Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

[neroden]

Flow batteries are definitely competitive for utility scale, but they are higher-maintenance. Moving parts. The vanadium ones are likely doomed (vanadium is too expensive; it's common but there's not much of a supply chain). But the zinc-iron ones will do OK.

They are not as suited as li-ion to instant-response or high-density-required applications, and the pumps basically make them undesirable for all small-scale applications. This means they're strictly in the utility space. And within that, they'll probably be focused on the multi-hour power shifting market, not the fast-reaction market.

Flow batteries might replace the role which we have often thought pumped-storage hydro would fill.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I believe both of the Rive brothers are now out of Tesla. Perhaps they'll move into a new enterprise that develops our next generation of "utilities", clearly the players we have today aren't going to cut it.

 

[renim]

I have been reading a little more about flow batteries in the utility space and they look very cost competitive. Did anyone here compare the economics of these vs powerpacks. Here is an example.

Flow battery developer ViZn Energy says it can pair solar and storage for 4¢/kWh

I'm more familiar with ZnBr than other flow batteries but a quick summary.

Flow batteries are technically fuel fuels. They are patented as fuel cells, not as batteries.
Their round cycle efficiency is typically around 60-70%, so normal for conventional batteries. much less than li ion at near 100%
Like theoretical fuel cells, great for energy, bad for power.
Unlike fuel cells, they are cheapish and easy to construct.
because they are liquid, lifespan is limited by other parts of the system, so can have great life spans.

ZnBr is basically a aqueous zinc plating but able to run in reverse, not rocket science.

FWIW, I doubt flow batteries will successfully compete with Li ion batteries in most applications, but I'm convinced that flow batteries will always be superior to H2 fuel cells in all terrestrial applications.

 

[tftf]

None of the competitors can match Tesla's capacity for large-scale projects soon.

10GW annually from Gigafactory 2, baby...

SolarCity’s solar Gigafactory will produce up to 10 GW/year under Tesla, says Elon Musk

Incredible.

PS: Unfortunately, Tesla's SEC filings only indicate 1GW. Must be a typo. I'm sure it's 10GW.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wow, I may need to go work there if it's going to be that central to the US renewable industry. That building across the street has a sweet pub in it and rugby clubs play on the field out back.

Not a bad day making solar panels for 8hrs then across the street for some beers and a rugby match. Wonder if there's a Tesla team yet? The possible names are limitless.

 

[EinSV]

@tftf
Just thought I'd quote your signature line for posterity since it is likely to change in the very near future.

Tesla's ramp from niche producer to 1M cars a year and a mass-market Model3 at $35k base is a financial suicide mission. The SCTY merger is the newest implosion catalyst. Your opinion may differ.
​

And yes, my opinion does differ:

Shorting TSLA is a financial suicide mission.​

 

[adiggs]

Queensland (state in Australia) is opening up registration for a 100MW energy storage reverse auction. This is the expression of interest stage so that potential future bidders can get details about what specifically will be going up for bid and what they'll need to supply to meet requirements (that sort of stuff). Actual bidding will come later.

Queensland opens registrations for 100MW energy storage auction


It looks like this system will be setup as a reverse auction. It looks to me like the winning bidder will be supplying stored electricity at the lowest price.

I'm curious to see if Tesla will be bidding this system directly, or whether an investor / system builder will be bidding the system using Tesla supplied batteries and other system components. In the former case, Tesla ends up spending money today and earning it back over the life of the system. In the latter, Tesla gets paid cash up front and somebody else takes care of the financing (as well as collecting the income stream over time).

My off the cuff preference is for Tesla to be a supplier to the winning bidder, rather than bidding this directly. I'm a big cash-on-the-barrel-head guy these days

 

[tftf]

Regarding these projects in Australia.

Did Panasonic and Samsung recently announce a merger?

Tesla’s giant new Powerpack project in Australia will use battery cells made by Samsung

What happened to all those Panasonic cells shooting off the lines in Nevada for ESS projects?

Clue me in why Tesla is using third-party cells when it operates the "largest battery factory in the world" according to Elon Musk:

Tesla Gigafactory is already producing more batteries than any other factory in the world, says Elon Musk

 

[ggr]

I don't think I am violating any confidences here... I spoke to a Tesla Solar guy on the phone yesterday, our Solar Tile roof is scheduled for installation in Nov/Dec time frame (yes, this year...). We still don't have a detailed quote or system design, so it may yet never happen, but we're early adopters in a good area for them so we are right behind the employee installations, which are apparently happening now.

 

[adiggs]

I don't think I am violating any confidences here... I spoke to a Tesla Solar guy on the phone yesterday, our Solar Tile roof is scheduled for installation in Nov/Dec time frame (yes, this year...). We still don't have a detailed quote or system design, so it may yet never happen, but we're early adopters in a good area for them so we are right behind the employee installations, which are apparently happening now.

