Mind your m's and M's. m=.001 and M=1,000,000
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Tesla Class 8 Semi Truck Thoughts
- Thread starter AWDtsla
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- Future Tesla
You're right, sorry for messing up.
I still can't wait for this truck, I really wonder what it will be like.
So looks like I was correct in battery amounts. Even though Tesla hasn't released their battery back size yet, some back of the envelope math can tell us how big they are. They're saying < 2kWh/mile in usage. Let's go with a high 1 number, say 1.7 kWh/mile. With that number, Tesla also give us two mileage numbers, 300 miles, and 500 miles. Multiply these two numbers and we get to 500 kWh, and 850 kWh battery packs.
larmor
Active Member
I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned that it appears that a 500 mile range Tesla Semi will have almost as much energy storage capacity as 5 Powerpacks 2.0 units.
And a Megacharger would need ~4 full Powerpack 2.0 units for each Tesla Semi coming in to get a 400 mile (80%) charge. Yeah minus whatever trickle is available from Solar/the grid. (Though I thought Elon said that Megachargers would be 100% solar powered. But maybe he means net.)
My guess is that the Megachargers will be deployed with Powerpack 3.0 units that have a higher energy storage density.
And a Megacharger would need ~4 full Powerpack 2.0 units for each Tesla Semi coming in to get a 400 mile (80%) charge. Yeah minus whatever trickle is available from Solar/the grid. (Though I thought Elon said that Megachargers would be 100% solar powered. But maybe he means net.)
My guess is that the Megachargers will be deployed with Powerpack 3.0 units that have a higher energy storage density.
Electric utilities would very much like to replace the oil and gas industry. It will take planning, but utilities can build capacity as fast as Tesla and others can build EV trucks. At least in the U.S.
The electric utility system today is almost all instant delivery. The power is generated at a power plant milliseconds or less before it comes out your outlet. There is very little storage capacity, so utilities have to have peaking units running idle 24/7 to kick in and provide energy for higher demand. From past patterns they can anticipate demand and ramp up the least cost effective plants when demand is supposed to peak.
There is a revolution going on in stationary energy storage. The most straight forward is batteries, which is Tesla's solution, but there are many others in development including giant flywheels, pumping water uphill when renewables are in abundance (this is an old idea PG&E in California has done for years with hydro power at night), pouring the energy into some kind of material that can store the energy until it's needed.
Some materials for batteries are being explored that allow them to be made very cheaply. These cheap batteries don't have great energy density, but they don't have to in many places. If you want to tear down an old coal burning power plant and put in a battery farm, you can still cram a lot of capacity of low density batteries in that footprint.
Tesla will probably own the high end of this market where space is at a premium and the customer needs a lot of capacity crammed into a relatively small space. Other companies will likely have the lower density solutions. In any case, peaking unit power plants will probably become a thing of the past and even with higher overall demand to fuel electric vehicles, the system will be able to handle it.
Solar, wind, and tidal energy will probably make up most of the expansion of capacity and will help utilities sunset more expensive power plants early, but storage will be the magic ingredient that allows it all to work.
Truck terminals will probably have to draw some power from the grid. They will become heavy electricity users. Stores that charge up delivery trucks as they sit unloading may need some grid power, but many big box stores will be able to meet their needs with rooftop solar and with a battery pack out back of the store, be able to charge up delivery trucks too.
I can see where big retailers like Walmart, supermarket chains, etc. would love to have electric delivery trucks. It will save them huge amounts in diesel every year and even if they need to draw some grid power to run those trucks, even with partial solar they will be drastically cutting the costs for their trucks.
I didn't expect Tesla to be offering a 500 mile truck yet, but they probably want it for their own use. One "dirty" secret Tesla has to deal with every day is they have a fleet of service and delivery trucks burning fossil fuels. Even if nobody else buys the 500 mile truck, Tesla will replace their own delivery truck fleet with them. It's 700 miles from Fremont to Portland, OR and they make several deliveries a week in Portland now. It's another 180 miles to Seattle.
I believe it takes the trucks about 1 1/2 days to get to Portland, they usually get to the Portland delivery center around mid-day to 2 PM. I see them every time I go to the service center (which isn't very often) and that's almost always early afternoon. Their route is probably stop the 1st night somewhere around 200-300 miles from Portland, stop at the Portland service center around noon-2PM, then up to Seattle, finish unloading and spend the night in the Seattle area, then back home. The car storage yard for the Northwest is somewhere in the Seattle area (there are a fair number of CPO Teslas listed in Seattle, but none in Portland).
If they have a 500 mile truck, that gives them some extra capacity for winter if they do about 400 miles in a day.
There is a revolution going on in stationary energy storage. The most straight forward is batteries, which is Tesla's solution, but there are many others in development including giant flywheels, pumping water uphill when renewables are in abundance (this is an old idea PG&E in California has done for years with hydro power at night), pouring the energy into some kind of material that can store the energy until it's needed.
Some materials for batteries are being explored that allow them to be made very cheaply. These cheap batteries don't have great energy density, but they don't have to in many places. If you want to tear down an old coal burning power plant and put in a battery farm, you can still cram a lot of capacity of low density batteries in that footprint.
Tesla will probably own the high end of this market where space is at a premium and the customer needs a lot of capacity crammed into a relatively small space. Other companies will likely have the lower density solutions. In any case, peaking unit power plants will probably become a thing of the past and even with higher overall demand to fuel electric vehicles, the system will be able to handle it.
Solar, wind, and tidal energy will probably make up most of the expansion of capacity and will help utilities sunset more expensive power plants early, but storage will be the magic ingredient that allows it all to work.
Truck terminals will probably have to draw some power from the grid. They will become heavy electricity users. Stores that charge up delivery trucks as they sit unloading may need some grid power, but many big box stores will be able to meet their needs with rooftop solar and with a battery pack out back of the store, be able to charge up delivery trucks too.
I can see where big retailers like Walmart, supermarket chains, etc. would love to have electric delivery trucks. It will save them huge amounts in diesel every year and even if they need to draw some grid power to run those trucks, even with partial solar they will be drastically cutting the costs for their trucks.
I didn't expect Tesla to be offering a 500 mile truck yet, but they probably want it for their own use. One "dirty" secret Tesla has to deal with every day is they have a fleet of service and delivery trucks burning fossil fuels. Even if nobody else buys the 500 mile truck, Tesla will replace their own delivery truck fleet with them. It's 700 miles from Fremont to Portland, OR and they make several deliveries a week in Portland now. It's another 180 miles to Seattle.
I believe it takes the trucks about 1 1/2 days to get to Portland, they usually get to the Portland delivery center around mid-day to 2 PM. I see them every time I go to the service center (which isn't very often) and that's almost always early afternoon. Their route is probably stop the 1st night somewhere around 200-300 miles from Portland, stop at the Portland service center around noon-2PM, then up to Seattle, finish unloading and spend the night in the Seattle area, then back home. The car storage yard for the Northwest is somewhere in the Seattle area (there are a fair number of CPO Teslas listed in Seattle, but none in Portland).
If they have a 500 mile truck, that gives them some extra capacity for winter if they do about 400 miles in a day.
dc_h
Active Member
Exactly. Roof solar with batteries and sell the power back at 7 cents and a ppa to get the capex off the books. A large distribution center may require building panels over the lot as well. Typical DC will cover several acres.
larmor
Active Member
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