TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
So getting paid 150% of outlay in year 1, then having regulators essentially outlaw the technology you're disrupting is.......bad?
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Sure they do. Solar alone(even without storage) displaced peak supply in Germany knocking every single utility into bankruptcy. They were too reliant on profits at peak which quickly disappeared when solar hit just 4% of total supply.
Then we'll start in Australia(check), then move to islands, Europe, or anywhere else with a less corrupt wholesaling system. Eventually US ratepayers will insist on something approaching an open market where storage can crush all the legacy tech currently doing the job.
Australia has different layers for Grid (Network), Generation, and Retail, with a national energy market.
That makes it easy for Tesla to become a generator and/or retailer in Australia.
My understanding is in the US Utilities own and maintain the grid, it is harder for independent generators and retailers to participate.
Is that understanding correct?
Dr. J
Active Member
In Texas, which has its own grid, 85% of the market (the portion not served by municipally-owned or co-op utilities) is deregulated with independent generators, retail electric providers, and regulated transmission and delivery utilities (TDUs) which own and maintain the wires. So, here it could work. Other states with electric utility deregulation could be similar.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Half of SolarCity'a plan back in 2015 was to aggregate individual homeowners excess solar capacity to sell on the wholesale market.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That was Lyndon Rive's big mission. A shame he can't be working on this within Tesla now.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Why Enphase Stock Is Rocketing Higher After Earnings
Enphase stock price rises 18% today on Q1 report. Notably revenue (from solar inverter sales) is up 105% y/y. Competitor SolarEdge is also up 15% on this news and will release Q1 results later today.
This is evidence of strong demand for residential and commercial solar. Enphase has faced delays in bringing their solar battery systems to market. They will try to get the going in the summer. This is generally good new for Tesla Energy. As demand for residential and commercial solar rise, it will increasingly be packaged with batteries.
Edit. Oh, I forgot to mention that both Enphase and SolarEdge have been under attack from shorts. So some of the surge today in stock prices could be shorts covering. I suspect many of the same idiot that short Tesla are also going after these stocks too.
Enphase stock price rises 18% today on Q1 report. Notably revenue (from solar inverter sales) is up 105% y/y. Competitor SolarEdge is also up 15% on this news and will release Q1 results later today.
This is evidence of strong demand for residential and commercial solar. Enphase has faced delays in bringing their solar battery systems to market. They will try to get the going in the summer. This is generally good new for Tesla Energy. As demand for residential and commercial solar rise, it will increasingly be packaged with batteries.
Edit. Oh, I forgot to mention that both Enphase and SolarEdge have been under attack from shorts. So some of the surge today in stock prices could be shorts covering. I suspect many of the same idiot that short Tesla are also going after these stocks too.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Introducing Whole Home Backup
Just learned for a Twitter promotional that Sunrun is offering Tesla Powerwalls with their solar installations. I like seeing solar installers act as Tesla distributors. I wonder what this means for Tesla Energy as a solar installers. Could it be the Tesla is quietly pivoting away from installation work to just focusing on manufacturing Solar Roofs, Powerwalls and solar panels, and other components? I would be fine with this as investor. The work of marketing, sales and installation of solar systems is critical to the success of Tesla Energy. Instead TE can focus on product innovation and manufacturing.
Just learned for a Twitter promotional that Sunrun is offering Tesla Powerwalls with their solar installations. I like seeing solar installers act as Tesla distributors. I wonder what this means for Tesla Energy as a solar installers. Could it be the Tesla is quietly pivoting away from installation work to just focusing on manufacturing Solar Roofs, Powerwalls and solar panels, and other components? I would be fine with this as investor. The work of marketing, sales and installation of solar systems is critical to the success of Tesla Energy. Instead TE can focus on product innovation and manufacturing.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
It's an interesting qiestio
Buy Sunrun for $1.3B and fire all the salespeople, you got an instantly profitable enterprise. They currently lose ~$50M a quarter, but that's all sales cost. Tesla's customer acquisition strategy ain't got much sales cost. Worth keeping an eye on for sure.
Shrewd move to sell hem a high margin product they can install at a loss.
Very interesting move as we should see Sunrun and Tesla bump heads over the next year battling for solar supremacy in the US market. My ideal situation was for Tesla to buy Sunrun around the end of this year to bridge the logistics and SERVICE gaps at Tesla Energy's residential wing.
Buy Sunrun for $1.3B and fire all the salespeople, you got an instantly profitable enterprise. They currently lose ~$50M a quarter, but that's all sales cost. Tesla's customer acquisition strategy ain't got much sales cost. Worth keeping an eye on for sure.
Shrewd move to sell hem a high margin product they can install at a loss.
In the US, there are Generator companies or "Generation" and there are distribution companies or "Utilities".
Both are separate and regulated differently. Ratepayer committees within each state work with these companies when they need more money or need to make large cost-based changes that will need to adjust ratepayer programs. In CA there is some work happening by the groups to actually cut back on the benefits solar PV offers to ratepayers due to the impacts to the utilities. It has to happen where regulation doesn't put the core grid out of business - it has to be balanced and well planned out, not just "hey - yay! we put them out of business! Everyone celebrate!" It has to be a blend of benefits to everyone.
