TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Tesla Confirms 325.000 reservations by now !

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by vortexz, Apr 7, 2016.

  1. vortexz

    vortexz Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2015
    Messages:
    273
    Location:
    Romania
    The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream

    I like this last part: We would write more, but we need to get back to increasing our Model 3 production plans!

    Go go go increase production plans so we can all get our hands on the model 3 !
     
    • Like x 3
    • Love x 1
  2. Lawtq

    Lawtq Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2016
    Messages:
    92
    Location:
    London
    Double edged sword. Glad and at the same time worried about possible looooong delays
     
  3. Scott Franco

    Scott Franco Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2016
    Messages:
    18
    Location:
    San Jose
  4. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2014
    Messages:
    1,463
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    It's interesting, exciting and nothing but positive. But I'm betting on a less than 50% conversion of reservations to orders. They should be a little bit careful about overdoing it.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2016
    Messages:
    536
    Location:
    Newport, RI
    If it is only 50% conversion that is still impressive. That said, anyone who cancels their reservation before part 2 would be foolish, IMO. And if part 2 lives up to the hype, I think 50% would be a low guess. :)
     
    • Like x 1
  6. Lawtq

    Lawtq Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2016
    Messages:
    92
    Location:
    London
    50% its way too high a number. Of course some will drop out but not a half! But even if you're correct that's still an impressive amount. If they can get production right then tesla will have started the true death of ICE cars

    Can't believe this could happen in my lifetime
     
    • Like x 4
  7. vortexz

    vortexz Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2015
    Messages:
    273
    Location:
    Romania
    all those who made the reservation made it for a reason, THEY WANT THE CAR! the bail out will be less than 15 %, and will only happen in extreme reasons
     
    • Like x 2
    • Dislike x 1
  8. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2014
    Messages:
    1,463
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    I agree that this week has probably precipitated the end of the ICE vehicle - if for no other reason than that the rest of the ICE builders have been watching this circus, probably with mouths hanging agape in disbelief. Tesla will almost certainly hit a half a billion dollars in deposits before the year is out. I guarantee you that the Blackberry/iPhone analogy is front and center of a lot of boardroom discussions right now.

    In many way, it doesn't even matter if Tesla succeeds in getting this car out. You do not want to be a top exec at an auto-builder right now, explaining to the share-holders that you think that EVs are a flash in the pan. You would be crucified. The automakers have no choice but to get on with the show. EVs are going to become mainstream. The horses are out of the barn, running wild, and they're not going to go back in.
     
    • Like x 6
    • Love x 2
    • Funny x 1
  9. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2014
    Messages:
    1,463
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    No... $1000 is a small refundable deposit. There are a lot of people who want the car now, but circumstances will prevent them from taking delivery. Others will get frustrated at the wait and bail. And a certain % of the reservations are going to be MS owners and other supporters who have placed multiple reservations just to support the company and the vision. Heck, in 4 years, statistically 6-7% of the people who placed reservations will be dead! :)

    Anyway... not trying to take away from what's happened.. I'm just trying to be realistic.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Dislike x 1
    • Funny x 1
  10. pmich80

    pmich80 Between U and me I'm giddy waitin' for the Model ≡

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    164
    Location:
    Toronto
    As someone with chronic injuries and pains i joked with my coworkers that i'd probably be dead by the time the car comes out. LOL.
     
    • Dislike x 1
    • Funny x 1
  11. SΞXY P100D

    SΞXY P100D Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2015
    Messages:
    285
    Location:
    Jersey
    Uhh... I'm willing to buy that silver prototype. I don't need to wait another 2 years! :p
     
  12. vjason

    vjason Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2015
    Messages:
    119
    Location:
    Raleigh, NC
    The market could punish their stock big time if they cant commit to a delivery schedule and maintain it, regardless of how many they actually produce the first few quarters.

