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Tesla causing drop in gas prices

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by 4sevens.com, May 30, 2013.

  1. 4sevens.com

    4sevens.com Member

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    As more Tesla Model S's roll out and are in operation there will be a net affect on gas prices - eventually if Tesla keeps up with this trajectory it's going to significantly affect gas prices - Every EV that is sold has a cumulative effect.

    Tesla Roadster Drives 10 Million Miles and Counting | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
    The roadster logged 10 million miles in 3 years (2008 to 2011)
    representing 500,000 gallons of gas.... let's say $3.25 per gal.
    Thats 1.6million revenue taken away from gas companies.

    The current tally is 34 million miles... thats 5.5 million in revenue taken away from gas stations from roadsters only

    We already know there is an estimate of 1 million miles driven by Model S owners approximately 6 months ago.
    This is going to continue to increase with more S' on the road and the deployment of the supercharger stations.

    At some point there will be a serious tipping point where there will be an excessive surplus of oil causing problems with gas stations needing to close down and price wars etc etc...
    wouldn't awesome to see sub $1/gal prices due to the EV revolution started by tesla?
     
  2. Kaivball

    Kaivball Member

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    Then I start driving my ICE again... :)
     
  3. AMPd

    AMPd Active Member

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    I doubt well ever see $1/gal again.
    Even if majority of cars on the road use alternative fuel
     
  4. Darko

    Darko Member

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    I think it will take more than just Tesla's sales, but at some threshold - say 10% - you'll see gas prices start to fall, though I can't see all the way to $1/gal. Unfortunate as this will prolong the transition to a full EV ecosystem, but at least the most egregious/costly means of extraction such as the Canadian oil sands will close shop. Most oil though is not priced based upon fundamental costs of extraction/refining/transport but simply because that's what the market will bear. If those owning oil deposits suddenly see that they won't be able to sell their supply over 50 years at high prices, they'll lower the price to try and sell it in 20.
     
  5. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    It also depends on global demand. Emerging markets represent a large part of the equation and the number of EVs in those markets will be relatively small for at least the next decade. The impact (and hopefully success) of Model S and Gen III will cause other vehicle manufacturers to build EVs in greater numbers. That may have an impact on gas prices; but again, global markets and perhaps speculation help drive costs.
     
  6. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    I would bet that one day we will. Big oil has virtually inflated the cost of oil through various indirect and direct price fixing strategies (which is illegal, and a few combines just got nailed again for doing it http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2013/05/28/oil-probe-that-eu-says-mirrors-libor-may-reveal-huge-damage/ ). It's way above what it really should be. There's no reason gas needs to cost as much as it does today. they've just inflated it to put billions of dollars in their pocket and nobody can stop them. But once their monopoly is threatened by mass adoption of EVs, they'll surely drop it to try and entice people to keep buying petrol vehicles.
     
  7. gaswalla

    gaswalla P4201/85/airsusp/pano/19i

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    cheaper gas sounds great, but now that i've had my Model S for 6 months, I can tell you that I prefer the MS over an ICE even if it cost more per energy unit
     
  8. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    It will be a double effect on them - losing sales to EVs and then when the price of gas goes down people will ask why was it so high in the first place, espically during the ression. I would think a lot of people would not switch back just for that reason.
     
  9. Zythryn

    Zythryn MS 70D, MX 90D

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    Worldwide auto sales in 2011 were about 50 million.
    No chance Tesla, on its own will have any effect on gas prices.
    What Tesla is doing, will.
    In leading the way, encouraging competition, and showing over and over again that not only can an EV equal an ICE, it can be superior. Well, that may help.

    Oil prices below $70/barrel won't allow tar sands to be used, which will cut supply dramatically, which will cause an increase in prices.
    I am just happy that I am using local fuel, rather than contributing to our trade deficit.
     
  10. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    #10 Johann Koeber, Jun 2, 2013
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2013
    At the rate Tesla is going, it will take many years before a measurable impact on gas prices.

    That and gas prices have a political component.

    Here in Germany for example more than 50 % of the price of gas is taxes. Other countries vary, but in Europe it is difficult to find cheap gas.
    Yesterday I paid 1.64 € per liter (over 8 US$/gallon). Model S please come soon.
     
  11. Bipo

    Bipo Member

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    1.64 €/L equals 8.06 US$/gallon ;)
     
  12. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    I doubt Tesla sales volumes will ever have a direct effect on oil prices. More likely OPEC or some other organization would manipulate prices in order to slow the adoption of alternatives. (Which is why we need higher gas taxes.)
     
  13. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Success for PEV would likely lower gas prices but not by much. The economy is constrained by petroleum prices. Lower petroleum prices would help growth and push up demand. Gasoline would become a cheaper fraction, but the overall petroleum demand and market manipulation would still keep a relatively high floor.
     
  14. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    With a total of about 100,000 EV's on the road that represents about .06% of the cars on the road. So I do not see how that is even close to making the needle move. If EV's continue at a 200% growth we still have about 3 years before we break 1% of the transportation miles. There are a LOT if ICE cars on the road.
     
  15. drees

    drees Active Member

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    Great point. I know that people on the LEAF forums are always complaining about the price of charging and that if it costs more to fill up on electricity to make a trip than it will cost to drive their Prius, they say "I'll just drive the Prius". It's actually become a bit of a joke to me - there are lots of reasons to drive EVs over gas cars besides cheaper fuel costs - as you mention if it were a Model S instead of LEAF, the MS obviously is much more enjoyable to drive than just about any gas car - but I actually had people argue that the Prius drives well - that the engine doesn't lurch like crazy if you try to accelerate aggressively and that it doesn't stink up the garage like any other gas car if you cold start it without moving it out on accident!
     
  16. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    The Prius' engine will run from +7 to +67 seconds after power on if you don't drive it and don't have the cabin heater on (not counting PiP). So the correct statement is that it doesn't stink up the garage as much as an old fashioned car.
     
  17. Zapped

    Zapped Model S - PURE EV

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    Don't think electric vehicle will ever have an impact on fuel prices. IMHO we need to conserve fossil fuel for the other transportation sectors that are more difficult or impossible to electrify.
    Screen Shot 2013-06-02 at 12.10.49 PM.png
     
  18. TonyWilliams

    TonyWilliams Active Member

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    What is the source for your pie chart?
     
  19. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    No argument there, but it appears that the graph only covers transportation--not the entire amount petroleum usage. It's the entire petroleum usage that sets the prices (barring manipulation). The question is: What percentage of total usage does the 59% of light vehicles represent?
     
  20. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    I think part of it is resentment, believing that the prices some locations are charging are excessive.

    Of course, part of the pricing problem comes from states banning resale of electricity, which prevents charging systems from using a simple surcharge model. Tesla gets around that problem by charging a fixed fee up front and completely eliminating all transaction management.
     

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