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I am very interested in the towing capability and very glad Tesla will get experience with towing so when they build my full size SUV/Truck with towing capability it will be able to pull my large work trailers.
I am sure for some people the ability to tow something is a must have so the towing capability will get them sales they would not have otherwise had.
I am sure for some people the ability to tow something is a must have so the towing capability will get them sales they would not have otherwise had.
ZachShahan
Active Member
I was going to say you were the favorite.
My WAG atm is 51,700.
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I think your signature quote works well here. ("Here's to the crazy ones")
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Sorry, but a few of you seemed to miss part of the conference call. Elon was very clear in indicating that the general capacity would be 1000 S sedans and 1000 X SUVs but that the numbers were flexible. When pushed, he tentatively gave an expectation of perhaps 60% X production and 40% S production (instead of 50-50) in order to get more X reservation holders their vehicles faster. He also noted the possibility to shift the ration depending on demand, iirc.
For the most part, Tesla is going to make sure they don't have "just enough" supplier components for their vehicles. Of course, this is the challenge in the case of some suppliers, but if capable of it, Tesla will have enough extra supply that it won't run into production delays and missed targets.
The higher seating position will make a difference. I know many people that do not like how low the S is. So they are waiting for the X.
Different people with different preferences.
The S will still do fine with the X.
I certainly wouldn't order a Model S after the X reveal. Why? Because I know that the Model S will be updated soon to be on par with the X in terms of styling and technology. Spending over $100,000 on a car is not a trivial concern, and many owners will do their research and hold off until the Model S is updated. Nobody is in that much of a hurry to buy a BEV that they would overlook this. Even Apple's iPhone and Mac sales drop off just before a refresh. The Model X is, for all intents and purposes, a huge sign of a S refresh coming. This will hurt sales to some extent, we will have to wait and see to what extent. I think Elon's referral program is a sign that he expects more trouble than many here. If the pipeline for Model S was full, or if orders were not diminishing, there would be no reason to launch the referral program. The writing is already on the wall, folks.
Many wise men and women predicted that X will eat into S demand. Our popular defense was that it didn't matter which car gets sold as long as Tesla is selling. That view didn't account the fact that there maybe delays in adjusting to the demand changes. Yes, of course TM and it's supply chain will eventually adjust. But at what lag is the question and what would the lag mean to # deliveries is the question.
The constant talk from Elon about supply chain problems/challenges doesn't inspire much confidence.
The 1600 to 1800/week guidance seems to account for planned/un-planned factory downtimes. But I'm not sure if it accounts for any demand shifts (if there are 1200 orders for X and only 500 for S or otherway round). The base assumption seems to be that S and X will have equal demand. To me, this is an additional risk to overall deliveries in 2016.
IIRC Tesla didn't meet it's guidance three years in a row (guidance given early in the year vs actual deliveries in the year, including 2015). A lot of you might say 1600 to 1800 is already conservative. But we all said the same thing even in prior years when guidance was announced.
My prediction for next year is 75K deliveries max. It would be 2017 by the time we get 100K deliveries on S/X.
A lot of the bulls have been predicting 100K deliveries for 2016. Wall-street is expecting $8.93B revenues for 2016, which I take as about 90K deliveries - this is as of today. The reset of expectations hasn't fully happened yet. I expect more headwinds to the stock.
The constant talk from Elon about supply chain problems/challenges doesn't inspire much confidence.
The 1600 to 1800/week guidance seems to account for planned/un-planned factory downtimes. But I'm not sure if it accounts for any demand shifts (if there are 1200 orders for X and only 500 for S or otherway round). The base assumption seems to be that S and X will have equal demand. To me, this is an additional risk to overall deliveries in 2016.
IIRC Tesla didn't meet it's guidance three years in a row (guidance given early in the year vs actual deliveries in the year, including 2015). A lot of you might say 1600 to 1800 is already conservative. But we all said the same thing even in prior years when guidance was announced.
My prediction for next year is 75K deliveries max. It would be 2017 by the time we get 100K deliveries on S/X.
A lot of the bulls have been predicting 100K deliveries for 2016. Wall-street is expecting $8.93B revenues for 2016, which I take as about 90K deliveries - this is as of today. The reset of expectations hasn't fully happened yet. I expect more headwinds to the stock.
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I replied to someone who wondered why they might prefer the X over the S even if they didn't have passengers.
(Aside: you might not see smaller vehicles towing in the USA because car companies have very defensive tow ratings that help them sell larger vehicles.
In Europe the Honda CRV is rated to tow 4,400lbs, while in the USA it's rated at 1,500lb. Etc, etc, etc.)
We all cannot resist speculation, and I am not an exception. I note that Tesla has never advertised, nor has ever managed to make production keep up with demand. there have always been glitches to delay one thing or another. Now the X is demonstrating the same issues we already know about. I predict tesla will not be meeting demand a year from now either. The S will not be updated in any significant (i.e. non-retrofittable) way for another couple of years, The sales will do well, but never as well as Elon predicts. Viewed in absolute terms we'll all be happy, but in relative terms we'll still be griping about delayed gizmos.
