"Tesla expects to enable full self-driving by the end of 2017"

[someguy in KC]

The thread title is a quote from this Wikipedia article on autopilot:

Tesla Autopilot - Wikipedia

Yes, I realize that Wikipedia is written by anyone. I am not a Tesla owner but like the idea of my car driving me to work every day. I am curious as to what this forum's membership believes or expects as to when the full Level 5 self-driving capability will be turned on for Autopilot software on Tesla Model S or X?

 

[OBX John]

The thread title is a quote from this Wikipedia article on autopilot:

Tesla Autopilot - Wikipedia

Yes, I realize that Wikipedia is written by anyone. I am not a Tesla owner but like the idea of my car driving me to work every day. I am curious as to what this forum's membership believes or expects as to when the full Level 5 self-driving capability will be turned on for Autopilot software on Tesla Model S or X?

I believe it will be incremental, area by area, road type by road type, situation by situation, rather than an actual date for Level 5 to be "turned on". I see AP2 coming online in the next week or so, then slowly increasing capabilities for the next couple of years.

 

[lolachampcar]

On the record
Not a snowball's chance

 

[msnow]

The thread title is a quote from this Wikipedia article on autopilot:

Tesla Autopilot - Wikipedia

Yes, I realize that Wikipedia is written by anyone. I am not a Tesla owner but like the idea of my car driving me to work every day. I am curious as to what this forum's membership believes or expects as to when the full Level 5 self-driving capability will be turned on for Autopilot software on Tesla Model S or X?

Full level 5??? Since it's totally dependent on local, state, country regulatory approval (assuming the hardware proves capable which is a HUGE assumption) 10-20 years.

 

[lunitiks]

Doesn't L5 really demand that fully autonomous vehicles are allowed in all countries, ciities and roads in the world? If not, your L5 vehicle must be restricted to certain countries, cities and roads - thus making it L4, not L5

 

[yak-55]

The thread title is a quote from this Wikipedia article on autopilot:

Tesla Autopilot - Wikipedia

Yes, I realize that Wikipedia is written by anyone. I am not a Tesla owner but like the idea of my car driving me to work every day. I am curious as to what this forum's membership believes or expects as to when the full Level 5 self-driving capability will be turned on for Autopilot software on Tesla Model S or X?

This is based on the typical Tesla vague promises ... they mean some "level 5 like" capability "somewhere" by "some time in 2017". If necessary, they will use their closed test track to assert they have fulfilled their (marketing) promise "in 2017".

IMO: Your (low maintenance) Tesla purchased today will be worn out before it will be able to drive you to work every day anywhere in the US. Don't pay for anything from Tesla you can't experience on a test drive before they take your money.

 

[larmor]

On the record
Not a snowball's chance

Unless the snowball is in upstate NY, in the dead of winter, with lake effect snow warning....

 

[ecarfan]

I am curious as to what this forum's membership believes or expects as to when the full Level 5 self-driving capability will be turned on for Autopilot software on Tesla Model S or X?

That Wikipedia article needs some reality-based editing.

It seems clear to me that the Tesla FSDC option is definitely not becoming operation in 2017. By the end of 2018 for some specific and very limited well-mapped areas? Who knows.

 

[whitex]

At this time Tesla is not even willing to extend the bumper to bumper warranty on the about to be delivered AP2 car until FSD is fully operational (I asked). That would be an amazing "put your money where your mouth is" marketing gesture if they really thought they'll get there in 12 months, or even 36 months. Include bumper-to-bumper warranty for 15K miles per year until whatever year I can have the car drop me off at the airport and meet me on the other coast few days later (with Tesla taking all liability for any damage the car may cause along the way). I suspect they'd be making many more sales if they did that (heck, I'd buy 2 AP2.0-FSD cars).

 

[lunitiks]

Please elaborate

 

[Drone Flyer]

Dre

I believe it will be incremental, area by area, road type by road type, situation by situation, rather than an actual date for Level 5 to be "turned on". I see AP2 coming online in the next week or so, then slowly increasing capabilities for the next couple of years.

