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Tesla can't deliver 50-55k cars 2015?

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And what's your guess for 2015 again? Sorry don't know where such contest is happening.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/40123-Prediction-Competition-for-2015

I would say Maoing is the favorite today.

toto_48313: 44,444

ItsNotAboutTheMoney: 45,000

schonelucht: 47,000

bonaire: 47,690

Lump: 51,888

maoing: 52,800

RobStark: 54,985

Benz: 55,000

Crowded Mind: 55,000

dalalsid: 55,001

hershey101: 55,170

Robert.Boston: 55,825

pGo: 56,000

pz1975: 56,300

SteveG3: 56,315

mrdoubleb: 57,000

ev-enthusiast: 57,200

StapleGun: 57,221

32no: 57,434

sandpiper: 57,442

NannerAirCraft: 57,753

Larken: 58,367

Gerasimental: 58,500

uselesslogin: 59,000

Svetlin: 59,100

Papafox: 59,775

mibaro2: 59,827

chickensevil: 60,000

AudubonB: 60,000

Marknyuzz: 60,500

Gerardf: 61,150

erha: 62,212

GenIIIBuyer: 63,999

Perfectlogic: 64,200

dmckinstry: 65,536

Johan: 67,000

tomas: 69,000

CGH-ON: 73,650

Familial Rhino: 74,293
 
Some important data that hasn't made it I to this thread yet: Elon gave very good data on the conference call to the effect of total capacity being able to peak at 2000 per weak in 2016 based on a planned peak of 1000 EACH of S and X. This means they can't manufacture more than 13,000 S in a single quarter.

In in other words, guidance for this year means they MUST deliver a decent number of X. It can't all be on the S.

I'm optimistic. Sounds like the supply chain is a bit of a concern but we aren't talking about some parts being out of stock entirely. Just potentially slower to get to the factory and a bottleneck.
 
Some important data that hasn't made it I to this thread yet: Elon gave very good data on the conference call to the effect of total capacity being able to peak at 2000 per weak in 2016 based on a planned peak of 1000 EACH of S and X. This means they can't manufacture more than 13,000 S in a single quarter.

In in other words, guidance for this year means they MUST deliver a decent number of X. It can't all be on the S.

I'm optimistic. Sounds like the supply chain is a bit of a concern but we aren't talking about some parts being out of stock entirely. Just potentially slower to get to the factory and a bottleneck.

You misunderstood Elon. Capacity is flexible.

If Tesla fully installs new lines and Model X is not ready for any reason they could have 2k capacity for Model S.

Or 1500 for S and 500 for X if they only have parts for 500 X per week.

Recently Elon said he would like to bias in favor of X if possible because X reservation holders have been waiting for so long.


He also said realistically production will average at most 1800. There are always problems. There may be a week here or there were they manage 2000 units when everything runs perfectly but on a typical week there will be a supplier or Fremont problem.
 
You misunderstood Elon. Capacity is flexible.

If Tesla fully installs new lines and Model X is not ready for any reason they could have 2k capacity for Model S.

Or 1500 for S and 500 for X if they only have parts for 500 X per week.

Recently Elon said he would like to bias in favor of X if possible because X reservation holders have been waiting for so long.


He also said realistically production will average at most 1800. There are always problems. There may be a week here or there were they manage 2000 units when everything runs perfectly but on a typical week there will be a supplier or Fremont problem.


This is what I see in SA Transcript

Yeah. I mean, to sort of put our cards on the table here, I mean, we're setting factory capacity to be 1,000 Ss and 1,000 Xs per week. But actual production and capacity are not exactly the same thing, so there's always some percentage lower than the capacity that is – or, like, occasionally it may hit capacity, but it's hard to maintain capacity. But our goal is – what our internal plan is, I can tell you, is that we want the factory to be able to make up to 1,000 Xs, up to 1,000 Ss per week next year and in terms of capacity. And then actual production is affected by real world issues, so there will be maybe some weeks where there is 2,000 produced and some weeks where there's very few produced because we've got factory tooling situations, hence the 1,600 to 1,800 average over the year that we're predicting.

