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Storage boom: Victoria outstrips South Australia tender with 100+ proposals
The Victoria tender (20 MW / 80 MWh) and the South Australia tender (100/100) have both drawn very high levels of interest. Each about 100 proposals, with about 2/3rds of the Victoria proposals characterized as credible. VERY high levels of competition - I'm even more interested to see what the winning proposals will look like and be priced at.
Presumably there is very high overlap in who is making proposals to the two tenders, how competitive will Tesla be? How close are the competition? What will prices do later in the year in the next round of big projects which are surely in the wings (they won't ALL be in Australia!)
The Victoria tender (20 MW / 80 MWh) and the South Australia tender (100/100) have both drawn very high levels of interest. Each about 100 proposals, with about 2/3rds of the Victoria proposals characterized as credible. VERY high levels of competition - I'm even more interested to see what the winning proposals will look like and be priced at.
Presumably there is very high overlap in who is making proposals to the two tenders, how competitive will Tesla be? How close are the competition? What will prices do later in the year in the next round of big projects which are surely in the wings (they won't ALL be in Australia!)
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
I expect there can't be too much competition as the market grows, at least for a time. I think again, Tesla has a huge advantage here for awhile because they are the only ones I currently know of who are already building out the manufacturing capacity for the batteries.
Turns out most of the installers are using a fairly short list of battery suppliers.... so it gets interesting...
The Macquarie one?
Southern California Edison To Bring Online 50 MW Tesla Powerpack 2 Systems | Inside EVs
AES is another battery system supplier.
EDIT: Damn it, I _was_ right with AMS...
Sorry, AMS.
50 MW of new Tesla Powerpack 2 projects to be deployed for Southern California Edison
Acronyms hurt my head.
50 MW of new Tesla Powerpack 2 projects to be deployed for Southern California Edison
Acronyms hurt my head.
Looks like changes are coming to the Australian grid to make it more friendly to renewables and storage:
New rules flag big switch in energy markets to cheaper, smarter grid
Two particular changes:
- 5 minute settlement period (it's a huge change - read the article for details about what fossil energy producers are doing with a 30 minute settlement period)
- network change
The network change is a bit vague to me - the idea as I understand it is to permit local storage / micro-grid type solutions as an alternative to more poles and wires on the infrastructure side. The idea, and many storage side people have been pushing this, is that you can build a more resilient and lower cost network with some storage pretty close to where the electricity is being consumed, rather than putting up poles and wires to carry every bit of electricity from a plant somewhere far away.
Today the infrastructure folks aren't allowed to consider anything but poles and wires to satisfy their network requirements.
These changes aren't settled - they're in a comment period. From what I read around these proposed changes, the only substantive question is on timing. Consumers are starting to revolt (it's easy to see why). When a smelter decides it's cheaper to build their own power plant than buy power from the power company, you know there's a problem:
Sun Metals goes for bigger solar plant to hedge against energy costs
(The money quote "This is a large refining company that views solar as better alternative to their current power solution". Not included in the quote - solar built and owned by the refining company).
New rules flag big switch in energy markets to cheaper, smarter grid
Two particular changes:
- 5 minute settlement period (it's a huge change - read the article for details about what fossil energy producers are doing with a 30 minute settlement period)
- network change
The network change is a bit vague to me - the idea as I understand it is to permit local storage / micro-grid type solutions as an alternative to more poles and wires on the infrastructure side. The idea, and many storage side people have been pushing this, is that you can build a more resilient and lower cost network with some storage pretty close to where the electricity is being consumed, rather than putting up poles and wires to carry every bit of electricity from a plant somewhere far away.
Today the infrastructure folks aren't allowed to consider anything but poles and wires to satisfy their network requirements.
These changes aren't settled - they're in a comment period. From what I read around these proposed changes, the only substantive question is on timing. Consumers are starting to revolt (it's easy to see why). When a smelter decides it's cheaper to build their own power plant than buy power from the power company, you know there's a problem:
Sun Metals goes for bigger solar plant to hedge against energy costs
(The money quote "This is a large refining company that views solar as better alternative to their current power solution". Not included in the quote - solar built and owned by the refining company).