Dream on!
Several years away, minimum. Cars being manufactured now with AP 2 hardware will probably, in the first five years of the vehicle's lifetime, will not be able to use most of the proposed functionality of what AP 2 promises to offer.
This isn't Tesla's fault, it will be the fault of bereaucratic jurisdictions around the world that will cause the delay.
You know how that works!
Might as well hold on to your AP 1 car, if you have one, and wait 6 or 7 years or so and see what happens then.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Dre

Dream on!
Several years away, minimum. Cars being manufactured now with AP 2 hardware will probably, in the first five years of the vehicle's lifetime, will not be able to use most of the proposed functionality of what AP 2 promises to offer.
This isn't Tesla's fault, it will be the fault of bereaucratic jurisdictions around the world that will cause the delay.
You know how that works!
Might as well hold on to your AP 1 car, if you have one, and wait 6 or 7 years or so and see what happens then.

While this is probably true in many ways, I think there is one notable difference here: In the meanwhile AP2 probably will evolve greatly with a driver present. So while a driverless FSD may be years (or more) away depending on the jurisdiction, FSD-like EAP (say, Level 3 at any speed) might be much closer and require less regulatory upheaval.

 

[Garlan Garner]

12 months to go? I believe it can happen.

 

[RDoc]

Keep in mind the "Elon Time Dilation Effect" when contemplating any time-like values related to Tesla or other Elon related endeavors. He does really great stuff, but also emits a strong reality/time/capability distortion field.

 

[3Victoria]

Well, since we have had recent evidence of Hell freezing over, I expect great things in this next year ... amazing things ... mind blowing -- including better autonomous driving than we think possible. Will be interesting to see who's predictions come true!

 

[Wanabee]

I see that most people who do not understand exponential technology consistently give
distant timeframes for its deployment.

 

[whitex]

I see that most people who do not understand exponential technology consistently give
distant timeframes for its deployment.

I see some people are drinking their coolaid.

 

[Canuck]

Dream on! Several years away, minimum. Cars being manufactured now with AP 2 hardware will probably, in the first five years of the vehicle's lifetime, will not be able to use most of the proposed functionality of what AP 2 promises to offer. This isn't Tesla's fault, it will be the fault of bereaucratic jurisdictions around the world that will cause the delay. You know how that works!

No I don't know "how that works". I don't even know what you're talking about or what you mean by "bereaucratic (sic) jurisdictions around the world that will cause the delay." What does the bureaucracy in another country have to do with allowing self-driving cars in the US or Canada? The answer is nothing at all. We don't need to wait for Iran or Italy.

Might as well hold on to your AP 1 car, if you have one, and wait 6 or 7 years or so and see what happens then.

While 12 months may be somewhat optimistic for full autonomous, 6 - 7 years is absurd for self-driving. The number one cause of death for teenagers is motor vehicle accidents. 94% of motor vehicle accident deaths (35,200 last year alone) are human caused. Motor vehicles deaths increased by the largest percentage in 50 years last year. We are going backwards when it comes to motor vehicle safety. Self-driving cars, with a driver in the seat, are not on drugs or alcohol, suffer mental or physical conditions, road rage, and list goes on and on.

There's a reason why the President wrote an Op-Ed on this issue:

Barack Obama: Self-driving, yes, but also safe

Why some people think we need to be drinking Koolaide to think cars will be self-driving in 12 months makes no sense to me when we currently have the technology to have AP2.0 do today pretty much everything a human can do, but much safer than the vast majority of humans. The position you take issue with reads: "Tesla expects to enable full self-driving by the end of 2017." It doesn't say that the driver will be removed from the seat while the vehicle self-drives. I don't need my car to drive itself without me in it. But with self-driving and a human in the seat overseeing it we will be much safer on the roads. Now can you see the difference between AP1.0 and 2.0 when this happens?

