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Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by mknox, Sep 29, 2015.
I guess we'll see...
This has been posted a few times, and each time I feel the sites are getting it a bit wrong. Maybe my interpretation is off, but I take musk's words to mean that the hypermilers should be able to do that since they had just been talking about someone breaking 500 miles.
Yep, that's my take as well. 600 miles as long as you are going 30mph on a flat straight smooth road at 80 F with no A/C or wind with windows up...did I get it all?
NO, you forgot the 30 MPH tailwind.
And low resistance tires inflated to 10-20% above recommended.
My interpretation is that the top-spec Model 3 will have approximately 25% more EPA range than a top-spec Model S. So somewhere around 350 miles.
They're simply forgetting that an Elon 2017 is a real world 2020 or later...
Title suggests that Elon predicted 600 mile range in normal driving. He was stating that someone using hyper-mileage techniques has already gotten around 400 miles to a charge, and that while the company will be adding capability to their cars, that the 600 mile range would be due to clever people figuring how to get the absolute miles possible. It may also include starting at higher altitude, and driving down to below sea level. This could be done driving down from Lake Tahoe to Death Valley in California. Would result in fantastic range. Doing this averaging 40 mph with a tailwind could give some whopping mileage.
Elon was not predicting that his cars were going to have some enormous breakthrough that would enable far greater range with production vehicle.
Agree. Elon was specifically talking about the case where the hyper-miler hit 400 miles I believe and even said what speed it was at in the interview. He then talked about the 600 mile range at that speed.
I suppose if you wanted to extrapolate based on that, you're looking at a 50% increase in range. So assuming that is all pack capacity and not aero/DU improvements in future models, a Model S could see 405 miles rated range (based on a 270 RR Model S of today)
That would be amazing. 400 miles rated range should get you at least 300 miles in most circumstances.
I typically multiply by .7 to get my worst case (cold and/or inclement weather up north here) and that would get me 280 real world miles. That's more than enough for any round trip I can think of us doing.
The 2017 figure was for when range would increase from 800 km (500 miles) to 1000 km (625 miles), or a 25% increase. Then he was asked how far a Tesla should be able to go in 2020, and he said 1200 km (750 miles) or a 50% increase.
So, starting with 270 miles EPA range this year, the EPA range should be 337 miles in 2017 (Model 3, probably) and 405 miles in 2020 (next gen Roadster?).
That was actually based on the 550 mile record set recently with an 85D. So it's a 10% improvement.
This is how I interpreted it as well. It was pretty clear that Elon was just riffing on the idea of max range driving at 24mph given the 550 mile record discussed in the interview. I knew immediately after I watched it that it would be terribly misquoted and taken out of context.
Once the Gigafactory is going, they will be doing things to make the batteries more efficient. There is about 30% wasted space in the battery packs now. There is speculation that the energy concentration is going to go up 30-50% which will increase range by about the same percentages. The will allow hypermilers to get much up to 600 miles, but the range in the real world will be in the 400 mile range.
I just hope Tesla will keep making a 70kWh pack (maybe eventually upgrade it to a 75kWh pack)
If you want a "camel mode" 120kWh (or maybe even 150kWh), that's great, as long as they keep a small (70ish) and a medium (90ish) sized pack
300 miles highway / 350 miles city driving range (say 250 miles driving like a maniac) is plenty for anybody that isn't range paranoid
We need cheaper EVs, while I don't expect Model S/X to drop to US$ 50k after incentives, anything they can do to make it more affordable is more important that ultra range monster packs
By the time Tesla has those huge packs, there should be 1000 superchargers worldwide, North America alone should have at least 300 superchargers, with TX/ME/MN/IA fully covered(to name a few states that are very poorly covered with SCs right now)
You will be hard pressed to find a trip that actually needs 400 miles of range with charging at the origin and destination
Lets not forget Tesla Energy... A 100kWh Power Pack will enable deploying solar only super chargers in the middle of nowhere (as long as its sunny all year round). It would be cool if there were a solution to drain a Power Pack into a Model S/X at Super Charger like power levels
And therein lies your false assumption. I am frequently trying to plan trips that do not have any charging at the destination.
Charging every 3 hours on a road trip is fine, but I also need to be able to drive 2-3 hours, park for a couple days, and then drive 2-3 hours back, and that's where I'm struggling.
For now we can't give up our ICE as our second car, there are just too many places we can't go with the current range.
We sometimes make one day drives from the North side of Portland to just south of the Bay Area in California. That's 700 miles in one day and we can usually do it with one refill of the ICE. It's a long drive and we normally make one meal stop, but otherwise just fuel and go. A 400 mile pack would be great. I haven't made the trip in a Tesla yet, but I'm expecting to probably have to make at least 2 supercharging stops, probably 3. The way they are spaced in Oregon is kind of inconvenient, the Eugene SC is only 135 miles, but the Grants Pass SC is 270 miles. I'd have to stop and "top up" in Eugene to make Grants Pass. They need SCs in Roseburg and probably Ashland to accommodate Portland drivers going to CA. It looks like they are spaced better for Seattle to CA trips.
I expect we will probably have SCs every 25 miles or so in the long run, but they are sometimes inconveniently spaced now.
Making yearly trips for Connect provides some perhaps useful data...
Bellevue, WA <--> Mountain View, CA:
- Chevrolet Equinox: 13 hours
- Tesla Model S P85D w/ Range Charging: 17-18 hours
- Tesla Model S P85 Sig w/o Range Charging: 19 hours
Capacity and refill rate both matter.
Yeah, that looks like another supercharger is needed in that route. And there are none even in the full 2016 supercharger map. Perhaps a SC in Roseburg,OR.
The larger the battery pack, the faster you could go from a 15% charge status to 15% + 200 mile capacity. But from that standpoint a very large battery will easily be able to take more charge than even the top of the line SC can serve it.
Maybe a 100-110 kWh pack could be a sweet spot in faster SC charging.