Here's an older article talking about how the 30 minute settlement rule is also a problem for putting a battery behind the meter at residential scale:
Battle royale brews over battery storage and control of energy markets
Battle royale brews over battery storage and control of energy markets
A summary of where things stand today in Australia around their energy grid, with links to other articles of how they got here. It's a pretty hopeful view of the world, even if it's going to be delayed by a few years getting really started.
Tide turns as solar, storage costs trump ideologues and incumbents
This article is linked from above (100% renewable grid is the cost effective option for Australia, not the "green"-but-expensive option):
ANU: Wind, solar and hydro grid cheapest option for Australia
Tide turns as solar, storage costs trump ideologues and incumbents
This article is linked from above (100% renewable grid is the cost effective option for Australia, not the "green"-but-expensive option):
ANU: Wind, solar and hydro grid cheapest option for Australia
The Aussie state of Victoria is coming back to the market for 2 battery storage tenders and a combined 100MWh of storage:
Victoria seeks two 20MW large scale batteries to be installed by January
Random question for the audience - are there any other news etc.. sites that people know about that are tracking and reporting on the battery storage industry? renew economy has proven excellent for learning about big scale storage in Australia - I'm wondering about elsewhere in the world.
It'd be ideal to have a single high quality news source for the world, but I suspect in practice we're going to need to monitor sites for different regions, some overlapping, if we want a better view into the big projects going out to big, that may be turning into Tesla revenue.
Lessee....100MWh = 100,000 KWh * $250/KWh = $25M
Not that it's in the bag for Tesla, but that's a lot of power packs and a nice bit of revenue for a business valued widely at $0.
Victoria seeks two 20MW large scale batteries to be installed by January
Random question for the audience - are there any other news etc.. sites that people know about that are tracking and reporting on the battery storage industry? renew economy has proven excellent for learning about big scale storage in Australia - I'm wondering about elsewhere in the world.
It'd be ideal to have a single high quality news source for the world, but I suspect in practice we're going to need to monitor sites for different regions, some overlapping, if we want a better view into the big projects going out to big, that may be turning into Tesla revenue.
Lessee....100MWh = 100,000 KWh * $250/KWh = $25M
Not that it's in the bag for Tesla, but that's a lot of power packs and a nice bit of revenue for a business valued widely at $0.
I'm keeping an eye out for word from South Australia about the awarding of their 100MW / 100 MWh energy storage tender - they had overwhelming expressions of interest, but I haven't yet seen an update about a specific solution being chosen and contracted yet.
I did bump into this today - on the face of it, it seems there is a price competitor:
http://www.eosenergystorage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/pricing-brouchure-2016-11-22.pdf
These folks are clearly stationary / utility storage only (possibly also a home storage solution in the future - I hope anyway), but they've got awfully nice prices ($250 /kWh for 1MWh, down to $160/kWh for 40MWh). The downside to the solution is that a 250 kWh module is 11' x 11' x 16'.
Products – Eos Energy Storage
While I agree with the general premise that space is a small issue at utility scale installation, I disagree that it isn't any issue at all
That's a LOT of physical real estate.
But the price is good and if you HAVE a lot of physical real estate, saving money on your energy storage might be a good use of that real estate.
The technology reminds me of the Aquion folks. In any case, it's good to see competition.
I did bump into this today - on the face of it, it seems there is a price competitor:
http://www.eosenergystorage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/pricing-brouchure-2016-11-22.pdf
These folks are clearly stationary / utility storage only (possibly also a home storage solution in the future - I hope anyway), but they've got awfully nice prices ($250 /kWh for 1MWh, down to $160/kWh for 40MWh). The downside to the solution is that a 250 kWh module is 11' x 11' x 16'.
Products – Eos Energy Storage
While I agree with the general premise that space is a small issue at utility scale installation, I disagree that it isn't any issue at all
That's a LOT of physical real estate.But the price is good and if you HAVE a lot of physical real estate, saving money on your energy storage might be a good use of that real estate.
