Tesla dropping the 75X

[posity]

P90D vs 100D is a really small difference in range so I would be hard pressed to justify a large cost difference based on the minimal range difference. That sure seems like a good deal on a P90D to me.

There is no way to know what is around the corner. In my mind, there are at least 3 competing factors at Tesla:
1) How fast the battery technology is improving. Tesla has some really smart people in Sparks Nevada and hard to say what they are cooking up, what they've figured out to improve batteries (reduce size) and reduce costs.
2) How far the car design engineers are coming along on the new models such as the Model Y. I'm presuming the Model Y will cannibalize much of the Model X sales when the Model Y gets announced?
3) What the Tesla marketing people cook up to work around all these tough issues. Sometimes marketing 'gets it right', sometimes not. Not easy to predict the future and how most people think.

So I think most folks that buy a Tesla finally just figure out you have to make your decision based on what is available today - and forget about trying to second guess what is coming in the future. The products available today are mighty darn nice...

 

[rainforest]

The 60D hardware is identical to the 75D, same exact battery pack with same number of cells as the 75D. The software just basically prevents you from charging it up past about 84%, that's how they limit the range from 237miles(75D) to 200miles(60D). Except for the ability to use that tiny portion at the top of the battery range the car behaves exactly like a 75D. Realistically that portion of the battery is rarely used for most people anyway. You don't regularly charge to 100% when you're just driving around local, and supercharging between 85% and 100% is so slow that it's not worth your time to do it. The only time that extra little bit of battery helps is on the first leg of a long journey or on a day where you expect to be driving >200miles but <237miles and can avoid having to recharge altogether.

When Tesla was selling both the X60D and X75D the price delta for that miniscule battery benefit was $9k! That was an absurd price to pay for what you were getting. Now you can upgrade your 60D -> 75D for $4.5k and you also get a 1second reduction in 0-60 time. Some think it's worth it for that price, I personally don't.

This is a perfectly accurate description of the X60D. I've always been tempted to upgrade, but my car is leased so it doesn't make sense unless I know I'm gonna buy it out for sure. During my road trip to Calgary, not having the extra buffer made me nervous, though I still made it to each supercharger without issue. I think the extra range is more for psychological assurance rather than anything, but it's a hefty price to pay if it's just insurance against getting stranded.

 

[ecarfan]

A more extensive discussion as to possible reasons why Tesla is discontinuing the 75kWh S/X battery can be found here in the S forum
75 S and X discontinued

It’s likely not just about simplifying the product line, and in the opinion of many Tesla is not going to just offer one S/X battery size. There is probably a lot more to it than that; Tesla may be switching to 2170 cells for the S/X pack, which would allow for more pack capacity in the same physical size enclosure and also allow for higher charging rates when Supercharger V3 becomes available.

It seems unlikely Tesla will only offer a single S/X battery size, whether it is 100 or something greater that results from the switch to 2170 cells. If Tesla did that, the base price of the S/X would rise significantly and sales would suffer.

Elon tweeted yesterday confirmation that S/X pack sizes going forward would no longer be designated with numbers but going forward would be handled the same way the Model 3 portrays them, with “Long Range” being an option and no kWh numbers provided or shown as a badge on the car. That does not surprise me; it’s the right thing to do for many reasons. I expect that, like the 3, there will be a base S/X battery and a “Long Range” battery option, likely starting next Monday.

SPECULATION
It seems reasonable to assume that this change in battery designation will be done at the same time as a significant change to the battery packs themselves. We know the 75 pack is going away on Monday. We know that Tesla iterates and improves as rapidly as the technology allows it to. The 18650 is now an “old” cell type. The 2170 is Tesla’s “new” cell type. If production capacity is available, it seems inevitable that Tesla will switch to the 2170 for S/X packs, which will result in greater total pack capacity in the same volume (the entire pack architecture would need to be redesigned to accomate the slightly larger cells but since there is no more room in the vehicle for a bigger pack enclosure without a massive chassis redesign, I suspect Tesla has been able to accomplish that).

So my expectation is that on Monday, Tesla will announce new EPA numbers for the base S/X, from 259/237 to something like 300/272. That will put the base S/X well above the base Model 3 at 220 and better serve to differentiate the two model lines.

At the same time, Tesla will announce the EPA numbers for the optional “Long Range” S/X battery pack as something around 385/340, raising the bar for the competition and maintaining Tesla’s huge advantage over the various “Tesla killer” full size sedans and SUVs that other manufacturers have announced.
/SPECULATION

 

[Pilot Steve]

 

[gangzoom]

Who doesn't want a bigger battery with more range? BUT am a cheapskate, our orginal 60D X base price was £63k in the UK, current 100D X is £90k. Thats a 42% price premium for extra range we would use once every few months. There is no way I can justify that premium, but I can see why Tesla killed the 60D X, profit margins must have been barely existent.

Currently done a combined 22K in a 60 than 75 X and currently in 2nd winter. No issues at all with range. I could be tempted by a 130kWh X, however been a cheapskate means I will find it hard to justify spending lots of extra £££££ on essentially the same car and giving up 'free for life' SC for the sake of range we rarely use.

Equally I would rather stop fot a free 20 mintues SC on a roadtrip than do it nonstop and instead pay £10 for electricity - especially as electricity is getting more expensive.

To put it simply I love our 75D X, I just hope Tesla don't bump up prices too much with a range refresh.

 

[ecarfan]

The S/X order configuration web pages look very strange to me with only one battery size; that has never happened before in Tesla history, as far as I know. I expect that very soon (within days?) there will be at least two battery choices available, and I expect them to be significantly larger than the 75/100 choices we have become used to.

 

[SuitNtie]

The S/X order configuration web pages look very strange to me with only one battery size; that has never happened before in Tesla history, as far as I know. I expect that very soon (within days?) there will be at least two battery choices available, and I expect them to be significantly larger than the 75/100 choices we have become used to.

I agree that there will soon be 2 variants however I believe there will no longer be a number designation. I think they will go the route of the 3 and simply have an SR and an LR. Then in the future they can change the battery kwh size and not have to worry about a different model designation (like the 3).

 

[Pilot Steve]

I wonder what the range might be?. Also if the old 75 can be replaced with the new battery. We have 8 years infinite miles so a replacement should be possible.

 

[ecarfan]

I think they will go the route of the 3 and simply have an SR and an LR.

Agreed, and Elon posted a tweet last week saying that the S/X will be doing that.