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Tesla.com - "Transitioning to Tesla Vision"

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For now he feels confident enough that the system won't be degraded so much that he has to stop selling cars, but definitely not confident enough to claim it's on par with Radar.
This is the part I don't fully trust. The man has single-handedly managed to hype FSD for Tesla for years now without really being able to deliver anything all that meaningful, while charging consumers $5k-$10k and hasn't faced any real repurcussions for these shenanigans. Like with Jobs, he has a strong reality distortion field and what he feels confident about means very little given how confident he has been about any number of crazy FSD goals that he claimed were months away.

My less charitable interpretation is that he needs to keep the company afloat and cannot afford to park tens of thousands of cars for weeks or months while waiting on radar components for them. So he is doing what he needs to do to keep things going, but is engaging his reality distortion field to cover for the fact that he is delivering a weaker product to his customers.

I personally hope you are right about things, and I am rooting for them to achieve parity between vision-only and the older hybrid system, but I am not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because of how things have gone down in the past and this whole situation doesn't pass the smell-test as far as I am concerned.
 
I'm the one that posted Tesla had removed AEB from their OWN WEBSITE on the day they also removed radar. A surprising bit of honesty from Tesla.
Then it suddenly got a lot of discussion on Reddit, and volia, Tesla added it back.

But then, when NHTSA notices this irregularity, they ask Tesla if the cars have AEB, and Tesla says NO.... And tesla is keeping radar on cars in countries that require AEB....

This is not "regulatory," Tesla themselves indicated the new cars don't have AEB on their own website. NHTSA picked up on this, asked Tesla if it has AEB, and updated their ratings. Then Tesla changed back again. So yeah, now Tesla has to re-prove it, because they brought this on themselves. And of course, it appears Tesla actually DOESN'T have AEB on these cars anymore, so this is exactly what should be happening. The only thing the regulator is doing is preventing Tesla from lying to customers about the features the car has.

The real unethical thing here now is Tesla listing AEB and other features on their site as standard features that they are telling regulators are not there.
Not seeing how this is not regulatory. Tesla briefed NHTSA on this production change according to the reports. I highly doubt it was NHTSA that looked at a reddit's post (or similar reports) and then asked Tesla. NHTSA certainly didn't say they initiated the question in their statements to the media, rather they suggest it was Tesla that reported the removal of radar to them actively.
Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

As discussed in the other thread, while AEB compliance may be "voluntary", NHTSA is using the safety ratings as a "stick" to get automakers in line with their commitments (which is the justification for not making it "mandatory" in the first place). As for Tesla having it on the site, while NHTSA is removing the checkmark, I'm reminded of the initial AP2 AEB roll out. The car technically had "AEB" but it didn't meet standard test criteria (done by Consumer Reports at the time). I imagine in this case, it does not meet NHTSA's NCAP standards as discussed in the previous thread. Again, doesn't need to be "mandatory" to not be a regulatory standard.
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Automatic Emergency Braking
 
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I won't deny that Tesla can make sudden decisions. But in this case, given some of the corroborating stories about BMW struggling with sourcing radar for their cars and even leaving it entirely out of some of their current cars, the part shortage theory does seem quite plausible as what precipitated this sudden change. I don't doubt that Tesla was planning to try and transition to vision-only. But I don't think they really wanted to be forced into the current timeframe with a severely restricted set of features for the new cars without radar.
Link to that story about BMW having a radar shortage? I didn't find a report in a search. BMW may be leaving out radar due to the chip shortage, but it may be because they leave out the entire ADAS option package due to the shortage of chips required to offer that option package, not because of shortage of radar units specifically. From my search, I have not found any source that said there was a shortage of radar units, just the chips used for processing ADAS.
 
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I still don't see why they don't just add the radar later.

If this recent move to Vision-Only really is due to lack of parts for the radar, and possibly is also the reason tens of thousands of cars have been sitting in containment hold unable to be sold, why not allow the radar parts to be added later when they are available?

Sell it now with the modified software that gives partial autopilot functionality with the limited sensor input, and then offer the radar install at a trip to the dealer later.
 
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Tesla changed radar suppliers between HW2 and 2.5. Are you sure that they hadn't run out of HW2 radars before the software was ready and had to drop HW2.5 radars in?

Like now, the made that change before they had the SW ready, and they didn't tell prospective buyers. That became a huge deal when Consumer Reports dropped their ratings and exposed it.
That older Bosch radar was fairly widely used so I highly doubt it was a shortage issue back then. Plus that was not the only hardware change (there was also a extra processor node and wiring changes). Seems like a huge stretch just to try to fit into a specific theory. As I mentioned in other comment, I have failed to find reports of a shortage of radar units even in this case, just shortage of processors. Much easier to believe this is just another example of how Tesla operates (making hardware changes suddenly and having software catch up later).
 
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...
Other food for thought. What unexpected benefits might there be for us to have a car that now navigates using only passive sensor technology?

When I take delivery of my radar-less MY, I will rest assured that it has no radar signature and cannot be mistaken for a mobile SAM launch platform, greatly reducing my threat profile to the USAF and Air Guard pilots who fly every day fron Davis-Monthan AFB and Tucson International. As a further safety feature, this new Tesla stealth-AP mode will render me nearly invulnerable to targeting by an unquestionably dangerous AGM-88B HARM High-speed Anti-Radiation missile, should one go rogue and escape from the local Raytheon assembly line.

Sure, I know what you're thinking, you can try to dismiss this as an "edge case", but hey it's all about the March of Nines; no danger is too small to consider.
To us here it could become all too real, an existential issue!
In fact the more I think about this, the more convinced I am that I want no part of this life-endangering Radar - and to think I almost ordered in March. Whew that was a close one.

In fact, if Elon tries to re-fit this radar, we may have to band together. We know there always users here itching for Class Actions - be ready folks!

... ... sorry, it's getting late... maybe I'll be calmer in the morning...
 
When I take delivery of my radar-less MY, I will rest assured that it has no radar signature and cannot be mistaken for a mobile SAM launch platform, greatly reducing my threat profile to the USAF and Air Guard pilots who fly every day fron Davis-Monthan AFB and Tucson International. As a further safety feature, this new Tesla stealth-AP mode will render me nearly invulnerable to targeting by an unquestionably dangerous AGM-88B HARM High-speed Anti-Radiation missile, should one go rogue and escape from the local Raytheon assembly line.

Sure, I know what you're thinking, you can try to dismiss this as an "edge case", but hey it's all about the March of Nines; no danger is too small to consider.
To us here it could become all too real, an existential issue!
In fact the more I think about this, the more convinced I am that I want no part of this life-endangering Radar - and to think I almost ordered in March. Whew that was a close one.

In fact, if Elon tries to re-fit this radar, we may have to band together. We know there always users here itching for Class Actions - be ready folks!

... ... sorry, it's getting late... maybe I'll be calmer in the morning...
*sugar*. My wife drives our Tesla on Thursdays, I guess I'll have to remove the radar tonight after work.
 
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I assume everyone received the blog piece that I wrote. I’ll just give it a basic overview. I think the real exciting thing is that we are making a much more effective use of radar. Where previously the use of the radar in the car was as a supplementary system to the vision system. Essentially because we weren’t confident that we could resolve false positives – like with radar we think that it should brake but it shouldn’t.

But after a lot of analysis and getting some upgraded drivers from our supplier for the radar to expose more raw functionality we now believe that we can combine that with fleet learning and almost entirely eliminate the false positive – the false braking events – and enable the car to initiate braking no matter what the object is as long as it is not large and fluffy.
Radar sees through rain, fog, snow, dust, and essentially quite easily. So even if you are driving down the road and the visibility was very low and there was a big multi-car pileup or something like that and you cant’ see it, the radar would and it would initiate braking in time to avoid your car being added to the multi-car pileup.

In fact, an additional level of sophistication – we are confident that we can use the radar to look beyond the car in front of you by bouncing the radar signal off the road and around the car. We are able to process that echo by using the unique signature of each radar pulse as well as the time of flight of the photon to determine that what we are seeing is in fact an echo in front of the car that’s in front of you. So even if there’s something that was obscured directly both in vision and radar, we can use the bounce effect of the radar to look in front of that car and still brake.
 
So to clarify why does Elon dislike lidar/radar so much. Is it because it’s too expensive?

No. Radar is not expensive at all. And the cost of lidar has also come way down. Several automakers are including a front lidar in their luxury brands for L2+ features. Cost is not the issue.

Camera vision provides rich information, including shapes, sizes and colors. In theory, camera vision can give you all the information you need to do full self-driving, assuming you have accurate and reliable camera vision of course. The information you get from lidar and radar, can also be obtained from camera vision. There is reason to believe that eventually (we don't know when), camera vision will be so good, that it will be able to do FSD without lidar or radar. So, I think the main reason Elon dislikes lidar/radar so much is simply that he does not believe they add enough benefit in the long term. He feels that you can do FSD without them, as soon as camera vision is good enough which it should be eventually, so why bother with extra sensors that will just give you the same information you already have. On the surface, that makes sense. There is a certain logic to it. But Elon is putting all his FSD eggs in the vision-only basket. If it works, it will be great. Tesla will have FSD for dirt cheap and super easy to scale. If it does not work, Tesla will be forced to add sensors to our cars.

The reason AV companies use lidar and radar is because there are conditions where camera vision will fail, where lidar and radar will not fail. For example, lidar works perfectly in total darkness where camera vision will deteriorate. And radar works great in dense fog, heavy rain and snow, where camera vision will deteriorate. So having lidar and radar provides extra reliability in different conditions. Lidar and radar work by bouncing a laser or radar signal off an object and measuring the time to come back. We know the speed of light, so we can calculate the distance very precisely. Lidar and radar can measure distance very precisely with less computing power. Camera vision can also get distance measurement but you have to extract the information by analyzing the image, which requires more computing power. Lidar can give you a very high resolution 3D "map". So with lidar, you can also classify objects, terrain etc... Radar can give you very accurate velocity of moving objects even in low visibility conditions. IMO, there is a benefit in having sensors that can give you valuable information like distance and velocity in more diverse conditions and don't require a lot of computing power.

Here is a video of Argo's new lidar. It basically gives the car incredibly accurate perception, even in total darkness:


Anyway, I tried to be fair to both sides. I hope that makes sense.
 
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No. Radar is not expensive at all. And the cost of lidar has also come way down. Several automakers are including a front lidar in their luxury brands for L2+ features. Cost is not the issue.

Camera vision provides rich information. In theory, camera vision can give you all the information you need to do full self-driving, assuming you have accurate and reliable camera vision of course. The information you get from lidar and radar, can also be obtained from camera vision. There is reason to believe that eventually (we don't know when), camera vision will be so good, that it will be able to do FSD without lidar or radar. So, I think the main reason Elon dislikes lidar/radar so much is simply that he does not believe they add enough benefit in the long term. He feels that you can do FSD without them, as soon as camera vision is good enough which it should be eventually, so why bother with extra sensors that will just give you the same information you already have. On the surface, that makes sense. There is a certain logic to it. But Elon is putting all his FSD eggs in the vision-only basket. If it works, it will be great. Tesla will have FSD for dirt cheap and super easy to scale. If it does not work, Tesla will be forced to add sensors to our cars.

The reason AV companies use lidar and radar is because there are conditions where camera vision will fail, where lidar and radar will not fail. For example, lidar works perfectly in total darkness where camera vision will deteriorate. And radar works great in dense fog, heavy rain and snow, where camera vision will deteriorate. So having lidar and radar provides extra reliability in different conditions. Lidar and radar work by bouncing a laser or radar signal off an object and measuring the time to come back. We know the speed of light, so we can calculate the distance very precisely. Lidar and radar can measure distance very precisely with less computing power. Camera vision can also get distance measurement but you have to extract the information by analyzing the image, which requires more computing power. Lidar can give you a very high resolution 3D "map". So with lidar, you can also classify objects, terrain etc... Radar can give you very accurate velocity of moving objects even in low visibility conditions. IMO, there is a benefit in having sensors that can give you valuable information like distance and velocity in more diverse conditions and don't require a lot of computing power.

Here is a video of Argo's new lidar. It basically gives the car incredibly accurate perception, even in total darkness:


Anyway, I tried to be fair to both sides. I hope that makes sense.
Wow thank you for the very detailed explanation, that makes a lot of sense
 

If Tesla is going camera/vision only, have they upgraded their cameras?

Eight cameras in total designed into Model 3 are based on the same 1.2 Megapixel image sensors released by On Semiconductor in 2015. “They are low cost. They are neither new nor high resolution,” observed Fraux.
 

If Tesla is going camera/vision only, have they upgraded their cameras?

I don't think more megapixels or resolution is a good thing. Generally, with video processing, you want the lowest resolution possible that will achieve the result you want since higher resolutions means more processing power needed.
 
If Tesla is going camera/vision only, have they upgraded their cameras?
Nothing on their AP page changed to indicate that the cameras are more capable than before. Also, the fact that they are keeping radar on the S/X and in non-North America markets seems to indicate that this was not a well planned or tested change, so it's unlikely they have a whole new windshield camera assembly to go along with this.
 
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Tesla has now started removing anything that ever referenced their use of radar, even from historic blogs that touted the benefits of radar. This is now gone, but all the other blog posts back to 2011 are there: https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar

The net effect of this, combined with the fact that radar sees through most visual obscuration, is that the car should almost always hit the brakes correctly even if a UFO were to land on the freeway in zero visibility conditions.

Taking this one step further, a Tesla will also be able to bounce the radar signal under a vehicle in front - using the radar pulse signature and photon time of flight to distinguish the signal - and still brake even when trailing a car that is opaque to both vision and radar. The car in front might hit the UFO in dense fog, but the Tesla will not.

We have always been at war with Eastasia.
 

If Tesla is going camera/vision only, have they upgraded their cameras?
Announcement does not mention any camera upgrade. I don't think Tesla will upgrade their cameras at this juncture because the camera hardware capabilities is not their bottleneck right now (if you watch FSD Beta videos and see where it fails, detection isn't the issue, it's the decision making that's the issue).

Despite the impressions of people that higher res is always better, that's not really the case for NNs. They don't really need a high res image, and if you have a high res sensor (more than NN can use), all you end up doing is largely having to waste processing cycles to downsample the image (how to do this in a way that does not degrade the image further, or ideally enhance the image, is a whole other subject). There may be some advantage in terms of cropping for long range imaging, but having a camera with a lens of narrower FOV is a more proper solution (why a lot of cars today have front cameras of multiple FOV).
 
I don't think more megapixels or resolution is a good thing. Generally, with video processing, you want the lowest resolution possible that will achieve the result you want since higher resolutions means more processing power needed.
This, and there is another layer to it.
Anything in the stack that used pixel level projections or estimation would need to be re-trained as well.
Each pixel would represent a smaller subset of what a pixel represented on the previous (lower res) camera.