The technology reminds me of the Aquion folks. In any case, it's good to see competition.
I'm keeping an eye out for word from South Australia about the awarding of their 100MW / 100 MWh energy storage tender - they had overwhelming expressions of interest, but I haven't yet seen an update about a specific solution being chosen and contracted yet.
I did bump into this today - on the face of it, it seems there is a price competitor:
http://www.eosenergystorage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/pricing-brouchure-2016-11-22.pdf
These folks are clearly stationary / utility storage only (possibly also a home storage solution in the future - I hope anyway), but they've got awfully nice prices ($250 /kWh for 1MWh, down to $160/kWh for 40MWh). The downside to the solution is that a 250 kWh module is 11' x 11' x 16'.
Products – Eos Energy Storage
While I agree with the general premise that space is a small issue at utility scale installation, I disagree that it isn't any issue at all
But the price is good and if you HAVE a lot of physical real estate, saving money on your energy storage might be a good use of that real estate.
The technology reminds me of the Aquion folks. In any case, it's good to see competition.
0.25 C-rate seems pretty typical. They say 75% efficiency for full depth of discharge. Anyone know how good 75% is and why they specify "full depth of discharge"?
The system requests should talk beyond first-day efficiency and sizing. They need to look at the out-years too, how much capacity systems will hold in years 2-10 and the average efficacy. 75% efficiency is a round-trip loss situation. Put in 100 kWh and take out 75 kWh when dumping the power to the grid. The r/t losses of earlier powerpacks was supposedly 18% or so when using 1 C charge/discharge and 15% at 1/2 C - if I have that right. Could be better, could be worse. Effectively you need to account for the power going in, what it will look like coming out and how fast the flow in and out will be. Every recharge of a battery has round-trip losses. A lifetime 75% efficiency is quite good considering long-term energy storage capacity losses over time. If you want a 100 kWh battery, best to install 120 kWh and cycle it from 10% to 90% SoC and watch the voltages so that the usable 100kWh on the way out is the effective capacity of the battery. It will take about 120 kWh to charge and 100 kWh coming out. Making batteries a net-energy user.
If you put in a 50 MWh system today, it will lose capacity annually from the 365+ cycles - unless it is only working as a frequency-response system. Which may mean thousands of micro-cycles per day or perhaps only a peak-demand response system which means 20-30 full cycles a year (hot afternoon summer peaks). Lifespan is based on a lot of things.
Just watched a cool Netflix documentary on the 1977 NYC Blackout. Called "American Experience: The Blackout". Nobody wants a blackout like that happening again. Batteries at substations back then could have held up enough power to keep the triggering effects of the ConEd substation shutdowns from taking out the five NYC boroughs.
If you put in a 50 MWh system today, it will lose capacity annually from the 365+ cycles - unless it is only working as a frequency-response system. Which may mean thousands of micro-cycles per day or perhaps only a peak-demand response system which means 20-30 full cycles a year (hot afternoon summer peaks). Lifespan is based on a lot of things.
Just watched a cool Netflix documentary on the 1977 NYC Blackout. Called "American Experience: The Blackout". Nobody wants a blackout like that happening again. Batteries at substations back then could have held up enough power to keep the triggering effects of the ConEd substation shutdowns from taking out the five NYC boroughs.
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The South Australia tender closed a month and a half ago:
Closed South Australian Grid-connected battery storage
Issued by Department of the Premier and Cabinet closed
31 Mar, 2017
South Australian Grid-connected battery storage
Expression of Interest
Tender State: Tender Closed
Tender Code: LCE040937
Category: Power Generation and Distribution Machinery and Accessories
When is the award? Times a wastin.
The South Australia tender closed a month and a half ago:
LCE040937
Closed South Australian Grid-connected battery storage
Issued by Department of the Premier and Cabinet closed
31 Mar, 2017
South Australian Grid-connected battery storage
Issued by Department of the Premier and Cabinet
Expression of Interest
Tender State: Tender Closed
Tender Code: LCE040937
Category: Power Generation and Distribution Machinery and Accessories
When is the award? Times a wastin.
