Tesla DC charging network

[Norbert]

If Tesla discovers after its initial foray into its proprietary fast charging network that sites won't host their Superchargers because the chargers cater to a much smaller market, then Tesla may either have to change its approach or offer a combination charger with more than one type of DC connector.

I don't see this as a big problem. There will be a balance of (different) market(s) and chargers. I think Tesla will have a nice market rather quickly, especially among those who need or want to use their EV to make longer trips. The fact that longer range EVs need chargers only at larger distances also means that those EVs will concentrate on those fewer chargers initially (until more will be necessary and/or possible). It will also be easier to find sites at larger distances, since that corresponds better to how sites are distributed in this ICE-based world.

 

[Larry Chanin]

I don't see this as a big problem. There will be a balance of (different) market(s) and chargers. I think Tesla will have a nice market rather quickly, especially among those who need or want to use their EV to make longer trips. The fact that longer range EVs need chargers only at larger distances also means that those EVs will concentrate on those fewer chargers initially (until more will be necessary and/or possible). It will also be easier to find sites at larger distances, since that corresponds better to how sites are distributed in this ICE-based world.

Hi Norbert,

I sincerely hope you are right.

Whether Tesla will have a nice market I suppose depends on how much Tesla intends to subsidize their Superchargers. However, if in the long haul they expect the site proprietor to eventually fund most of the costs of the installation then it will be rough going for Tesla installations. Looking at the end of 2013 estimates Tesla should be producing 20,000 Model Ss to 200,000 Leafs. At $50,000 for the Tesla Supercharger versus ~$10,000+ for the Nissan CHAdeMO its hard to be optimistic that site proprietors will be choosing the significantly more expensive Tesla proprietary chargers. Even if the costs were the same for the competing chargers, suitable parking spaces are limited and the site manager its not going to want to dedicate that space for a charger that only accommodates 1/10th of the potential market. If we throw in the Mitsubishi's the market becomes ever increasingly CHAdeMO dominant.

Larry

 

[Norbert]

I sincerely hope you are right.

So do I. It's not like I'd think I already know for sure.

Whether Tesla will have a nice market I suppose depends on how much Tesla intends to subsidize their Superchargers. However, if in the long haul they expect the site proprietor to eventually fund most of the costs of the installation then it will be rough going for Tesla installations. Looking at the end of 2013 estimates Tesla should be producing 20,000 Model Ss to 200,000 Leafs. At $50,000 for the Tesla Supercharger versus ~$10,000+ for the Nissan CHAdeMO its hard to be optimistic that site proprietors will be choosing the significantly more expensive Tesla proprietary chargers. Even if the costs were the same for the competing chargers, suitable parking spaces are limited and the site manager its not going to want to dedicate that space for a charger that only accommodates 1/20th of the potential market. If we throw in the Mitsubishi's the market becomes ever increasingly CHAdeMO dominant.

I don't yet believe the $50k number. Too often, articles, especially from the financial community, have reported incorrectly. Since the number given by Elon Musk earlier in 2011 was $25k, and appeared to be for an installation rather than just the hardware, I'd assume that even if $50k is correct, it is more likely to include installation.

Also my impression is that at least initially, Tesla is expecting to pay for the installation as well, and many sites close to highways do have plenty of parking spots, Harris ranch being one example. So there is little reason for them to say no. We'll know more when Tesla makes its Supercharger announcement in Jan/Feb, where they apparently also will announce a roll-out schedule.

I think Nissan will have a much bigger problem since they will need to install a much larger number of chargers, and at smaller distances, so in more unlikely places. Also it isn't clear whether Nissan is prepared to pay for the installation, and so far the companies they cooperated with have not been quick, to say the least. Except in Japan and in the UK's dealer network, not much has happened yet even though they are selling Leafs with CHAdeMO ports for almost a year already. So I don't think Tesla should make its strategy dependent on Nissan, or anyone else like GM or so (BMW?). None of these companies have proven to be reliable regarding fast-charging, and an even bigger question would be whether established companies (and their associated standard bodies) would be willing not only to cooperate with a start-up like Tesla, but also to sufficiently accommodate the needs of a pioneering and innovative small company. Tesla would be an uneven partner without enough power to protect their interests. In spite of announcements about future low-cost chargers, Nissan so far seems to have trouble supporting its own fast-charging strategy.

