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Tesla energy can make Supercharging free for Model 3...

Discussion in 'Tesla Energy' started by Joer293, Aug 25, 2016.

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The Tesla energy choice provider idea is:

  1. great

    2 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. terrible

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. needs more work

    4 vote(s)
    66.7%
  1. Joer293

    Joer293 MODEL X P100DL

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    History:
    With the introduction of the 2nd generation Tesla vehicles (Model S & X) customers needed a way to refuel daily and travel long distances, reliably, effortlessly and with convenience. Public AC level 2 chargers were rare, slow, inconvenient, unreliable and arguably expensive. While public stations have improved, they still fall short of the sustainable transport mission. Tesla's solution to that problem was the Home charger, Supercharger and destination charger program. Customers initially paid ~$2,000 USD for supercharger access and $1,200 USD (plus installation labor) for a 20kw High power wall charger. For the vast majority of Gen 2 customers this problem was now solved. With mass production, costs began to drop. Home chargers are now $450 USD (plus labor) and Supercharging dropped enough to include it in the base price.

    New Problem:
    Enter the 3rd generation vehicles (Model 3 & Y)
    How does Tesla continue to do all of the above AND make it appear to be "FREE" to the customer? The problem has evolved, and so we need to adapt the solution to fit the new problem.

    Solution:
    (note: While I know this concept will work in the USA, it may need to be adapted for countries with differing regulations and financials.)
    1. Tesla Energy must become an Energy Choice provider in significant marketshare.
      A. Supercharging remains included with 2nd gen models, and a rebate is offered for choosing Tesla Energy choice.
      B. Supercharging is an option for 3rd gen models, a manufacturer rebate will be offered to offset half the supercharging option cost if they sign a term contract with Tesla Energy choice.
    2. Solar City
      A. Replace the existing Tesla loyalty incentive, with a HPWC installed by solar city electricians. AND the other half of the supercharging option cost for gen 3 customers.
      B. Customers total electric bill will automatically be lower than just Tesla energy choice alone, due to reduced grid distribution costs.
      C. Install home energy Power Walls for free in strategic homes that are net meter grid tied. Offering a slightly cheaper Tesla energy choice kWh rate to the customer in exchange.
    3. Tesla supercharger stations will be upgraded with
      A. Solar canopy where it makes sense.
      B. Tesla power packs.
      .1. small power packs in areas that don't allow back feeding, just enough to offset the peak demand charge during supercharging.
      .2. bigger packs used in areas with net metering, allowing the station to feed the grid when cost effective. (sign up as a peaking plant electrical generator facility)

    Q. How does Tesla make money here if everything is given away free?
    A. Peak and trough cost differential is big bucks on the grid. Store energy when it's cheap, and sell when it's expensive. Tesla energy already sells batteries to customers who do this. With Tesla's ability to vertically integrate the solar generation, the battery storage, and the vehicle charging logistics, Tesla stands to profit. Tesla energy would develop and maintain grid management software. Today's grid software is laughable, so much waste. Tesla's top engineers would be able to control both supply (battery storage at charging stations, businesses and homes) and demand (car charging and battery charging) Anyone who doesn't know the multi-billion US dollar value in this sector, should watch JB's youtube videos explaining the electrical grid economics.

    Q. While this would handle the sustainable portion, why isn't Tesla doing this already?
    A. It's simple, they don't have the money up front, so lets have the market give it to them.
    1. Solar city already sells bonds, just expand this program.
    2. And, create a Tesla motors Preferred Stock series A, with no voting rights. Create a fixed price buyback to keep the value stable, with quarterly dividend payments. Those dividend payments would be a set fraction of the profit that Tesla makes from buying and selling energy (and solar credits to a lesser extent). There is a huge amount of capital available from the 401k/retirement brokerages that would invest in a stable value, stable return preferred stock. The same huge bucket of long term investor money that is unwilling to invest in an unstable stock such as Tesla common shares. Preferred shares are generally insulated from market swings.

    I can obviously expand on this concept, the details. I tried to explain how Tesla has the unique opportunity to profit from something that's never been practical before the Solar City merger and Tesla technology. IF Tesla does all of this, they can offer supercharging for free to all new customers, and profit at the same time.
     
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  2. Buddy

    Buddy Member

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    I didn't see you mention that some super chargers have 1-2 hour waits daily. This is with the model X still being new. Imagine when the 3 comes out!
    This is my biggest concern as I travel a lot and I don't want to spend 2-3 hours at a SpC station each stop.
     
  3. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    Not sure poll is right vehicle here as it appears you are looking for qualitative feedback.

    I'm not a grid expert, though I know many. Clearly you are confident you have found a nugget. Can you please dumb it down a bit for people like me? I'd also like to understand how tesla energy would deploy grid management software. Wouldn't utilities have to participate? Don't they currently "own" that area? Not sure they'd easily accept their grid being managed by a new entrant. Plus, there are a ton of regulations on utilities. How does tesla participate without being hampered by regulation?
     
