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  • The final cut of TMC Podcast #34 is available now with topics timestamped. We covered Tesla's rollercoaster prices, Toyota pushing junk science, Mike's new Model 3, Optimizing track mode for snow driving, FSD V11 apparently coming by the end of this week, and more. You can watch and check out the chat replay on YouTube.

Tesla EV Tax Credits coming back?

If pressed to cancel, is it better to re-order for an added $2250-3250 in new order fees and price hikes, for the CHANCE that the $8000 credit will not be retroactive and of course actually passes. Basically paying an extra $3250 for the chance to save $4750. Then there's also the benefit of a 2022 VIN (higher resale value?), and the possibility of getting an Austin build.
I would probably take delivery of the MY even if no credit. Place new order for MY if credit passes. Once received, sell existing MY. You are taking a risk on resale value plummeting more than the credit, but given MY and other Tesla wait times, you will like receive a premium if you sell the MY because they can take delivery immediately.
 
Ha yes, me too! Wonder if Tesla is just switching all US deliveries to January and sending the rest elsewhere. Better for Tesla to enact that strat now than later, still have time for those deliveries to arrive overseas.
Possibly. I saw an article today that stated 14 ships carrying Teslas are in route to Asia and Europe. I'm not sure how that compares to normal operations and some departed from China, but it still sounds like a ton of cars.
 
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tangible1

Active Member
Jul 8, 2021
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SoCAL
I would probably take delivery of the MY even if no credit. Place new order for MY if credit passes. Once received, sell existing MY. You are taking a risk on resale value plummeting more than the credit, but given MY and other Tesla wait times, you will like receive a premium if you sell the MY because they can take delivery immediately.
It's quite a gamble to take delivery of a MY, order another, and sell the original later. I too have considered it.
It's a gamble on resale value and wait times. Oh, and Rebate risks....

I think a better strategy is to place a new order. But ONLY IF you can WAIT.
The breakeven, using 11/4 pricing updates, for a base MY vehicle is about $6250 in PoS credit vs taking a base configuration MY in 2021.
Note that's a Point of Sale credit calculation, not a tax rebate. Rebates are a mess to calculate as every individual can be different.

RESALE VALUE
The current MY is going to be a poor resale candidate compared to a 4680-powered MY that will also weigh 440lbs LESS than than one delivered now.
I actually think the battery matters less than the weight reduction. Weight buys range, handling, performance - and also body panel consistency.
The megacasts the new MY uses will be lighter and more dimensionally consistent than welded stamped steel pieces, yielding a higher quality construction.

WAIT TIME
The MY wait times are going to decline quickly once Austin gets rolling by mid-year.
Yet that is predicated on 4680 battery production reaching commercially viable yields - the current 70-80% is not sustainable.
What's available for Tesla 4680 batteries are cherry-picked from test runs at Kato Road. That can't last.

The BIG REACH is what $$$ Rebate amount any Federal Legislation might settle on, AND it's Terms (PoS Credit, or Tax Rebate).
I can't imagine that the 12,500 gross amount, 8,000 Tesla amount, is going to stand.
I can see 8500 and 4500. But that's just my WAG.
Either way, it's a huge cost transfer from the Feds and expensive as hell, but the Dems can't NOT do something, so something WILL happen.

A DIFFERENT IDEA
Maybe sell your delivery position. A nominal fee of say, $1000 ??? For those that can't wait, a car NOW has value vs renting, etc.
But, that idea has social media shaming risks.....
 
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Budshark

MYP|Wht|Blk|OD 10/20|EDD 2/1-2/5 VIN: 3643xx
Oct 18, 2021
339
563
St. Louis
Struggling today again. Not a good look for the Dems. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Tie up now is moderates want a score/numbers from the Congressional Budget Office. And the CBO says that’s 2 weeks away. So if they don’t get past this, there’s almost no chance they resolve before Dec 3 extension expiration. And that means they will have to shift to another extension or let some funding run out in December. Which will be crap.

So vote today, or extend deadline pushing votes out further, or do nothing and let funding expire to try to force a vote in December. Either way, the groundhog says 4 more weeks of uncertainty on Tesla tax credits.
 
Looking like the House bill won't go through until Thanksgiving at the earliest...moderate dems want to see the CBO report.

"But at least one final hurdle remains: there's no cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and a handful of centrist budget hawks are demanding that they have one before they'll support the legislation.

That could be awhile. The source said the CBO is understaffed, and would likely need two weeks to complete its score once the legislative language is finalized, pushing the process close to Thanksgiving.

There are at least five holdouts, according to the Democratic source: Reps. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), Jared Golden (Maine), Ed Case (Hawaii), Kathleen Rice (N.Y.) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.).

Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), a moderate Blue Dog, is also voicing skepticism."
 
I remember seeing this thread back when it was started in February. I figured, "I don't care, I want the car now, I'll get it now." Well, I got it in March and ordered it at the end of February when the LR AWD was $48,990 -- so I guess I did better than if I had waited for tax credits considering the same configuration starts at $57,990 now - a $9,000 price increase.
 
It's quite a gamble to take delivery of a MY, order another, and sell the original later. I too have considered it.
It's a gamble on resale value and wait times. Oh, and Rebate risks....