We all know that there are only 30% common parts between S and X. So if the capacity is planned around 1,000/week, I would think the supply-chain is also built for 1,000/week. I don't think increasing the S production would be that simple given that additional capacity is not planned for. So even to successfully deliver 1,600 to 1,800 cars per week, both S and X would need to succeed in a demand perspective. A lot of us for a long time believed that it didn't matter which car succeeds more. But in reality both need to succeed to meet near term targets (one year out).

Feels like Elon is setting us up with a bomb!

What if, after looking at X, nobody wants to buy an S anymore? next year target is 45K to 50K deliveries??

If these cars are that different, why even bother create a single line where X hiccups could screw with S production?? Just have two separate lines with 1K capacity each, no? Are there efficiencies to be gained with a single line?

Just very theoretically, looking at everything they said, looks like they picked worst of both the worlds.

Why oh lord why?? I really can't comprehend this.

Maybe I should just hit the bed. It's too late.
 
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If these cars are that different, why even bother create a single line where X hiccups could screw with S production?? Just have two separate lines with 1K capacity each, no? Are there efficiencies to be gained with a single line?

Correct. Elon is not a moron. Sometimes he does not explain himself that well. He believes worldwide demand will be 50% X and 50% S although individual markets may vary greatly.

If there were no synergies to be gained then there would be two different lines.

But the lines ARE flexible. That is why they were meshed. Expectations are they will be ~50/50 but they can change and orders from suppliers can change.

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Now I feel my prediction might be a little bit optimistic even I was very conservative last December.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ition-for-2015?p=855749&viewfull=1#post855749



All my worries reflected in Q2 ER.

The glass is always half empty for Maoing :confused:

If things are going bad that means things are about to get much worse ? :biggrin:


I am thinking the over/under at 53k,
 
The demand for S is diminished. They can't build the X bc the new paint shop is not ready. Even if it was, the new body shop is not ready either. Tesla will build 45K this year, X production next year.
 
As others have pointed out, Elon said that peak output 2016 is 1000 Ses ja 1000 Xes. That means, that supply chain is also ready for that. X and S have only 30% common parts. That means that if there is an issue with X you just can't deside to produce more Ses, because there aren't enough parts.
 
You misunderstood Elon. Capacity is flexible.

If Tesla fully installs new lines and Model X is not ready for any reason they could have 2k capacity for Model S.

Or 1500 for S and 500 for X if they only have parts for 500 X per week.

Recently Elon said he would like to bias in favor of X if possible because X reservation holders have been waiting for so long.


He also said realistically production will average at most 1800. There are always problems. There may be a week here or there were they manage 2000 units when everything runs perfectly but on a typical week there will be a supplier or Fremont problem.

I see SBenson already shared the relevant part of the transcript, Rob, so I guess we are all on the same page here? Do we agree that 13000 (approx) Model S in a quarter is peak capacity for now?
 
We shouldn't base capacity assumptions on the supply chain; there's always ways to increase component production rates. There's no question in my mind that Tesla can produce more than 1,000 Model S per week if they are producing a low(er) number of Xs.
 
What if, after looking at X, nobody wants to buy an S anymore?
Maybe I should just hit the bed. It's too late.
I hope you slept well. A huge car like the X is certainly not for everyone, just as a large 4-door sedan like the S is not for everyone. Yet S sales have far exceeded Tesla's expectations (back in 2012 Elon mused about worldwide demand might be 20K units/year, but in reality it is far more than that even with no conventional advertising!). I think X sales will also exceed expectations, but that hardly means the S will stop selling.
There seems to be excessive concern in this thread about Tesla's ability to manage the supply chain for two models with some common parts, yet every other car company has complex supply chains for ten, twenty, or more car models.
I think the concern about Tesla in this area is unfounded.
 
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I hope you slept well. A huge car like the X is certainly not for everyone, just as a large 4-door sedan like the S is not for everyone. Yet S sales have far exceeded Tesla's expectations (back in 2@12 Elon mused about worldwide demand might be 20K units/year, but in reality it is far more than that even with no conventional advertising!). I think X sales will also exceed expectations, but that hardly means the S will stop selling.
There seems to be excessive concern in this thread about Tesla's ability to manage the supply chain for two models with some common parts, yet every other car company has complex supply chains for ten, twenty, or more car models.
I think the concern about Tesla in this area is unfounded.

