Tesla Confirms 325.000 reservations by now !

[omarsultan]

This just tweeted by Elon:

Over 325k cars or ~$14B in preorders in first week. Only 5% ordered max of two, suggesting low levels of speculation.

 

[Boourns]

Depending on how many "over" 325k there were, that implies an average cost of $43k rather than $42k.

 

[cgiGuy]

Anyone know what he means by "low levels of speculation"?

 

[Boourns]

Anyone know what he means by "low levels of speculation"?

I took it to mean people who reserved the max number to flip the cars for profit.

 

[Bimbels]

I took it to mean people who reserved the max number to flip the cars for profit.

Yes, that's what he means.

 

[voip-ninja]

I'm right there with you mentally, but did not put down a deposit. I'll be looking at the A6, Acura TLX, and plug in 5 series. I WANT a Tesla, but was unwilling to put down the money without more knowledge of the final product (options available, final cost, largest range, etc.). My thought process is that if a fully loaded 3 is 70k+, I'm going with an S, maybe a year old or inventory car. I'm hoping I don't eat my words in 2 years and need to wait for 12+ months, but I assume with Res dropouts, and me looking at a nearly fully loaded model, I'll be in the top 50k in line.

If you are interested then you should put down a deposit or you could be waiting forever. Obviously $1K is different amount of scratch to different people, but it was not any kind of financial hardship for me to tie $1K up just to hold my place in line for a car I may or may not purchase. Certainly I'd rather tie $1K up than find out I want the Model 3 and now have to wait until 2020 to get it because I didn't order until they had 500K pre-orders to work through.

If the car is a homerun and production is slow then some people will simply take delivery of their 2nd production slot and then flip it at a $10,000 profit to someone who doesn't want to wait. I actually expect a lot of that IF the car is absolutely amazing and everyone wants it like the original iPhone.

 

[vortexz]

They better speed up finishing the Gigafactory, and equip the Freemont Factory to be able to produce 500k cars/year

 

[PTADO]

Can we somehow crowd-fund the Gigafactory? Maybe offer in our down payment amounts to be used as capital for the build to go faster then apply our pledge amount to the vehicle when it's ready to buy? It sounds ridiculous, I know, but I'd seriously consider it if there was a way to actually get things moving faster.

 

[doublejj]

Maybe offer a priority allocation for a $5000 non-refundable deposit to get you into the first production runs would help.

 

[brucet999]

Heck, in 4 years, statistically 6-7% of the people who placed reservations will be dead! .

Check out the reservation policy. Those reservations might be transferred to the heirs.

 

[n00bie]

My thought process is that if a fully loaded 3 is 70k+, I'm going with an S, maybe a year old or inventory car. .

the man himself says average selling price of the model 3 is roughly $42,000. We know the base price is 35K (with autopilot hardware and superchargers included), and if 42K is somewhere in the middle, so a rough 50k - 55k seems more realistic for a fully loaded Model 3. That's already 20K extra for all options.

 

[amb3rgris]

the man himself says average selling price of the model 3 is roughly $42,000. We know the base price is 35K (with autopilot hardware and superchargers included), and if 42K is somewhere in the middle, so a rough 50k - 55k seems more realistic for a fully loaded Model 3. That's already 20K extra for all options.

I don't think this takes into account what I expect will be the distribution curve for eventual selling prices. I am guessing that Elon's "average" assumes much greater numbers of lower priced models being sold, which would greatly drive down the average.

Given historical Tesla and entry luxury car pricing, I really think a "max'ed" out M3 will exceed 55k by quite a bit. I'm guessing closer to the $70-80k range (depending on if there's a Ludicrous option offered for the 3).

 

[Boourns]

the man himself says average selling price of the model 3 is roughly $42,000. We know the base price is 35K (with autopilot hardware and superchargers included), and if 42K is somewhere in the middle, so a rough 50k - 55k seems more realistic for a fully loaded Model 3. That's already 20K extra for all options.

I think you can more than double the price of a base Model S, so I would not be surprised if a 3 with all the boxes checked creeped up near or past $70,000. Especially if the base price of the S goes up, preventing much overlap.

 

[SCW-Greg]

I agree that this week has probably precipitated the end of the ICE vehicle - if for no other reason than that the rest of the ICE builders have been watching this circus, probably with mouths hanging agape in disbelief. Tesla will almost certainly hit a half a billion dollars in deposits before the year is out. I guarantee you that the Blackberry/iPhone analogy is front and center of a lot of boardroom discussions right now.

In many way, it doesn't even matter if Tesla succeeds in getting this car out. You do not want to be a top exec at an auto-builder right now, explaining to the share-holders that you think that EVs are a flash in the pan. You would be crucified. The automakers have no choice but to get on with the show. EVs are going to become mainstream. The horses are out of the barn, running wild, and they're not going to go back in.

You mean this thread...
"Daimler shareholders worried over Tesla and electric carmakers"

 

[1000Down]

It's interesting, exciting and nothing but positive. But I'm betting on a less than 50% conversion of reservations to orders. They should be a little bit careful about overdoing it.

I think the first 115K are pretty rock solid. These are people who have wanted a Tesla for a long time.

For the 215k that came after, it depends on Tesla. If they deliver on time, in numbers and close to the $35K price point, they will convert 75%. So we are talking about 275K.

If Tesla experiences delays and has to nickel and time the buyer to get the Model 3 to a profitable price point, then conversion drops fast (40-50% after first 115K).

I think we get something close to the first scenario.

 

[777dgt]

the man himself says average selling price of the model 3 is roughly $42,000. We know the base price is 35K (with autopilot hardware and superchargers included), and if 42K is somewhere in the middle, so a rough 50k - 55k seems more realistic for a fully loaded Model 3. That's already 20K extra for all options.

The advert for Model 3 says autopilot and supercharger hardware included. NOT that it is enabled. Remember, they are a software/tech company.

 

[rolosrevenge]

Can we somehow crowd-fund the Gigafactory? Maybe offer in our down payment amounts to be used as capital for the build to go faster then apply our pledge amount to the vehicle when it's ready to buy? It sounds ridiculous, I know, but I'd seriously consider it if there was a way to actually get things moving faster.

We just did, it's called a $1000 refundable deposit.

 

[Blueeyedme]

Anyone know for how long current owners get priority? A current owner that makes a reservation a month from now, or six months from now - will they still get priority?

 

[deonb]

Can we somehow crowd-fund the Gigafactory? Maybe offer in our down payment amounts to be used as capital for the build to go faster then apply our pledge amount to the vehicle when it's ready to buy? It sounds ridiculous, I know, but I'd seriously consider it if there was a way to actually get things moving faster.

Not sure if it will help at this point.

You can't make a baby in 1 month by using 9 women.

 

[NoPetrolDream]

What that number of reservations tells me, that even if it is in the end chopped in half, as another poster above predicted, there are as of this moment at least 325,000 people who have at least minimally considered EVs as a legitimate transportation choice for themselves.

If Model 3 turns out to be as amazing in day to day ownership as its wow factor for drawing people to part with cash even before it was revealed, it's a knock it out of the park home run and the case for EVs not being a viable alternative to ICE is DONE. The Model S already demonstrated this on a smaller scale; now we have thousands of people who wish to commit time, money, and passion to the EV transition.

Well done, Elon and Tesla team!