Tesla Compact Hatch Coming?

[MD-2000]

CATL is the world's largest battery manufacturer. LFP is longer lived, more stable, safer, less expensive per KWh, and easier to scale to TWh/yr production. Not sure what you're looking for.

AltairNano's LFP (or LiFP) batteries took amazing amounts of current, allowing them to charge very fast with only ambient cooling due to the low internal resistance of the chemistry. They got some sort of DOE award for charging 100 miles of range in 10 minutes with a 250 kW (unheard of at the time) charger.

The obvious question is why if they outshine current batteries, LFP are not the default battery for all EV's? what's the drawback?

My point about caution is based on the posts I've read about early Leaf's with their soft-cell batteries. Apparently the earlier ones suffered from degradation issues from heat and expansion. The idea would be that to ensure products are reliable, some sort of real-life "road test" is appropriate, particularly before committing to high-volume production.

 

[MD-2000]

Agreed. You clearly do not share Elon's great vision.

Yes, but he's probably talking 2023 in "Elon Years".

 

[Artful Dodger]

The obvious question is why if they outshine current batteries, LFP are not the default battery for all EV's? what's the drawback?

My point about caution is based on the posts I've read about early Leaf's with their soft-cell batteries. Apparently the earlier ones suffered from degradation issues from heat and expansion. The idea would be that to ensure products are reliable, some sort of real-life "road test" is appropriate, particularly before committing to high-volume production.

Here's another point-of-view from "The Tesla Economist" channel on Youtube:

Elon Agrees Iron Batteries are the Future for Tesla and EVs

 

[mark95476]

Here's the competition in this price bracket. Check out the Yoke!

 

[Earl]

The obvious question is why if they outshine current batteries,

They don't 'shine'. They have pros and cons.

The cons beingg much less Specific Energy (WH/kg) than other Lithium ion technologies. I other words, the battery to get you a particular range will weigh much more (2x - 3x) with iron than other ions.

 

[MD-2000]

Here's the competition in this price bracket. Check out the Yoke!

From what I find on Google, also ... ID1 or ID 2- coming in 2025!

I suspect the EV market will be a bit more shaken up by then. We'll have had longer experience with all the players and a good idea what works. If Tesla doesn't have a urban runabout by then, it will be because of battery supply issues, I assume. Which, again, should be solved by then. Plus assorted incremental improvements in all battery tech.

Oh well. Perhaps my next car won't be a Tesla "Mini". Perhaps it will. Depends what's out when it's time to replace the other (ICE) vehicle. Tesla has the edge simply because then I wouldn't need to put a second charger in the garage, and run extra wiring, another breaker, and possibly increase my power feed from 100A to 200A... Charging arrangements are also an issue for anyone looking for a second car, I assume.

 

[Bad Dolphin]

Look at it from a German or European point of view. Here we don't have the huge distances of the US. About the longest vacation trip, like from Germany to southern Italy, is only about 1,000 km = 621 miles. I just did such a trip, altogether some 2,500 km to, around, and fro, in October with my Model 3 SR+ and didn't think that my battery was too small. Sure, it did take me about an hour longer than in a Diesel car under normal assumptions and maybe a half hour longer than in a long-range Tesla, but that honestly didn't matter.

I doubt that somebody from northern Germany would drive to southern Italy in one day, so that still doesn't require a longer range.

People in the cramped, partly medieval city streets value shorter cars because of parking. They generally make do with smaller cars. Many people cannot afford a Model 3, so a somewhat lower price would enlarge the potential market quite a bit. Add to this that the fixed-size government subsidy for new electric cars has a proportionally bigger effect on lower-priced cars.

If Tesla understood this, and I think they do, they could aim for a smaller, lower-priced hatchback for the best combination of four to five seats, a still large cargo volume with the rear seats folded forward, and easy loading on a flat surface with the rear door up in the air. A range similar to the SR+ could be ideal, but they could also add a long-range version if they wanted to.