If you have no use for a full third row seat and no use for towing capacity (the two main differences between S and X) why would you purchase an X. I don't see the demand for the S dropping, until the Model 3 arrives, then many price conscious purchases (who are on the borderline) will opt for the Model 3.
 
We shouldn't base capacity assumptions on the supply chain; there's always ways to increase component production rates. There's no question in my mind that Tesla can produce more than 1,000 Model S per week if they are producing a low(er) number of Xs.

Yes, I think it's worth pointing out that Tesla would not want suppliers barely able to meet the capacity, because a single interruption to a single supplier would be crippling. Suppliers have to be able to catch up.
 
What if, after looking at X, nobody wants to buy an S anymore? next year target is 45K to 50K deliveries??

Model X is an SUV. Model S is a Sedan. These different form factors appeal to different market segments.

Model S will always have a sleeker and sportier profile due to its lower height. Model S will also have longer range than Model X. I don't believe that introduction of Model X will cause Model S sales to fall. In browsing threads in the Model X forum, many people have been waiting for the Model X because Model S doesn't fit their needs. The people who need the capacity of Model X are already not buying Model S.

Think of cars already on the market, like Honda Accord (a midsize sedan) and Honda Pilot (a midsize SUV). There is room for both vehicles in the Honda lineup, because customers want to buy the vehicle that aligns with their needs. The availability of Honda Pilot doesn't mean that Accord sales automatically fall.
 
I see SBenson already shared the relevant part of the transcript, Rob, so I guess we are all on the same page here? Do we agree that 13000 (approx) Model S in a quarter is peak capacity for now?

For today yes. Not in two months. Tesla has previously explained the flexibility of the new line. Sometimes Elon does not explain himself with absolute precision and people take him literally. He might say this or that feature will come out in two or three months. 3 months being one week past the deadline a Tesla press release had established and people go ape #$@!. Then Tesla clarifies that Tesla will meet the deadline.
 
I hope you slept well. A huge car like the X is certainly not for everyone, just as a large 4-door sedan like the S is not for everyone. Yet S sales have far exceeded Tesla's expectations (back in 2@12 Elon mused about worldwide demand might be 20K units/year, but in reality it is far more than that even with no conventional advertising!). I think X sales will also exceed expectations, but that hardly means the S will stop selling.
There seems to be excessive concern in this thread about Tesla's ability to manage the supply chain for two models with some common parts, yet every other car company has complex supply chains for ten, twenty, or more car models.
I think the concern about Tesla in this area is unfounded.

I agree here. I think the existence of the SUV could actually HELP global sedan demand, and vice versa. Every single Tesla on the road means more brand awareness. An X driver that talks to a curious patron at the grocery store, who learns about Tesla, learns there is also a sedan ... it's all good.

Also, the existence of the X is not going to make the S less valuable. They'll keep updating the S so that new buyers of this sedan are getting the best possible car there is at the time. I don't want falcon wing doors on my sedan. I want my pano roof, which won't exist on the X. I want the sleek, sexy look of the sedan.

- - - Updated - - -

For today yes. Not in two months. Tesla has previously explained the flexibility of the new line. Sometimes Elon does not explain himself with absolute precision and people take him literally. He might say this or that feature will come out in two or three months. 3 months being one week past the deadline a Tesla press release had established and people go ape #$@!. Then Tesla clarifies that Tesla will meet the deadline.


I agree with this, Rob. I'd like to think that if they can do 2k cars per week they SHOULD be able to attain supply chain results, and whatever other results they need, to be able to push beyond 1,000 of either particular model. It might take some time, and I think it's worth getting Tesla to clarify this if at all possible. I'm going to see if I can get in touch with IR, but seeing as I'm no longer a sell side analyst (have been out of that game for getting on 5 years now!) I've no idea if they'll even talk to me.