Regarding peaker plants - maybe they are becoming outdated. But also there cannot be any slowing of the renewables - because every year, renewables already installed will have slow-eroding efficacy. From 1/2 to 1 percent less output per year. Then add batteries which absorb 10% of the power generated - you end up with less renewable energy being consumed in the end. So, peaker plants cannot just magically go away, but they can be phased out or replaced by new tech such as rarely-used large battery banks at reasonable costs. Peaker plants are not needed daily - and they don't need to be built if they are not needed. Balanced management and slow change will replace some of them. I doubt they all go away completely. Otherwise, we can replace them with basic rolling brownouts and blackouts (lower voltage and/or segments being shut down). What helps is large users of power such as cement companies, universities and hospitals can be islanded - if they have their own battery storage. Turn that on, cut the switch to the grid and the need for peaker plants is diminished. Distributed tactical storage is fine when used well and not abused like daily cycling. If we want to celebrate what batteries will do - they will the long-planned replacement of peaker plants for those rare days (maybe 15-20 days a year in some places like So. California or whatnot) where afternoon and evening energy rises high and peakers were/are needed. Solar is winding down just when the demand is going up. Only way to make that work is "a peaker of some sort". Conservation - also works. But then you cannot "sell" a conservation product other than maybe LED lighting or heat pumps instead of certain inefficient AC units. I like LED solutions for street lighting, indoor lighting (cuts cooling costs in buildings). Companies like CREE are big in larger-scale replacements of such - delivering lighting over Cat-5 DC power rather than 120V AC power.
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It's an interesting qiestio
Very interesting move as we should see Sunrun and Tesla bump heads over the next year battling for solar supremacy in the US market. My ideal situation was for Tesla to buy Sunrun around the end of this year to bridge the logistics and SERVICE gaps at Tesla Energy's residential wing.
Buy Sunrun for $1.3B and fire all the salespeople, you got an instantly profitable enterprise. They currently lose ~$50M a quarter, but that's all sales cost. Tesla's customer acquisition strategy ain't got much sales cost. Worth keeping an eye on for sure.
Shrewd move to sell hem a high margin product they can install at a loss.
Pretty sad to be celebratory about "getting rid of those employees". What if it was your job? Your family? Especially now with 25 Million USA jobs alone being cut. Did you celebrate that too?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Nonsense. Utilities are given extraordinary privilege to make(theoretically) 10% on top of their costs to do a monopoly job. Producers provide supply.
When Germany hit 4% solar a handful of years ago it destroyed the profits of every large utility that made money supplying peak generation. Solar hitting 30-50% of supply at peak ruined that. They all went bankrupt. German courts worked it out and they reemerged as proper grid services companies.
You can't do this process slowly, there are too many vested interests and too many corrupt politicians and regulators. Renewables plus battery storage are better and cheaper, we need to invest in the future not subsidize the disrupted to maintain relevance.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Has to be done, it's an unsustainable business model. They're losing tens of millions a quarter, and will continue to do so until changes are made. Same situation SolarCity was in a few years back.
Residential solar can't scale with all these sales groups holding it back. The other side of this will have infinitely more people employed. The sooner we get there the better.
I do think batteries can replace most peaker plants our cause the peaker plants that are there to run less frequently.
Li-ion Batteries can be:-
- Grid scale
- Home batteries
- V2G EVs
Say 5pm-12pm...
Something needs to cover midnight to dawn, but sometimes the wind blows overnight in some paces.
For seasonal variation and midnight-dawn + contingency, some form of longer duration storage needs to fill the gap.
This could be:-
- Conventional Hydro
- Pumped Hydro
- Flow batteries
- Hydrogen.
All I'm saying here is there is no artificial limit on doing more.
It is more likely existing peakers will run less, when some become expensive to maintain and operate due to infrequent use, they will retire.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I see peakers quickly transitioning to "topper offers" for grid and decentralized storage. In many ways proving to be a wonderful bridge to our sustainable future. They won't make any money.....but we'll let them be a bridge.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Article about a 100 MW / 400 MWh Tesla Megapack project going starting construction soon in Ventura County:
Strata Solar Replaces Peaker Plants With Massive New Tesla-Powered Energy Storage Facility | CleanTechnica
Strata Solar Replaces Peaker Plants With Massive New Tesla-Powered Energy Storage Facility | CleanTechnica
Strata Solar announced this week it has completed the pre-construction development work on one of the largest stationary energy storage facilities in the US . The new 100-megawatt, 400-megawatt-hour facility will be installed in Ventura County, where it will offset some of the peak power generating capacity lost by the shutdown of the Mandalay and Ormond power generation facilities in Oxnard, California, over the last year and a half.
Construction of the new facility is slated to commence in July, and it is expected to be fully operational in 2021.
Construction of the new facility is slated to commence in July, and it is expected to be fully operational in 2021.
In order to facilitate the power within the batteries, what is the input power? Overnight baseload? Peaker plants bring in source fuel and create output power through some sort of generator. Batteries make no power out of the ether, so is this just borrowing power from more overnight generation or is there at least 100MW of solar being installed in the field to match the fuel the 400 MWh? Since it is considered peaker, it doesn't need to fuel every night - except for during summer days where you can have consecutive heat-driven high AC draw loads. Now, what are Mandalay and Ormond? Peaker only or baseload? Batteries alone will not officially "replace" baseload without a matching input source created of wind or solar or hydro. Otherwise, the batteries will just take baseload power created elsewhere overnight and create more demand of that overnight load. It all "looks good" but add up where the source fuel comes from. I would not totally celebrate a battery power plant unless it has a matching RE power source added to fuel it.
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