For the best battery health, Tesla recommends avoiding charging over 80% or using below 20%. Pragmatically, that means dropping 40% of range for best battery care.

we live on an island, and we’re unhappy that (fairly early adopters) the short range battery model was not available—we had to pay for the LR. Now, we’re happy we have it as it is easy to take good care of the battery.

 

[hgmichna]

For the best battery health, Tesla recommends avoiding charging over 80% or using below 20%. Pragmatically, that means dropping 40% of range for best battery care.

we live on an island, and we’re unhappy that (fairly early adopters) the short range battery model was not available—we had to pay for the LR. Now, we’re happy we have it as it is easy to take good care of the battery.

The recommendation is to avoid full and empty most of the time, but not always. For a long-range drive where you need the full capacity, I think you should use it. After all, the battery is there to serve your needs, not the other way around.

I am planning a ride that can be done without charging only if I charge to 100% before departure. So I will charge to 100% for once. Most of the time I charge only to 60% for maximal battery longevity. And that's what I recommend, except for LFP batteries, which are much more resilient.

 

[MD-2000]

The recommendation is to avoid full and empty most of the time,

There was a Model S used as a taxi between Vegas and LA had about 194,000 miles on it before it needed a new battery, and that because some cells failed.
See -

Here’s how a Tesla Model S holds up after 400,000 miles in 3 years - Perriott Partners

Tesla’s vehicles are becoming increasingly popular with taxi and shuttle services, which are pushing their vehicles a lot over short periods of time – giving us a good glimpse at how the cars hold up with high mileage. Tesloop, a Tesla-only shuttle service based in Southern California, recently...

perriottpartners.com

>The first battery pack replacement happened after 194,000 miles. At that time, the battery pack energy capacity degradation was at ~6%, which is reasonable, but Tesla found a problem due to Tesloop’s frequent Supercharging.

These vehicles were being supercharged regularly, often multiple times a day. One is mentioned as having 300,000 miles and -10% degradation.

So yes, you can abuse your battery, but does not mean it will fail dramatically or lose much capacity in a matter of a year. Just... when you don't need to exceed those recommendations - don't.

 

[Buckminster]

Over and over people imagine that there is no need for smaller cars than Model 3 and/or Elon has said there will not be any such vehicle and/or small means cheap and low margin. If my memory is correct every single opinion along these liens comes from somebody in North America.
Major auto markets such as India, Brazil, all of Europe and Africa plus almost all of Asia has strong preference for smaller vehicles, whether cheap or expensive.ts a

Until the chip shortages are resolved there is no way to serve these markets with any products at all, except perhaps as a preliminary market test. Hence Elon's comments.

Most posters equate small with low margin. That is false.

Despite repeated detailed explanations that even include relative pricing and volumes of various small car versions these incorrect posts keep happening.
Please, when considering vehicle form factors consider the worldwide vehicle size distributions and check out the Posted Prices by version, then compare relative volumes. Such analyses have been posted innumerable times.

Once that has been done then examine where Tesla has sales today and how closely the current model availability corresponds with market shares.

Bluntly, Tesla can easily quadruple sales without hampering margins once there are smaller models available using Tesla design and construction technologies.
In this post I am not repeating any of the data that has already been posted periodically by several of us. I will offer some obvious hints:

Compare BMW 1 series models for base price and higher end price. Then check volumes for each in any given market.
Compare similar choices for any major OEM.
Next make sure to check, for example, Toyota Corolla pricing and features between, say, the USA and , say, Brazil. You'll discover that many models sell and are priced as luxury vehicles in some markets and in others as cheap entry level basic ones.

Finally, consider the cost accounting consequences of increased volumes in capital intensive products.

All that might well help us to avoid superficial and incorrect generalizations.

Note 1: I apologize if my tone seems strident. It becomes a bit tiresome to keep seeing the same reasoning over and over.
Note 2: These comments are in part driven my my habit of buying 'hot hatches' over the years, invariably with ASP of roughly twice the base model.