    I'm not saying this is fair, just that I work for a public company and I see what happens when we grow 3% instead of 5%, or heaven forbid a competitor has a bed quarter. We get punished in both cases, although it usually blows over in a few weeks.

    My opinion: Better to announce a decent delivery schedule you can meet (or even better, beat) than go into production greatly underestimating what can go wrong (I'm not saying they would do this by the way, just rambling).

    Hopefully we will hear next summer that employees are getting their cars to do the early live QA work (cars and factory itself), and that when fall rolls around they can start producing customer cars.

     
  13. malcolm

    malcolm Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2006
    Messages:
    2,143
    "We're going to need a bigger boat...."
     
  14. doublejj

    doublejj Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2015
    Messages:
    148
    Location:
    Sacramento ca
    Stock Market angst is another reason Tesla should stop posting backlog totals. It can only hurt at this point...
     
  15. omarsultan

    omarsultan Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2013
    Messages:
    1,496
    Location:
    Northern California
    Per Elon's earlier comment, I think this will be the last update we see for a while...maybe when/if they cross 500K
     
    • Like x 1
  16. voip-ninja

    voip-ninja Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2012
    Messages:
    216
    No, a lot of us made the deposit because we think we want the car. If it turns out that to get the options I want the car costs $65,000 and I'm able to test drive the car and am not suitably impressed then I don't want the car.

    Basically I paid $1,000 to hold my spot in line for eventual delivery of a car I may or may not want. I did it because if the car comes out and I do want it, I don't want to wait an extra 2+ years to get it from when production starts.

    Some of us are interested in this car simply as a comparison point with other cars that we are interested in. For me, it's going to be in contention with the new S4, the upcoming G20 BMW 3 series model which will be new in late 2018. I understand that some of you who pre-ordered are on a religious crusade to do away with ICE vehicles but many of us who made deposits are not.

    I also doubt I'm the only one who thinks this way.
     
    • Like x 4
    • Dislike x 1
  17. doublejj

    doublejj Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2015
    Messages:
    148
    Location:
    Sacramento ca
    I think the $1000 deposit made most people more than Looky-Lou's. They have ponied up cash money to stand at this table, & most will want to play it thru.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Dislike x 1
  18. NC-3

    NC-3 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2016
    Messages:
    21
    Location:
    Raleigh, NC
    Speaking of the stock market... The so called experts are bashing the stock today because they had unrealistic expectations for pre-order numbers that Tesla would announce today. (Another reason to stop with the numbers until it is time to configure/order.)

    "With nearly 200,000 orders as of Friday (April 1), CEO Elon Musk noted that Tesla was seeing an average selling price of roughly $42,000, which, against the latest stated total, implies future revenue of $11.6 billion. Based on average demand run rates we've been seeing, we'd expect a disclosure of roughly 350,000 to 400,000 reservations potentially by Wednesday for the first full week of reservations. This would be in line with our estimates of roughly 247,000 cumulative deliveries for 2018–2020 if you assume a two-thirds conversion ratio for reservations to actual orders."
     
    • Like x 1
  19. viperboy

    viperboy Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2012
    Messages:
    121
    Location:
    United States

    I'm right there with you mentally, but did not put down a deposit. I'll be looking at the A6, Acura TLX, and plug in 5 series. I WANT a Tesla, but was unwilling to put down the money without more knowledge of the final product (options available, final cost, largest range, etc.). My thought process is that if a fully loaded 3 is 70k+, I'm going with an S, maybe a year old or inventory car. I'm hoping I don't eat my words in 2 years and need to wait for 12+ months, but I assume with Res dropouts, and me looking at a nearly fully loaded model, I'll be in the top 50k in line.
     
    • Dislike x 1
  20. ankitmishra

    ankitmishra Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2015
    Messages:
    337
    Location:
    India
    "Increasing our Model 3 production plans". Hmm, shouldn't it be "planning to increase Model 3 production"?
     

Share This Page