On the larger picture, I think companies have different expectations of what will work in the future, and they will need to find out in practice what works well and what doesn't so well. Perhaps when the time comes for 150+ kW (which may sound like a lot right now, but so did 90 kW a while ago), there will be enough experience for a basis to agree on a single worldwide standard.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Even if the costs were the same for the competing chargers, suitable parking spaces are limited and the site manager its not going to want to dedicate that space for a charger that only accommodates 1/10th of the potential market.

Also my impression is that at least initially, Tesla is expecting to pay for the installation as well, and many sites close to highways do have plenty of parking spots, Harris ranch being one example. So there is little reason for them to say no. We'll know more when Tesla makes its Supercharger announcement in Jan/Feb, where they apparently also will announce a roll-out schedule.

Hi Norbert,

What I meant by "suitable parking spaces" had more to do with locations in close proximity to the electric service supply rather than having plenty of parking spots. The site manager really doesn't want to build a 480 volt distribution system in the parking lot, so he/she will want to limit the number of spaces devoted to fast charging regardless of how large their parking lot is. With limited numbers of prime parking spots the site manager will want to install a charger type compatible with the largest number of EVs on the road to provide the biggest return on investment.

I agree it will be very instructive when Tesla announces their roll-out schedule. When that happens I fully expect the initial roll-out of chargers to be 90 kW chargers without accommodating any other DC fast charging type.

Larry

 

[Norbert]

What I meant by "suitable parking spaces" had more to do with locations in close proximity to the electric service supply rather than having plenty of parking spots. The site manager really doesn't want to build a 480 volt distribution system in the parking lot, so he/she will want to limit the number of spaces devoted to fast charging regardless of how large their parking lot is. With limited numbers of prime parking spots the site manager will want to install a charger type compatible with the largest number of EVs on the road to provide the biggest return on investment.

Interesting point, although I haven't heard yet that this might be a limiting factor, it seems it would just slightly increase the installation cost for running the cable a few additional feet. However, I could imagine that there will be sites where additional power consumption might require larger costs above some threshold. I think the resolution, whenever that is the case, will be to have the chargers at different sites, not all in the same place.

Regarding the return on investment, I'm not sure that Tesla chargers will be used less than others, since fewer will be needed. Perhaps that will matter in the first year, but at that point in time there will be few chargers altogether and so little competition for spaces, if there ever will be. Later on, a 90 kW spot can sell more electricity than a 50 kW spot. And since a car with 90 kW charging either needs to make fewer stops, or requires a shorter charge time, it is more likely to spend money at that site, during that time. So I don't see why a Tesla charger should be less welcome than any other. Besides, it will look better.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Regarding the return on investment, I'm not sure that Tesla chargers will be used less than others, since fewer will be needed. Perhaps that will matter in the first year, but at that point in time there will be few chargers altogether and so little competition for spaces, if there ever will be. Later on, a 90 kW spot can sell more electricity than a 50 kW spot. And since a car with 90 kW charging either needs to make fewer stops, or requires a shorter charge time, it is more likely to spend money at that site, during that time. So I don't see why a Tesla charger should be less welcome than any other. Besides, it will look better.

Hi Norbert,

I wasn't thinking of return on investment in terms of charger revenue. I was thinking that the availability of a compatible charger would attract business to the site as in the case of a decent restaurant. If there is an order of magnitude more CHAdeMO compatible EVs on the road than Teslas Model Ss, a restaurant would want to provide that type charger even if charging was free.

Larry

 

[Norbert]

Hi Norbert,

I wasn't thinking of return on investment in terms of charger revenue. I was thinking that the availability of a compatible charger would attract business to the site as in the case of a decent restaurant. If there is an order of magnitude more CHAdeMO compatible EVs on the road than Teslas Model Ss, a restaurant would want to provide that type charger even if charging was free.

Larry

Yes, in the beginning, and with already many Leafs driving around, I agree this will be true wherever a specific restaurant would have to choose either one or the other. Later-on, there will have to be more 50 kW chargers for Leafs/etc, so demand and supply will balance things out. (Then, with Bluestar, the situation may change again.) There are many times as many restaurants, and other potential sites, as chargers are needed for long range EVs.