Looking forward to learning more from you as you go through the process. I figure I'm likely to be a v2 adopter of Solar Roof - more like 3-5 years down the road than sometime 'soon', but I'm interested now in any and all details about how it works and how the installation goes.

 

[ggr]

An interesting read about Kauai, utility vs. off grid.
Hard Lessons in Living Off the Grid

 

[kenliles]

The world’s best Dota 2 players just got destroyed by a killer AI from Elon Musk’s startup — The Verge

 

[Skotty]

An interesting read about Kauai, utility vs. off grid.
Hard Lessons in Living Off the Grid

This is what I nag about.

There's nothing wrong with the grid. Grid is good. It's how the utilities are generating their power that can be bad. They just need to start producing clean energy. In the meantime, too many don't care, and that's why I have to install my own rooftop solar in Missouri. I have zero desire to go off grid. But I also have zero desire to support an industry that is still burning coal and promoting a can't do attitude about renewable clean energy.

 

[Dondix]

Looking forward to learning more from you as you go through the process. I figure I'm likely to be a v2 adopter of Solar Roof - more like 3-5 years down the road than sometime 'soon', but I'm interested now in any and all details about how it works and how the installation goes.

I'm excited to see how the solar tiles are accepted. I know I'm going to be a fan just from the looks of them. Keep us informed please.

 

[Skotty]

I'm excited to see how the solar tiles are accepted. I know I'm going to be a fan just from the looks of them. Keep us informed please.

The solar tiles look great. Pretty exciting stuff. But I fear it could be years before it's realistically available in all states.

However, there is a potential good side (and general concern some might not have considered) regarding the lack of availability of the tiles. HOA's can't really use it as an excuse to reject traditional rooftop solar until such time as the product is realistically available. I could see some HOA's deciding that home owners who want solar can only do so using the tiles, but I don't think that will fly until the product is actually obtainable.

 

[EinSV]

Primus (flow storage start-up backed by Kleiner Perkins and others) announced that it entered into a production deal with a Foxconn subsidiary to target the storage market in China. Primus Power strikes deal with Apple manufacturer Foxconn to target Chinese market

Worth keeping an eye on.

 

[generalenthu]

My wife who doesn't pay attention to these sort of things started asking questions about the upcoming eclipse like:

What's the big deal to the grid if the sun is out for a few minutes?

What do you mean there is no storage on the grid?

I am realizing this upcoming eclipse is going to be a massive free advertisement for TE.

 

[Skotty]

My wife who doesn't pay attention to these sort of things started asking questions about the upcoming eclipse like:

What's the big deal to the grid if the sun is out for a few minutes?

What do you mean there is no storage on the grid?

I am realizing this upcoming eclipse is going to be a massive free advertisement for TE.

That's certainly the narrative that should be pushed. Some in opposition to renewable energy will ignore grid storage technology and sell the eclipse as exposing a fatal world ending weakness in renewables. If I see this on Twitter or Facebook, I'll make sure to politely make note of TE and related technology. Good for renewables supporters to see too, as sometimes they seriously handicap themselves by struggling to demonstrate how to match up demand and production without grid storage technology.

 

[adiggs]

Looks like Tesla is in the driver seat for another 40 MWh utility scale storage system.

Why Tesla Is Interested In Offshore Wind | OilPrice.com

This one in the US. Timing is more like 2020 than this year, and I'd expect the storage component to happen closer to having turbines installed and spinning, than this early date.

 

[EinSV]

The U.S. DOE's National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) has issued a report suggesting that a significant percentage of US businesses could see an economic benefit from using storage to reduce electricity demand charges (basically charges based on a business' peak demand rather than actual usage)

The report estimates "that there are nearly 5 million commercial customers in the United States who can subscribe to retail electricity tariffs that have demand charges in excess of $15 per kilowatt (kW), over a quarter of the 18 million commercial customers in total in the United States." The report also notes that because of demand charges, storage may make sense even in areas with low average electricity rates.

Unfortunately, the report doesn't take the next step of trying to connect the dots to estimate payback periods for different use cases, and instead notes that whether storage will make economic sense is case-specific. But this seems like an interesting angle to factor into the equation.

I don't know enough about how demand charges fluctuate month to month but $15/kw/month is $180/kw/year so it seems like many businesses could see a reasonable payback period for installation of Powerwalls or Powerpacks just for demand charges, especially where incentives are available to sweeten the pot.

article summarizing the report is here: Energy storage could have significant impact on US businesses’ energy costs ‘in nearly every state’
study is here: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68963.pdf