I think a better strategy is to place a new order. But ONLY IF you can WAIT.
The breakeven, using 11/4 pricing updates, for a base MY vehicle is about $6250 in PoS credit vs taking a base configuration MY in 2021.
Note that's a Point of Sale credit calculation, not a tax rebate. Rebates are a mess to calculate as every individual can be different.

RESALE VALUE
The current MY is going to be a poor resale candidate compared to a 4680-powered MY that will also weigh 440lbs LESS than than one delivered now.
I actually think the battery matters less than the weight reduction. Weight buys range, handling, performance - and also body panel consistency.
The megacasts the new MY uses will be lighter and more dimensionally consistent than welded stamped steel pieces, yielding a higher quality construction.

WAIT TIME
The MY wait times are going to decline quickly once Austin gets rolling by mid-year.
Yet that is predicated on 4680 battery production reaching commercially viable yields - the current 70-80% is not sustainable.
What's available for Tesla 4680 batteries are cherry-picked from test runs at Kato Road. That can't last.

The BIG REACH is what $$$ Rebate amount any Federal Legislation might settle on, AND it's Terms (PoS Credit, or Tax Rebate).
I can't imagine that the 12,500 gross amount, 8,000 Tesla amount, is going to stand.
I can see 8500 and 4500. But that's just my WAG.
Either way, it's a huge cost transfer from the Feds and expensive as hell, but the Dems can't NOT do something, so something WILL happen.

A DIFFERENT IDEA
Maybe sell your delivery position. A nominal fee of say, $1000 ??? For those that can't wait, a car NOW has value vs renting, etc.
But, that idea has social media shaming risks.....
Yes, agreed. Not sure if this applies in your case, but if you are selling an ICE car to purchase, I would factor that into the timing as well, since those car values will continue to decline if just waiting.

Also, there is value is taking delivery of the Model Y right away. I waited an extra year to order the SR M3 earlier this year, got really lucky with a nice NJ rebate and lower price point, net $10,000 lower than today's price. Still, I wish I had it a year ago to use for the whole year. It really does open up road trip possibilities and entertainment. Considering a cross country road trip now, would never have done that with ICE.
 
I remember seeing this thread back when it was started in February. I figured, "I don't care, I want the car now, I'll get it now." Well, I got it in March and ordered it at the end of February when the LR AWD was $48,990 -- so I guess I did better than if I had waited for tax credits considering the same configuration starts at $57,990 now - a $9,000 price increase.
so you are saying hindsight is 20/20
 
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tangible1

Active Member
Jul 8, 2021
1,407
1,211
SoCAL
Yes, agreed. Not sure if this applies in your case, but if you are selling an ICE car to purchase, I would factor that into the timing as well, since those car values will continue to decline if just waiting.

Also, there is value is taking delivery of the Model Y right away. I waited an extra year to order the SR M3 earlier this year, got really lucky with a nice NJ rebate and lower price point, net $10,000 lower than today's price. Still, I wish I had it a year ago to use for the whole year. It really does open up road trip possibilities and entertainment. Considering a cross country road trip now, would never have done that with ICE.
Point taken on now vs later, but I can wait. And I've already waited 5 months. I care, but less so much. And I think the price increases are over. They're tax rebate related.
Tesla missed my opportunity window of late August / early Sept when Registration was expiring and the EDD showed timely delivery.
Once past that, and all the major (not minutiae) changes coming, I'll wait.
My ICE vehicle now has more value in my garage (and inexpensive insurance and registration costs) than not having it.
Trade value is minimal at 340K miles (mostly highway), but I've gotten more than 100% of my money's worth !!
 
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I talked to my SA today and he said that if I delay my delivery, I will be put at the of the line... my EDD has pushed back 3 times and now is 11/7 - 12/5 ... I think I will let it to delay by itself and will xing my fingers so that my delivery is in Jan 2022...

Is this what you guys have been doing?? Is it true what my SA said ?

If you don't accept your delivery, are you put at the end of the line???
 
I talked to my SA today and he said that if I delay my delivery, I will be put at the of the line... my EDD has pushed back 3 times and now is 11/7 - 12/5 ... I think I will let it to delay by itself and will xing my fingers so that my delivery is in Jan 2022...

Is this what you guys have been doing?? Is it true what my SA said ?

If you don't accept your delivery, are you put at the end of the line???
If you don’t accept delivery and try to delay by more than 30 days, they could cancel your order. Whether they will or not is an open question, but why take the chance. Tesla will be facing a flood of people trying to reject their cars this month and they could always decide to take a hard line. This is why I put my order on hold until Jan 1 today. If my order gets pushed out a few months, so be it. I would rather have the $8K in my pocket. I doubt I’ll go to the back of the line.
 
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If you don’t accept delivery and try to delay by more than 30 days, they could cancel your order. Whether they will or not is an open question, but why take the chance. Tesla will be facing a flood of people trying to reject their cars this month and they could always decide to take a hard line. This is why I put my order on hold until Jan 1 today. If my order gets pushed out a few months, so be it. I would rather have the $8K in my pocket. I doubt I’ll go to the back of the line.
How did you hold it until Jan 1st ???
 
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