It seems your thoughts are mostly based on ideas surrounding relatively cheap Level 2 chargers (3.3 - 6.6 kW). The Level 2 charger infrastructure concept imagines them to be all over the place at each commercial site, with each commercial site financing things from the marketing budget or so. (And the idea is a bit that EVs hop from charger to charger wherever they park, in order to get through the day). Whereas more expensive 90 kW chargers often will be (or could be, as one possibility) close to larger areas with multiple restaurants/coffee shops/shops etc, which will also have larger parking lots and plenty of potential power available. And they will be financed on a larger scope. In the beginning, at least, to a larger part or even completely by the car manufacturers (as appears to be Tesla's concept), where the cost and benefit is calculated per-car rather than per-charge. Perhaps later, when there are many EVs, per-charge concepts will also work for DC chargers, without risky up-front investments.

So I think what you say is correct, just that there will be many ways to address those various factors.

 

[GSP]

It will be indeed be interesting to see what Tesla's plan to install "SuperChargers" will be. I am concerned that it will be the plan of just one corporation, instead of a marketplace. I certainly hope there will be SuperChargers available on all of the interstates, in the 200-250 mile range from my hometown.

It will also be interesting to see what companies will design, build, and sell SuperChargers. Just Columb? Or, maybe Tesla in-house? There are multiple companies building their own ChadeMo designs here in North America. Also multiple companies in Japan, and multiple European companies as well. This drives innovation, cost reduction, and provides choices for buyers. This principle works for any standard, not just ChadeMo, but not for propritary solutions.

GSP

 

[Doug_G]

I'm wondering how easily the full power would be available. In our local industrial park, standard power is 600V 200A 3-phase. That's about 200 kW. So a single supercharger would consume half of the total power available at that location. If you want more power you'd have to pay the utility tens of thousands to install a bigger transformer.

 

[Dave EV]

I'm wondering how easily the full power would be available. In our local industrial park, standard power is 600V 200A 3-phase. That's about 200 kW. So a single supercharger would consume half of the total power available at that location. If you want more power you'd have to pay the utility tens of thousands to install a bigger transformer.

Even at just 90 kW utility demand charges are going to be around $2000 / month in addition to energy charges (at least in California and New York - haven't checked other utilities to see what demand charges are).

 

[Larry Chanin]

Yes, in the beginning, and with already many Leafs driving around, I agree this will be true wherever a specific restaurant would have to choose either one or the other. Later-on, there will have to be more 50 kW chargers for Leafs/etc, so demand and supply will balance things out. (Then, with Bluestar, the situation may change again.) There are many times as many restaurants, and other potential sites, as chargers are needed for long range EVs.

It seems your thoughts are mostly based on ideas surrounding relatively cheap Level 2 chargers (3.3 - 6.6 kW). The Level 2 charger infrastructure concept imagines them to be all over the place at each commercial site, with each commercial site financing things from the marketing budget or so. (And the idea is a bit that EVs hop from charger to charger wherever they park, in order to get through the day). Whereas more expensive 90 kW chargers often will be (or could be, as one possibility) close to larger areas with multiple restaurants/coffee shops/shops etc, which will also have larger parking lots and plenty of potential power available. And they will be financed on a larger scope. In the beginning, at least, to a larger part or even completely by the car manufacturers (as appears to be Tesla's concept), where the cost and benefit is calculated per-car rather than per-charge. Perhaps later, when there are many EVs, per-charge concepts will also work for DC chargers, without risky up-front investments.

So I think what you say is correct, just that there will be many ways to address those various factors.

Hi Norbert,

No, I haven't even mentioned Level 2 chargers. My point is simple, Leaf has first mover advantage, it has volume and it has a low cost DC fast charger solution that is not proprietary. They will soon be joined by Mitsubishi using that same charger standard also in volume.

Proprietors in key strategic locations, not just roadside restaurants, will not be installing a niche fast charger if it is not subsidized. They might not even see the feasibility of maintaining them even if Tesla agreed initially to fund the installation. These sites will be going with the mainstream, even if that design is not as elegant or high performance as the Tesla solution.

It will be several years before Tesla will be in a position to produce a high volume vehicle. By that time the fast charger marketplace standard may be a done deal. Perhaps if Tesla can convince Toyota to use the Tesla proprietary fast charging approach with its RAV4 EVs they might be able to hold their own in the early years, until Bluestar is released.

Larry

 

[Norbert]

I'm wondering how easily the full power would be available. In our local industrial park, standard power is 600V 200A 3-phase. That's about 200 kW. So a single supercharger would consume half of the total power available at that location. If you want more power you'd have to pay the utility tens of thousands to install a bigger transformer.

