Tesla Choices to Avoid Osborning from the Upcoming EV Tax Credit

[SageBrush]

Tesla consumers may choose to wait to buy a Tesla if they think the net price will drop in the near future due to an EV tax credit.
What venues does Tesla have to avoid this 'osborning' effect, and what do you folks think is the most likely choice ?

One possibility is Tesla today announcing price increases to take effect Jan 1, 2023.
Another possibility is Tesla having enough excess demand now to ride out the Osborne window

Others ?

 

[ElectricNerd]

My concern is the value of our Teslas plummeting, since we bought them this year and aren't eligible for the tax credit because of that. We purchased our '21 M3SR+ used and our '22 M3LR new. We got the '22 delivered last week but at the price back in Feb when we ordered it. I see Tesla playing a price game with the M3 to get the cost down to just under $55k, or at least ensure the RWD version stays under that. So much for the value of ours staying where they are at.

All tax credits do is inflate the cost of the vehicle as the manufacturers know consumers will get these credits, and with this one being treated like a rebate meaning it's taken off the price of the vehicle at the time of sale, you know Tesla and the other auto manufacturers are going to take advantage of it. We taxpayers are left holding the bag at the end of the day. This is why I don't agree with giving any tax credit for EV purchases.

 

[MY1stEV]

When I bought my MYLR in April of last year there were people saying wait for the $7,500 tax credit to pass before buying. The MYLR now costs $15,500 more than I paid. Good thing I didn't wait.

My personal opinion is, the only people who might win if the tax credit passes are people who buy now and the tax credit is made retroactive to some point earlier in the year. Because as soon as this credit passes, the prices are going to go up $7500 and it will be a wash for future buyers.

 

[bro1999]

When I bought my MYLR in April of last year there were people saying wait for the $7,500 tax credit to pass before buying. The MYLR now costs $15,500 more than I paid. Good thing I didn't wait.

My personal opinion is, the only people who might win if the tax credit passes are people who buy now and the tax credit is made retroactive to some point earlier in the year. Because as soon as this credit passes, the prices are going to go up $7500 and it will be a wash for future buyers.

Put in an order now and lock in today's prices. With a fairly vanilla YLR, most likely it won't be ready for delivery until next year anyways, looking at the estimated delivery ranges.

 

[ScottNY]

Isn’t the date of purchase determined by the the delivery date and not the order date? If so, a MY ordered today won’t deliver until January - April. Wouldn’t that vehicle be eligible for the rebate?
Not that it determines eligibility, but the delivered car will likely show a 2023 model year in the VIN.

 

[mopeydopey]

Yes, date of purchase is the delivery date, because that's also the day that the money and vehicle title officially changed hands. The IRS doesn't care when people order cars, just when the "sale" date is.

 

[Raj121b]

Would be sweet if Tesla includes free/heavily discounted FSD as an incentive for 3 and Y buyers for rest of 2022
Win/win as Tesla would also increase users of FSD this way

 

[ElectricNerd]

Figures we took delivery of our ‘22 M3LR last month….

 

[bro1999]

Figures we took delivery of our ‘22 M3LR last month….

The 3 LR doesn't qualify (too expensive) so drive it without qualms!

 

[melsee]

Per a article I read yesterday, they say no EV now qualifies for the credit. Not sure if this is true since I did not check out the article very close. Believe it has to do with the battery and where it or the material comes from. Anyone see this??

 

[melsee]

Here is part of the article - says 70% not eligible now

Democrats, including West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who negotiated the deal in secret with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are running on a tough-on-China message this year. But the auto industry says that the new requirements would basically disqualify every EV on the market today.

According to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the auto industry’s main lobbying group, there are currently 72 EV models available for purchase in the United States, including battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell electric vehicles. Of those models, 70 percent are ineligible for the tax credit when the bill passes. And by 2029, when the additional sourcing requirements go into effect, none would qualify for the full credit.

 

[ElectricNerd]

The 3 LR doesn't qualify (too expensive) so drive it without qualms!

Unless Tesla lowers the price of the LR down to just under the $55k cap.

 

[bro1999]

Unless Tesla lowers the price of the LR down to just under the $55k cap.

Tesla lowering prices?

 

[RubberToe]

Tesla lowering prices?

This is exactly what Tesla will do once Austin ramps up and 4680 cells are in mass production. Tesla will be able to undercut everyone on manufacturing efficiency and will be able to play the cost reduction card at the appropriate time. If you don't understand this, you haven't been paying attention.

RT

 

[RubberToe]

Tesla lowering prices?

I thought I remembered that handle! The Bolt fanboy is back! Bolt is #1 in reliability...

 

[SageBrush]

thought I remembered that handle! The Bolt fanboy is back!

No problem. TMC remembers the ignore status

 

[bro1999]

I thought I remembered that handle! The Bolt fanboy is back! Bolt is #1 in reliability...

View attachment 838520

Lol, chill dude. GM bought back my Bolt and I'm a Model 3 owner now for the past year. But that doesn't mean I'm drinking the Elon kool aid 24/7 like some of you guys.

 

[ElectricNerd]

I’m certainly not drinking the Elon kool aid. The reason I like Tesla is they are one of the top if not the top EV companies out there. Their quality is hit or miss but what they really have going for them is the way they sell vehicles, software updates, and their fast charging network.

I can’t stand dealers and honestly we looked at a Mach-E before, but every dealer around wanted to charge at least $5-15k over MSRP and I refused. My wife didn’t like the way the Bolt looks saying it was too small and looked like a roller skate.

If the way we purchase vehicles changes and we can start purchasing directly from the manufacturers that would be a game changer and would get me to consider the other brands more. That and get the fast charging network more robust and reliable.

 

[bro1999]

This is exactly what Tesla will do once Austin ramps up and 4680 cells are in mass production. Tesla will be able to undercut everyone on manufacturing efficiency and will be able to play the cost reduction card at the appropriate time. If you don't understand this, you haven't been paying attention.

RT

If Tesla reduces the price of a Model Y by the end of this year, I'll buy you a beer (like legit apples for apples price drop, not decoupling a currently-standard feature and making it a post-delivery add-on option...stuff like that). [spoiler: prices ain't dropping]

 

[Unclepaul]

When the bill is finalized, most likely Tesla will reprice their cars to fit within the parameters.

My X was priced at $69,000 base. Long Range battery was option at $20,000. Things like this should allow customers to qualify for credits, without Tesla needing to reprice the entire car package.

Lawyers will go over the bill and determine what needs to be done to qualify.

Meanwhile, go about your business and buy the car you wish at the time you need a car. Trying to arbitrage future pricing is a bit like playing Squid Games.