So Model S in 2012 with one chemistry might point to Gen III in 2015 with a new chemistry.
Its always exciting to hear more about the Gen III, since that's what I plan on buying.
He also said that while they're always making incremental improvements in their battery technology, he expects that new battery chemistry about every three years. So Model S in 2012 with one chemistry might point to Gen III in 2015 with a new chemistry.
Its always exciting to hear more about the Gen III, since that's what I plan on buying.
I hope that means ramping up on r&d in early 2013. If they just start on it then, it would likely be 2015 at the earliest when it debuts, leaving tesla with no new launches in 2014.
They were working on Model X at least as early as June 2011. With a November 2013 delivery date (at the earliest), that's 2 years and 5 months
They were working on Model X at least as early as June 2011. With a November 2013 delivery date (at the earliest), that's 2 years and 5 months
I was listening to an old Martin speech where he talked about the ice testing of the Roadster. He said out on the frozen lake when a car maker is designing tracking control they would up with a gear that will work and the go back the Stutgart (or wherever) and make changes and come back check and again and it takes months. With the Electric Roadster they just open up a laptop, tap out the changes and had the car dialed in in a week.
These are the kind of things that ICE builders will have to contend with. Bluestar will be sooner than later.
These are the kind of things that ICE builders will have to contend with. Bluestar will be sooner than later.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think this is the sweet spot they want to hit as well. Would be truly compelling to a lot of city drivers.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I doubt it will happen because that price would put it under $30K with the rebate, which means Elon would have said "in the 20 range". Elon tends to quote pricing with the rebate included. I'd be surprised if they can be profitable with the type of car I think they want to build at $37,499, unless something major happens with batteries in the next few years, which they can't count on.
I should add that I'd happy pay £39,995 for a genuine 328i competitor (with rapid charging).
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