So just another standard outlet. You just turn the switch on.

You certainly don't have to help them carry the transformer. It's their business.

 

[GSP]

A National Imperative -- Building an Interstate Network of Toilets - Forbes

Larry, thanks for posting this.

Glad to see a Roadster owner get published in Forbes. The Roadster is such a transformational car. It has now exposed a good number of influential people to the benefits and joy of EVs.

This is yet another reason to start with a high-end car, beyond providing a business case that works. The high-end car is also aspirational, unlike another "penalty car," and inspires the next generation to covet EVs.

GSP

 

[Doug_G]

So just another standard outlet. You just turn the switch on.

You certainly don't have to help them carry the transformer. It's their business.

Uh, no, not here. If they have to upgrade their equipment because of you, you pay for it.

 

[Doug_G]

Even at just 90 kW utility demand charges are going to be around $2000 / month in addition to energy charges (at least in California and New York - haven't checked other utilities to see what demand charges are).

Utility demand charges? What's that?

 

[GSP]

Utility demand charges? What's that?

Here is the first thing google found. Looks like a good explanation.

http://www.northwesternenergy.com/documents/E+Programs/E+demandcharges.pdf

GSP

 

[Doug_G]

Here is the first thing google found. Looks like a good explanation.

http://www.northwesternenergy.com/documents/E+Programs/E+demandcharges.pdf
GSP

Hmmm... I don't think they have that kind of rate here. I know they do have special rates for companies that consume huge amounts of power.

 

[Dave EV]

Hmmm... I don't think they have that kind of rate here. I know they do have special rates for companies that consume huge amounts of power.

I haven't come across any utility which does not have demand charges for medium to large businesses. What utility co is up there?

Edit: Here's Hydro Ottawa's rate sheet: Rates & Conditions - Hydro Ottawa

Demand charges for customers 50kW+ appears to be about $7 / kW - so a 90kW SuperCharger will cost you $630/mo + wholesale market rates per kWh (plus some other charges).

50 kW demand and less and you pay a flat ~$0.10 / kWh which includes energy and demand charges.

 

[Norbert]

Hi Norbert,

No, I haven't even mentioned Level 2 chargers. My point is simple, Leaf has first mover advantage, it has volume and it has a low cost DC fast charger solution that is not proprietary. They will soon be joined by Mitsubishi using that same charger standard also in volume.

Proprietors in key strategic locations, not just roadside restaurants, will not be installing a niche fast charger if it is not subsidized. They might not even see the feasibility of maintaining them even if Tesla agreed initially to fund the installation. These sites will be going with the mainstream, even if that design is not as elegant or high performance as the Tesla solution.

It will be several years before Tesla will be in a position to produce a high volume vehicle. By that time the fast charger marketplace standard may be a done deal. Perhaps if Tesla can convince Toyota to use the Tesla proprietary fast charging approach with its RAV4 EVs they might be able to hold their own in the early years, until Bluestar is released.

Larry

Nissan maybe the first mover, but it hasn't moved yet. I am sure more than enough sites will be happy with Tesla's solution, and not regret their decision. In any case, it is not the restaurants or utilities job to choose the future of electric cars, or our job to make those decisions from what we think would be the restaurant's point of view. I prefer Tesla's choices, they appear reasonable, and I am confident Tesla will make it happen. My only concern is that Tesla's infrastructure plans aren't too minimalistic in the first place, we'll see in the Jan/Feb announcement. It'll be ok if they start with building a bare bones network, but they'll need to start expanding soon afterwards, along with actual Model S sales. You said earlier the superior design/technology doesn't always win. To me this seems needlessly pessimistic. The growing number of Model S reservations speaks for itself, and all indications are that Bluestar will follow seemlessly.

 

[Doug_G]

I haven't come across any utility which does not have demand charges for medium to large businesses. What utility co is up there?

Edit: Here's Hydro Ottawa's rate sheet: Rates & Conditions - Hydro Ottawa

Demand charges for customers 50kW+ appears to be about $7 / kW - so a 90kW SuperCharger will cost you $630/mo + wholesale market rates per kWh (plus some other charges).

50 kW demand and less and you pay a flat ~$0.10 / kWh which includes energy and demand charges.

Ah, okay, I should have been able to find that myself! :redface: