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Tesla can't deliver 50-55k cars 2015?

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I can't help but think these "spectacular" sculpted-art backseats have now been oversold. Unless they massage your backside and do your taxes people will be disappointed.

Completely agree within the context of the forums, and I too expect to be mildly disappointed. But for those people who do not follow the company day to day, I think it's likely to impress. Hopefully there will be added functionality that will allow people to imagine how that functionality could improve their experiences and keep Tesla on their minds. Hopefully we can debate about the actual seats 3 weeks from now.
 
I'm referring to the seats that Musk referred to during the conference call. Seats are not an issue for any other automaker except Tesla, it seems. I don't see other auto makers struggling with their vendors and supply chain. They have leverage and options Tesla doesn't.

Right, those are the seats, but they are supposed to be very special, so I don't think you can compare. Elon has used very strong words about them several times, and noted that they have probably been more challenging that the falcon-wing doors to get right. These are not simply "seats." Some have criticized the decision to create/use such special seats. I'm reserving my judgement until I see them, but I don't think you can compare to other automakers' seats in any case.

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I can't help but think these "spectacular" sculpted-art backseats have now been oversold. Unless they massage your backside and do your taxes people will be disappointed.

I wonder as well, but since not many have really picked up on the comments (at least in the mass media), I'm not too concerned.

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Completely agree within the context of the forums, and I too expect to be mildly disappointed. But for those people who do not follow the company day to day, I think it's likely to impress. Hopefully there will be added functionality that will allow people to imagine how that functionality could improve their experiences and keep Tesla on their minds. Hopefully we can debate about the actual seats 3 weeks from now.

Yes, this is my take. The vast majority won't know anything special is coming. And I think that's for the best. But I'm very eager to see if my response is "Wow" or "Meh, that's it?" Hopefully the former... and hopefully in ~3 weeks....
 
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Right, those are the seats, but they are supposed to be very special, so I don't think you can compare. Elon has used very strong words about them several times, and noted that they have probably been more challenging that the falcon-wing doors to get right. These are not simply "seats." Some have criticized the decision to create/use such special seats. I'm reserving my judgement until I see them, but I don't think you can compare to other automakers' seats in any case.

In my humble opinion, Musk is obfuscating with the seat issue. I'm sure there is a seat issue, but it's probably a much smaller issue than the real issue which he doesn't wish to discuss. With Musk, I find it pays to read between the lines. Even with Model S, they shipped the car with the plain seats when they ran into a problem with the vendor of the next-gen seats. To hold up production of a new vehicle over seats seems like a strange thing given how they've handled the situation in the past.

Later in the call Musk says that Model X is the most difficult car in the world to build. That statement doesn't depend on seat vendors, does it? So I propose that the primary issue is not with the seats, it's with Tesla's ability to manufacture a vehicle that the CEO has confirmed to be the most difficult vehicle in the world to build. That's the real reason for the delay.
 

It all depends on the ramp of Model X. However, by now, we know the complexities with Model X including the statements from Elon (too much engineering, only 30% common parts). It seems like a Q4 2014 all over again. Back then, there was a fairly simpler change (AWD) compared to a totally new vehicle to deal with. Can they reach lower end of the revised target? Yes. But seems very unlikely.
 

Q1 was 10,030 (http://ir.teslamotors.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=904880)

Total through 30 September 2015: 33,117 units shipped.

Today the revised to 50-52K so they must be rather confident on the low end. They need to deliver 16,843 to hit the 50K.

Basically, Tesla needs the production curve to ramp up about 50% over last quarter in order to hit 50k. Can they do this? It all depends on how well Production Line 2 is working. I don't think we'll know more until the Q3 conference call and final guidance numbers for the year. I think it's still within the realm of possibility.
 
Q1 was 10,030 (http://ir.teslamotors.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=904880)

Total through 30 September 2015: 33,117 units shipped.



Basically, Tesla needs the production curve to ramp up about 50% over last quarter in order to hit 50k. Can they do this? It all depends on how well Production Line 2 is working. I don't think we'll know more until the Q3 conference call and final guidance numbers for the year. I think it's still within the realm of possibility.

I agree with your view. I think getting the addl week of production back and having the Euro factory up and running , without the second production line in CA means at least 13k for the S, at a minimum ( since demand is not a constraint at all, particularly after Elon' s comments in the last 24 hours).

So, the new X production line would have to come up with a bare minimum of 4 k in the 4 th qtr to meet the bottom end of guidance of 50 k for the year. So, let's say zero in Oct, 1.5 K in NOV ( mostly second half of Nov ) , and 2.5 K in Dec for the X. But, this assumes suppliers, sourcing quantity and quality, assembly line ramp etc are all worked out in the next 6 weeks. So, as you said within the realm of possibility, realistically speaking.