  4. Joer293

    Joer293 MODEL X P100DL

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    Tesla already has a plan for this. (Even if it may seem they don't have it under control.) They track every detail about every single vehicle and charging wait times. Building more stalls is obvious, so is building more strategic stations. Also, improving the equipment at some stations is critical. Not all are 120kw capable, for example Bethesda Mall in Maryland is a known low output supercharger due to the grid. Batteries would help, but Tesla decided to just decommission it, replace with HPWC's, and build a larger station a dozen miles away at a more convenient Mall.

    I know Californians may not like to hear this, but there are many superchargers which never have any wait times. One thing that appears to be missing from Tesla's long wait time solution, is addressing the why are some stations so busy? I'm sure you wouldn't be surprised to learn that a growing number of BEV owners are using superchargers for reasons they weren't designed for.
    1. ICE owners, that believe they must charge at a station per habit. Tesla is training technicians to explain home charging and destination charging, as well as providing local electrician contact info. Also sending out the controversial "supercharger abuse" notices to them. My concept above would be to offer "free" home charger installation.

    2. Cost of electricity is too damn high (California for example). This is where home charging costs so much, that it's worth the customers time to sit in line at a "Free" electricity station. Tesla energy choice, solar panels, and grid software have the ability to make it cheaper to charge at home. CA's tiered electricity plan, off peak to help electric car charging is a mediocre compromise at best.

    3. City living and renters. (NYC for example) Tesla knows where those cars are, and what choices they will make to charge. Tesla will have to combat this with more strategic superchargers, and destination charging programs. If Tesla provided "free" destination charger and/or solar + power wall installs, more condos and garages would agree to install them.
     
  5. Buddy

    Buddy Member

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    Well spoken, I agree.
     
  6. Joer293

    Joer293 MODEL X P100DL

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    Basically, electric companies in the USA do 3 things, generate power, distribute that power over power lines and have a legal contract department. The vast majority do not employ software engineers nor do they design and develop their own hardware. Everything they use is outsourced to a vendor. The take away is simple, if Tesla Energy offers for sale new grid management software that saves even 1% of money over the next vendor, every electric company will switch contract vendors.

    Tesla has two things that the competing vendors don't have. Supply control (battery storage) and demand control (car charging). Today the competing vendors rely on what amounts to big hair dryers to protect the grid from melting down. 50% of electricity generated is wasted, to protect the grid meltdown. Competing vendors also have tiered and time of use electricity plans. These plans help indirectly control the demand. Competing vendors also have thermostat, HVAC and water heater cycling devices, which do directly impact the 2 biggest demand categories. Tesla has something they don't, a way to control car demand across an entire state all at once. Something as simple as dropping all cars from 40 amp charge to 39 amps is unnoticeable to a customer, but is worth millions to an electric company. Lawyers negotiate electricity costs every hour, even though they bill you one rate per month.

    As for regulations in the US, Tesla will have to hire a legal contract department. The one thing about the USA, is there is a never ending supply of lawyers to navigate and get the best deal on regulations and contracts. Oh, and energy lawyers know they can charge more if they save the company even more money than what they charge.
     
  7. Joer293

    Joer293 MODEL X P100DL

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    #7 Joer293, Aug 25, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2016
    I just realized a couple more things Tesla needs to do to reduce charging wait times. Since a growing number of people will not care about how the technology works, they just want it to work.

    4. Improve the range prediction accuracy of navigation by adding in significant real time forecasted variables, like traffic speed, headwind, air pressure, temperature (predicted heat/AC use) rain, elevation, towing load, tire drag. They can also tell you to speed up or slow down to arrive at the perfect time slot around other drivers charging. Driving faster, can improve your recharge speed by arriving with a lower state of charge. Tesla has these variables, just need to integrate them into the range forecast. I think it is BMW who already has something similar.

    5. For city folks who must supercharge, provide them with a best availability window. Showing when supercharger wait times are the lowest so they can plan their day around it. Maybe a lunch time charge is better than a breakfast charge, etc. Or, preempt the user to charge fully on Thursday when Tesla forecasts high supercharger demand from Friday beach traffic travelers.

    6. universal bump notification system, Plugshare is good, but not universal. Dashboard stickers suck, so do QR codes. What Tesla has the ability to do, is notify people who are past 90% charged, and just trickle charging the last few %, that others are waiting, or that another driver is expected to arrive in 5 minutes, go move your car and finish the trickle charge later.

    I've said before that Apple or Google should introduce forecasted traffic. In most places, rush hour is a very predictable schedule. Yet, both Apple and Google maps tell you what the current traffic conditions are and expect you to leave right now. They should be telling you what traffic will be like when you get to that part of your trip. And also telling you that, hey if you wait 3 hours before starting the trip, you will actually arrive at your destination only 10 minutes later. Some experienced drivers already do this in their heads. (If I leave at 5pm, I'll sit in traffic for 3 hours, or leave at 8 and get there almost at the same time with less traffic.) Google analytics could easily handle this task. It's not much different then what they do for website traffic already. Tesla knows all the expected arrival times of vehicles going to superchargers, they could offer navigation suggestions to keep traveling drivers organized. (no need to drive fast, you'll just be waiting longer in line, speed up to get there before 10 other travelers are expected to arrive, etc).
     
  8. YBT

    YBT Member

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    OP: wonderfully lucid plan. +1 from me too.
     

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