They way I understand it from the series of articles I've read, the initial tender was to gauge interest and for companies to propose technical solutions to the problem. That is the tender which has closed and indicated a very high level of interest.
From there, they have already started a process to get prices for the options that look most promising - that's out now for bid, and the way I understand it, we should be hearing about the results and the winner of this contract "soon" (May? June?). I believe there is strong interest on the part of South Australia (a place I need to visit sometime in my life, now that I've spent so much time reading about Australia's energy grid
) to get the winner selected and installation started ASAP, and to have this capability built and on-line in time for the Australian summer (which I assume is offset with us northern hemisphere blokes by 6 months - so December ish).I don't have something more concrete, but now you know approximately everything I know (whether it's of high value or not
).Does that mean a new competitive, transparent "tender" or back room "negotiations"?
(I've been to Brisbane, Hobart, Melbourne and Sydney and hope to visit new friends from Adelaide around the time the new storage is commissioned. We spent the better part of Feb and Mar enjoying their company on an east Asia cruise.)
They way I understand it from the series of articles I've read, the initial tender was to gauge interest and for companies to propose technical solutions to the problem. That is the tender which has closed and indicated a very high level of interest.
From there, they have already started a process to get prices for the options that look most promising - that's out now for bid, and the way I understand it, we should be hearing about the results and the winner of this contract "soon" (May? June?). I believe there is strong interest on the part of South Australia (a place I need to visit sometime in my life, now that I've spent so much time reading about Australia's energy grid
I don't have something more concrete, but now you know approximately everything I know (whether it's of high value or not
There was a tweet from Jay Weatherill, or maybe Mike Cannon-Brookes that basically confirmed this. Obviously Tesla is in the final round ( as per Musk's tweet).
I think this is all above board and normal for this scale of government acquisition.
The way I think of it - round 1 was seeking after technical approaches to solving the problem, and getting input from private industry on what and how they would solve this. We can imagine Tesla saying something like "100MW / 100MWh worth of batteries", where some folks might have a 50MW/200MWh battery solution (slower discharge technically, so more batteries to get up closer to the desired power rating).
I imagine there are some pumped hydro proposals in there, though how they would get them built and operational in 6 months would make for some entertaining fiction
Anyway - lots of ideas came in (90+ proposals received apparently to this initial request).
Now that they have some technical proposals, they're going back with a smaller subset of those proposals and getting final bids. Those people are putting their full price proposal on the table (so many of these widgets, located at these locations, with this company contracted to do the installation, etc..). I figure there will be a fair bit of back and forth with the government at this level (for example - if an install location is somewhere a LONG ways away from anywhere people normally want to be, then it'll probably be more expensive to get the contractors there, and bidders need to know that before they bid).
Or at least - that's how this is all working in my head.
Think of this as some remedial education on the topic of frequency response for an electric grid (for those of us, like me, that don't already know this stuff ):
Managing frequency in a modern electricity system
I found this helpful to my own understanding of the grid - there's more going on in an electric grid than supply of kw and demand of kw. Frequency response is one of the additional things going on, and is a feature that has economic benefit. It's reasonable to believe that frequency response can be a service battery storage is particularly well suited to supply on an immediate reaction basis (if you look at the chart in the article closely, it's a graph with seconds on the x-axis; the whole event they are talking about starts and is concluded over a period of about 15 seconds).
):Managing frequency in a modern electricity system
I found this helpful to my own understanding of the grid - there's more going on in an electric grid than supply of kw and demand of kw. Frequency response is one of the additional things going on, and is a feature that has economic benefit. It's reasonable to believe that frequency response can be a service battery storage is particularly well suited to supply on an immediate reaction basis (if you look at the chart in the article closely, it's a graph with seconds on the x-axis; the whole event they are talking about starts and is concluded over a period of about 15 seconds).
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