Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Blog Tesla Delivered 1,550 Model 3s in Q4

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Tesla delivered just 1,550 Model 3s in the fourth quarter, a major miss considering CEO Elon Musk said in July the company may hit 20,000 Model 3s per month in December.

Tesla announced the production and delivery numbers in a press release Wednesday.

In explaining the numbers, the company said:

During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3’s, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week. As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3’s since December 9th as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point. This is why we were not able to deliver many of these cars during the holiday season, just before the quarter ended. Model 3 deliveries to non-employee customers are now accelerating rapidly, and we’re confident our customers will love them.

Fourth quarter production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3.

Tesla delivered 29,870 vehicles in the fourth quarter – 15,200 were Model S, 13,120 were Model X, and 1,550 were Model 3. It was the company’s all-time best quarter for combined Model S and X deliveries, representing a 27% increase over Q4 2016, and a 9% increase over Q3 2017, the previous best quarter.

According to the release:

As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2.

We’re very grateful to everyone at Tesla who has poured their heart and soul into helping with the Model 3 ramp and creating the progress we are seeing. We’re also very appreciative of our Model 3 customers, who continue to stick by us while patiently waiting for their cars.

Tesla is expected to release its earnings report for the quarter and for 2017 in the coming weeks, which will offer a better picture the company’s goals for 2018.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This in no way shape or form helps the company in any way. They are way behind their original goals and are even 1 quarter behind their previous goal of hitting 5k model 3s per week. This will likely hurt the stock and make shareholders more nervous about their ability to mass produce the M3 and get through the ever growing backlog of 500k plus reservation holders. At this rate it will be years before they get through that backlog which does not bode well for the company.
 
They built way more than 1550, and stored excess in the huge parking lot at factory. 1550 is delivered number.

I strongly believe they did not want to hit 200K limit in Q4, or want buyers to keep ordering MS/MX instead of waiting a short time for M3 reservation build.
From the press release:

"In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2018."

"Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3"

They are now nearly 100% guaranteed to hit 200,000 in Q2 of this year. They'll now be around 180,000 at the end of Q1. The only thing that would push it any further out would be a huge production setback through July 1.
 
Tesla says Model 3 production rate at ‘over 1,000 per week’ and breaks quarterly delivery record with 29,870 vehicles
.
Tesla released their fourth quarter and full year 2017 delivery and production results today after market close. As expected, Tesla achieved record deliveries of 29,870 vehicles, but all eyes are on Model 3, which accounted for 1,550 units of the total. As for production, the company says that it achieved a production rate in the last few days of 2017 that translates to “over 1,000 Model 3’s per week.”

Tesla delivered 47,077 vehicles in the first half of 2017, 26,150 vehicles in Q3, and now this new record in Q4, Tesla has now delivered over 100,000 vehicles in 2017. In its third quarter shareholder letter, Tesla already announced that they expected “an all-time record for deliveries of Model S and Model X vehicles in Q4” and they delivered on the expectation.

They ended up delivering 15,200 Model S vehicles and 13,120 Model X vehicles. Additionally, 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter, according to the company. Here are Tesla quarterly global deliveries of all current vehicles in production since their launches:
tesla_deliveries_q4_2017.png
 
  • Informative
Reactions: RenMan68
Entirely possible to skew deliveries such that 200K domestic occurs day 1 of Q3. But let's say it doesn't. They've had long enough to forecast this that hopefully they can hit the domestic number on day 1 of whichever quarter. For then they get a FULL HALF YEAR* of cojones-out production and *every* domestic unit produced during that HALF YEAR qualifies for the federal tax credit. Before it gets halved and then ultimately halved again before being phased out completely.

Tangentially, one wonders if by then California in particular will implement a larger state-level incentive than the $2,500 rebate and the extra money if you domicile in the San Joaquin Valley.

* the rest of the current quarter in which unit 200K was delivered domestically and *all* of the following quarter. So that day 1 thing matters.

Perhaps front-loading international units for as much of Q2 as necessary in order to get to 200K domestic on day 1 of Q3 would be the optimal play. Then it's all out for the rest of the year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RenMan68
They've had long enough to forecast this that hopefully they can hit the domestic number on day 1 of whichever quarter. For then they get a FULL HALF YEAR* of cojones-out production and *every* domestic unit produced during that HALF YEAR qualifies for the federal tax credit.
I believe that is their plan and all of us 'enthusiasts' who are waiting for delivery should buckle our seat belts because it is going to be a bumpy ride for the next few months.
 
I believe that is their plan and all of us 'enthusiasts' who are waiting for delivery should buckle our seat belts because it is going to be a bumpy ride for the next few months.
Yep, that seems to be the pattern. Disappointment after disappointment after disappointment...
And then... WHAM... the car!
After that, all is well and the past is forgotten.;):)
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: T34ME
Or they could simply prioritize almost all of Q2 S & X and some of M3 to Europe and Canada.
They'll only be 20,000 away from 200k at the end of Q1. They'll likely sell another 15k Model S+X in Q2 in the US. That would mean they could only deliver 5,000 Model 3s in the US in the entire second quarter. That's not happening at 1000-2500 per week coming out of the factory.
 

Sort of, the original goal was earlier but it was also much lower volume. What got pulled in was the volume originally planned for 2020 being pulled to 2018.

Or said another way there was more than one goal for Model 3.

The first production car did slip as they spent more time and effort on Model X than they planned. But while the beginning of the snake didn't cross the line as quick it got fatter and the tail is going to cross the line well before 2020.

So when people say that model 3 is late, they are right. And when people say Model 3 got pulled up and so it is ahead of schedule, they are also right.
 
Sort of, the original goal was earlier but it was also much lower volume. What got pulled in was the volume originally planned for 2020 being pulled to 2018.

Or said another way there was more than one goal for Model 3.

The first production car did slip as they spent more time and effort on Model X than they planned. But while the beginning of the snake didn't cross the line as quick it got fatter and the tail is going to cross the line well before 2020.

So when people say that model 3 is late, they are right. And when people say Model 3 got pulled up and so it is ahead of schedule, they are also right.
All those articles, which date back to before they even announced it would be called the Model 3, said 2017 was when production would start.

If there was any speculation on 2016 being a possible date, it was probably from the Master Plan being published in 2006 and then talk of ten years a third generation car would come. 2017 was always the official start date though, from what I remember and can find.
 
All those articles, which date back to before they even announced it would be called the Model 3, said 2017 was when production would start.

If there was any speculation on 2016 being a possible date, it was probably from the Master Plan being published in 2006 and then talk of ten years a third generation car would come. 2017 was always the official start date though, from what I remember and can find.

You are correct, I wrote a huge reply assuming you meant something else but after rereading your post I don't think I disagree with it. I guess I was in violent agreement mode ;)
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: sitter_k
Here is a quick scrape from ir.tesla.com

Jan 15, 2014 Tesla Motors Corporate Presentation, page 24
D-segment sedan
Base price $30-35K
Tesla performance & range
Category-leading gross margin
Available in ≈3 years

which happened, more than 36 months later, but still in 2017 which is 3 years after 2014.


Nov 3, 2015 Tesla Third Quarter 2015 Shareholder Letter
Model 3 unveiling planned for late March 2016
(note it actually happened in Mar 2016 as planned)

Feb 10, 2016 Tesla Fourth Quarter 2015 Shareholder Letter
Model 3 unveiling is March 31st; on schedule for production & deliveries in late 2017
and deliveries happened in late 2017, maybe not as many as anyone wanted, but they did produce and deliver cars in the year 2017.

May 4, 2016 Q1'16 Update Letter
Volume Model 3 production and deliveries to start in late 2017

Advancing Build Plan
We are on track to achieve volume Model 3 production and deliveries in late 2017. Of course, in order to meet that timeframe, we will be holding both ourselves and our suppliers accountable to be ready for volume production in advance of that timing.

Additionally, given the demand for Model 3, we have decided to advance our 500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018, two years earlier than previously planned.

So while the car might have been planned to come out in 2017 for some time, the quantity changed.

Aug 3, 2016 Q2'16 Update Letter
Completed Model 3 design phase
...we remain focused on launching Model 3 next year as scheduled.

So end result, the overall introduction of the car wasn't behind schedule as planned at the beginning of 2014 and any big production ramp in 2018 is ahead of schedule as planned back in 2014.
 
Last edited:
All you "Tesla is way behind actually means they are way ahead" people are delusional. A few employees have cars. Anyone on the list will wait years. Last quarter targets were missed. Quarter before that? Missed. This quarter? Missed. But NEXT quarter will magically ramp up to full production. On what planet? Tesla can't manufacture enough batteries. Ask the Powerwall people who have been waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting. Those orders are backlogged too. I hope you all get your Model 3's. If you do, pray they have batteries. I hope I get my Powerwalls. But after more than a year, all I have are false promises. That's all Model 3 people have too. False promises. Forgive me if I view their promises for 2018 with more than mild skepticism. I'm too busy mocking their blatant incompetence. Their deceit.