 

[Watts_Up]

>> Over and over people imagine that there is no need for smaller cars than Model 3

People Just want EV they can afford to buy.

 

[3Volts2aTes]

Yeah basically I want an electric Impreza, Tesla style. Don’t need too many luxuries in it. Just give me AP. Keep the suspension firm. Make the car handle amazing and quick as an m3p. 300 mile range is fine.

Yes. Or something like the old Impulse…of course properly up to date. We would definitely end up with another car.

 

[OliverM3]

I would love something small and nimble. I love the M3LR but I took my mini to work today such a blast to drive.
I know Mini has an EV but I'd rather have something small made by Tesla. The range and performance just isn't there on the mini. . Honestly I don't need the size of the M3 it's just wasted space and weight that I'm carrying around with me on my solo commute to work.

 

[Earl]

I know Mini has an EV but I'd rather have something small made by Tesla.

The 2nd MiniEV did have a Tesla drivetrain in it (The 1st had an AC Propulsion one. They provided the original prototype drivetrain for the Tesla Roadster). Then the anti-bodies at BMW formed and pushed Tesla away.
It would be nice for a good Tesla mini-car, just as every other vehicle type. It only takes time.

 

[MD-2000]

I think Tesla needs a small EV.

Whenever people talk about cars, they mention that the problem is North Americans buy these giant SUV's with off-road pretensions, then just drive them in stop-and-go traffic 30 miles to and from work on smooth roads with one passenger. As most manufacturers have found, when they offer a smaller car - people will buy, but with modern prosperity, will ask for the same luxuries - heated seats, fancy sound systems, navigation, etc. that are found on higher end luxury vehicles.

The issue I see is that the person driving 30 miles each way to commute may not need to haul around enough batteries for a 300-mile road trip, if that is a detriment to range. Perhaps a commuter vehicle with a shorter range as a second vehicle would satisfy many commuters. The accompanying economy comes is a smaller, lighter vehicle with less weight stress. Having acquired a second set of wheels for winter tires, those Model 3 rims are HEAVY - because the whole car is heavy. I suggest a car about the size of my 1990 Honda Civic hatchback, with say, 200 miles of range - less pep if that makes for a smaller, lighter, less power-demanding motor. But still with all the perks of Tesla, FSD and Autopilot. etc. I can't imagine a more apt application of FSD than driving congested streets at low speeds, or expressway commutes.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I think Tesla needs a small EV.

Whenever people talk about cars, they mention that the problem is North Americans buy these giant SUV's with off-road pretensions, then just drive them in stop-and-go traffic 30 miles to and from work on smooth roads with one passenger. As most manufacturers have found, when they offer a smaller car - people will buy, but with modern prosperity, will ask for the same luxuries - heated seats, fancy sound systems, navigation, etc. that are found on higher end luxury vehicles.

The issue I see is that the person driving 30 miles each way to commute may not need to haul around enough batteries for a 300-mile road trip, if that is a detriment to range. Perhaps a commuter vehicle with a shorter range as a second vehicle would satisfy many commuters. The accompanying economy comes is a smaller, lighter vehicle with less weight stress. Having acquired a second set of wheels for winter tires, those Model 3 rims are HEAVY - because the whole car is heavy. I suggest a car about the size of my 1990 Honda Civic hatchback, with say, 200 miles of range - less pep if that makes for a smaller, lighter, less power-demanding motor. But still with all the perks of Tesla, FSD and Autopilot. etc. I can't imagine a more apt application of FSD than driving congested streets at low speeds, or expressway commutes.

There is clearly a market for a smaller shorter-range cheaper Tesla. However right now Tesla cannot build enough of what it's already created, and has at least 2 more vehicles designed and waiting (CT and Roadster).

Every would-be model-2 made would take away from the count of Model 3 and Y's Tesla can ship.

So I think Elon was correct when he recently set expectations that there won't be a mini/hatch in the near term - it would be a great thing for those of us who love hatches, but a crappy business decision for Tesla. Give them about 2 years to get production capacity ramped and the cybertruck,. roadster and semi in production and then I figure it'll come since it is an obviously good fit for customer needs. I'd love a little city-car Tesla to augment my MYLR.

 

[OliverM3]

I think Tesla needs a small EV.

Whenever people talk about cars, they mention that the problem is North Americans buy these giant SUV's with off-road pretensions, then just drive them in stop-and-go traffic 30 miles to and from work on smooth roads with one passenger. As most manufacturers have found, when they offer a smaller car - people will buy, but with modern prosperity, will ask for the same luxuries - heated seats, fancy sound systems, navigation, etc. that are found on higher end luxury vehicles.

The issue I see is that the person driving 30 miles each way to commute may not need to haul around enough batteries for a 300-mile road trip, if that is a detriment to range. Perhaps a commuter vehicle with a shorter range as a second vehicle would satisfy many commuters. The accompanying economy comes is a smaller, lighter vehicle with less weight stress. Having acquired a second set of wheels for winter tires, those Model 3 rims are HEAVY - because the whole car is heavy. I suggest a car about the size of my 1990 Honda Civic hatchback, with say, 200 miles of range - less pep if that makes for a smaller, lighter, less power-demanding motor. But still with all the perks of Tesla, FSD and Autopilot. etc. I can't imagine a more apt application of FSD than driving congested streets at low speeds, or expressway commutes.

hopefully it won't be to much less range. I don't need a small car for a shorter commute I just need a small car because it's just me driving the 100 miles per day. I still want the same or more performance and range. just with less weight for a little more fun and less waste.
I can deal with a little less a car with 250miles would still suit my needs.

The roadster would be fun but it's way out of my price range.

 

[Earl]

I think Tesla needs a small EV.

Whenever people talk about cars, they mention that the problem is North Americans buy these giant SUV's with off-road pretensions, then just drive them in stop-and-go traffic 30 miles to and from work on smooth roads with one passenger. As most manufacturers have found, when they offer a smaller car - people will buy, but with modern prosperity, will ask for the same luxuries - heated seats, fancy sound systems, navigation, etc. that are found on higher end luxury vehicles.

The issue I see is that the person driving 30 miles each way to commute may not need to haul around enough batteries for a 300-mile road trip, if that is a detriment to range. Perhaps a commuter vehicle with a shorter range as a second vehicle would satisfy many commuters. The accompanying economy comes is a smaller, lighter vehicle with less weight stress. Having acquired a second set of wheels for winter tires, those Model 3 rims are HEAVY - because the whole car is heavy. I suggest a car about the size of my 1990 Honda Civic hatchback, with say, 200 miles of range - less pep if that makes for a smaller, lighter, less power-demanding motor. But still with all the perks of Tesla, FSD and Autopilot. etc. I can't imagine a more apt application of FSD than driving congested streets at low speeds, or expressway commutes.

This is true from a customer perspective, however, from a business perspective, it would be a disaster at this point.
2 problems:
- Business: While people will buy them, they won't pay very much for them. Today, Tesla needs to make money in order to grow. Therefore, they need to focus on cars that can yield high margins. Perhaps, in the future, given all of the cost optimization Tesla has been investing in, they will be able to go to low-margin vehicles like your basic econobox hatchback.
- Battery costs: Smaller batteries get power-cycled more and, hence, degrade faster and need to be replaced more often. Essentially, there is a certain amount of KWhr that can pass through a cell in its life. To drive a certain number of miles, you'll need so many lifetime KWhr. Whether you carry them all from the beginning or keep replacing the pack, in the end, you'll be buying about the same number of batteries so you might as well buy them all up front and have the ability to drive long distances on those rare occasions that you need/want to.
New battery chemistries such as LiFe may get past this cycle life limitation and, as we see, Tesla, always thinking about the long game, is already working through this technology.
Maybe the goal of a small, economy hatch will be here at some time (probably well after the high-margin pickup and Roadster).

 

[MD-2000]

Battery costs: Smaller batteries get power-cycled more and, hence, degrade faster and need to be replaced more often.

True. The hope would be that a smaller car uses less electricity per km, so the total charge cycles per thousand km (or whatever metric), hence battery life, would be similar. The point too being that a smaller battery would be less weight and so help with the
less electricity per mile" issue; since the main determinant of vehicle weight is amount of battery. Plus, would an urban runabout type of second vehicle be less likely to include those long road trips that add to lifetime total milage?

Yes, the demand and profit margins are better for the more expensive larger vehicles. Plus, as the years go by, battery tech will (we assume) continue to improve. But Tesla must avoid the trap the Detroit Dinosaurs have fallen into, where they conceded the smaller car market to Japan et al, then the medium market, and now some are contemplating getting out of the auto market altogether to concentrate on the more lucrative truck market. But you can already buy a Toyota Tundra if that is your inclination....

There will always be a market for a cheaper car. Tesla has a strong advantage in any market, since it avoids many of the costs associated with letting others be dealers and resell their cars. Plus, it plans for cars that will not need a lot of service to keep a dealer network happy. There are two new factories - Berlin and Texas - poised to come online soon. Plus Semi's. Then what? It's too soon to relax.

Lewis Carrol in *Alice Through the Looking Glass* describes the Red Queen's Race - "I'm running as fast as I can, just to stay in the same place." This is how business competition is today, and Tesla is currently (sorry!) at the top. They have nowhere to go but down if they slack off in any direction.

 

[Earl]

a smaller car uses less electricity per km

This is true, but it is mostly because the smaller car has a smaller frontal cross-sectional area, hence less drag. For city cars, of course, this doesn't really matter much so little advantage to micro cars.
disclaimer: I'm probably unfairly biased here. I'm a tall guy so, of course, I hate micro cars because they are so bad for my skeletal health and well being. This has driven my passion for EVs so where I don't have to suffer to use less energy.

a smaller battery would be less weight and so help with the
less electricity per mile

With an electric car, less weight doesn't make as much difference as it does with ICE. Regenerative braking recovers more energy in a heavier car, offsetting the greater weight a bit (the recovery efficiency could be improved). Keep in mind also that smaller batteries can't accept as much power as larger ones, thus there is actually efficiency advantage to larger batteries. I'm not sure exactly how the tradeoff between added mass and increased regenerative efficiency of larger batteries sorts itself out though.
However, the need for an ICE vehicle to have a large, less efficient motor in order to have tolerable acceleration doesn't happen with an EV. The heavier the car, the larger the ICE must be. This forms a vicious cycle. On the other hand, however: A larger electric motor is somewhat more efficient, even at slow speeds and definitely during acceleration, than a smaller one.

Remember the original formula that enabled Tesla:
The expected cycle life for a cheap 18650 laptop computer battery was 500 full cycles.
The goal was a car with a battery that would last for 100,000 miles (sort of a benchmark expectation)
100,000 miles/500 cycles = 200 miles/cycle (ie 200 miles per charge)
This required that any car (econobox, truck, supercar, etc.) using these batteries must have 200 mile range in order to be viable.
Luckily, however, with enough batteries for 200 miles per charge, that battery could produce a lot of torque. This allowed it to be competitive against supercars that could be sold for a lot of money - enough to overcome the financial barriers to entry required get a company started. That (in addition to a passion for quick cars among Tesla's founders) drove Tesla's genesis.

How happy will people be when their micro car battery only gets 500 cycles X 50 miles/cycle = 25,000 miles before it needs a new battery or the original battery degrades to only allow 30 miles on a charge?
Luckily, batteries have gotten better through new designs and good thermal management, however, this fundamental relationship still exists even if the formula has gotten more favorable.

There will always be a market for a cheaper car.

This is definitely true. Too bad it so-often comes because those who make the car earn less than those who buy them. Hopefully, Tesla's obsession with efficiency and cost cutting will, eventually, enable them to make cheap cars without doing it at the expense of desperate, poorly compensated people in far-away lands.