I haven't a clue whether my shares will be worth more than they are today or not. My bet is that if Audi, BMW and MB all launch good BEV's, and they will, the market will begin to grow quickly, and Tesla will thrive.
I haven't a clue whether my shares will be worth more than they are today or not. My bet is that if Audi, BMW and MB all launch good BEV's, and they will, the market will begin to grow quickly, and Tesla will thrive.
Only if Tesla can compete in areas where companies like Audi, BMW, and MB currently excel. Given that what would be just a hiccup to another car company can become a huge production issue for Tesla, the risks are great when others enter into Tesla's space. Of course that's what Musk wants, and I agree, but Tesla has yet to prove that it can compete with others on its own turf.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This may be a faulty assumption to make.
Tesla has a history of updating Model S without any prior warning. The two examples that immediately come to mind are the Autopilot sensor suite and LTE connectivity. Tesla never made any prior announcement. The hardware just started showing up in delivered vehicles.
I expect that Model X will feature updated electronics in the form of improved sensors and next-generation computer interfaces (driver's instrument cluster and 17" center control panel). In order to keep parts inventory as simple as possible and leverage economies of scale, I would expect Tesla to standardize sensors and computers between the Model S and Model X. It is possible that Model S gets tech upgrades concurrent with Model X.
I don't believe that exterior styling will be much of an issue. Model X is an SUV. Customers who want a sporty sedan like Model S aren't going to want Model X styling.
Interior features could be a minor issue. Model S does not have much in the way of interior convenience storage or cupholders. But are customers really going to stop buying Model S because it "might" get new cupholders for the rear passengers or an overhead sunglassses compartment? That seems to be a bit of a stretch.
The only scenario where I see Model S sales possibly slowing is if Model X is revealed with significant improvements in tech features (sensors and computers) and Model S lags.
I'd also like to remind everyone that Model S is constantly being refreshed. I cannot recall any automobile that has evolved as quickly as Model S.
ZachShahan
Active Member
These other automakers haven't demonstrated that they can compete. Tesla has competitive advantages when it comes to batteries, software, charging, and overall performance. There's no sign anyone is catching up anytime soon.
I'm not sure which huge production issues you are referring to, but the falcon-wing doors are more than a simple challenge -- many people were saying they couldn't be done in a functional way. The second-row seats, which we haven't seen, are apparently even more complicated, a sculptural work of art, and perhaps cooler than the doors. This innovative and theoretically standard-busting seats are again no small thing and wouldn't just be a "hiccup" for a large automaker, considering they haven't implemented anything like them.
On additional note to put 50k Model Ses in perspective. As the wait times seem stable, if the 50k/year demand is sustainable that would be terrific, putting the S head to head with the global sales of the BMW 7 series (48k in `14), and above the Audi A8 (40k in `14). Only the Mercedes S class would beat it, but not sure by how much. Sales of that car were in the 65-68k range until 2014, but in the latest annual report Mercedes washes it together as "S-/CL-/SL-Class/SLS/Maybach" and reports 125k altogether.
If that holds true, one has to keep in mind the BMW 3 series is a bit below 500k units per year, so the Model 3 target suddenly does not seem so outlandish.
If that holds true, one has to keep in mind the BMW 3 series is a bit below 500k units per year, so the Model 3 target suddenly does not seem so outlandish.
ZachShahan
Active Member
Thanks for the context. Personally, I still expect Model S demand to increase. I think we're still in the "first followers" segment of the adoption curve (for the Model S). As more people become aware of it and its benefits, I see it surpassing all competitors, just as it has in California and Norway, where I think we can say there's broad awareness of the car.
We'll see. But at the least, it's nice to see Model S demand holding steady even as the Model X is about to launch. My biggest concern is that the Model X will have features (those "spectacular" 2nd-row seats, for example) that will eat into Model S sales a bit. But perhaps quicker acceleration and simple distaste for SUVs will keep that at bay. Personally, I'm not an SUV fan, and would actually prefer a smaller car than the Model S (which just feels unnecessarily large for me), but those falcon-wing doors and what I presume will be some amazing 2nd-row seats have me wanting it.
Anyway, not much longer and we'll see...
I'm referring to the seats that Musk referred to during the conference call. Seats are not an issue for any other automaker except Tesla, it seems. I don't see other auto makers struggling with their vendors and supply chain. They have leverage and options Tesla doesn't.
You know as I was looking up the annual reports of Mercedes and BMW (for Audi I just used Wikipedia) I was thinking about adding in some SUV numbers to kind of scope where Model X should land. Generally speaking, once X production is up and running at or above S level, I am indifferent which sells more. In fact, X will probably have a higher ASP.
However I wasn`t quite sure what the equivalent of Model X is.Sure, you can say BMW 5er -> X5 6er ->X6, but as the Model S is closer to the 7 series in size & price, it would leave the Model X without an X7 as that does not exist. On the Audi side maybe the Q7 would be the direct competitor, but on the Mercedes side I lost track. Anyway, if someone has time they can find the right match up.
In any case, SUV sales are an increasing chunk of the market, BMW has sold over 500k of the X1->X6 models in 2014.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
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