As a parent of three teenagers, my number one fear in this world is that they will die in a motor vehicle accident. This a real concern of mine because it is backed up by statistics. If we could dramatically prevent cancer with currently available technology do you think the regulators would hold us up?

My only concern is that more people with your mindset make up the regulatory bureaucracy than those with my mindset. If so, they may hold back regulatory approval. That's where my fear lies and not with the technology itself.

 

[whitex]

No I don't know "how that works". I don't even know what you're talking about or what you mean by "bereaucratic (sic) jurisdictions around the world that will cause the delay." What does the bureaucracy in another country have to do with allowing self-driving cars in the US or Canada? The answer is nothing at all. We don't need to wait for Iran or Italy.



While 12 months may be somewhat optimistic for full autonomous, 6 - 7 years is absurd for self-driving. The number one cause of death for teenagers is motor vehicle accidents. 94% of motor vehicle accident deaths (35,200 last year alone) are human caused. Motor vehicles deaths increased by the largest percentage in 50 years last year. We are going backwards when it comes to motor vehicle safety. Self-driving cars, with a driver in the seat, are not on drugs or alcohol, suffer mental or physical conditions, road rage, and list goes on and on.

There's a reason why the President wrote an Op-Ed on this issue:

Barack Obama: Self-driving, yes, but also safe

Why some people think we need to be drinking Koolaide to think cars will be self-driving in 12 months makes no sense to me when we currently have the technology to have AP2.0 do today pretty much everything a human can do, but much safer than the vast majority of humans. The position you take issue with reads: "Tesla expects to enable full self-driving by the end of 2017." It doesn't say that the driver will be removed from the seat while the vehicle self-drives. I don't need my car to drive itself without me in it. But with self-driving and a human in the seat overseeing it we will be much safer on the roads. Now can you see the difference between AP1.0 and 2.0 when this happens?

As a parent of three teenagers, my number one fear in this world is that they will die in a motor vehicle accident. This a real concern of mine because it is backed up by statistics. If we could dramatically prevent cancer with currently available technology do you think the regulators would hold us up?

My only concern is that more people with your mindset make up the regulatory bureaucracy than those with my mindset. If so, they may hold back regulatory approval. That's where my fear lies and not with the technology itself.

Canuck,
I think you're confusing the potentially great benefit with how difficult it is to solve this problem. We all know a cure for cancer would save lives, but it doesn't mean one is coming in 12 months.

So first, let's clear up the FSD, you say it will require a driver always overseeing it. So, how do you understand "car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family" (quote from Tesla design studio)? If a driver is required, how is it different than using a car without AP?

Ok, accepting your "there will always be driver watching over". First, do you really think a drunk driver watching over AP2 will reduce deaths as compared to drunk driver driving themselves? I could think of situations where a drunk driver would just crash before getting themselves onto a highway, but with AP2 they will and when AP2 fails and requires intervention, damage will be much greater on a highway at 70 mph than crashing into a fence on the way out of the parking lot. Second, your sig says you don't have AP1. I do. I have to tell you, I voluntarily stopped using AP1 except for very few situations (stop and go highway traffic being 99% of them) because I realized that because it does so well in mundane lane-keeping (in well-traveled areas) that the brain just disengages. When the situation arises where the human needs to intervene, the response time is much higher than if the human was driving, The best I can compare driving with AP1 is like driving with a student driver who occasionally experiences seizures and/or passes out - it actually takes more mental effort to watch over such a driver than driving yourself. AP2 will be better than AP1 (I'm hoping for blind spot detection to actually work) but as long as you require the driver to take over at any time, the benefit is limited if any -it may actually cause accidents when encountering constructions zones or other hard to navigate situations, or by driving into opposing traffic as AP1 has been known to do, because the driver didn't take over in time. In summary, fully autonomous driving in any situation is extremely hard problem, creating a demo video is 5% there, not 95% as some people would believe. Until humans are removed from the equations as a requirement, they will always cause accidents, with AP possibly more than without (we don't know yet). See a bunch of stuff from google why their approach is to not even have a steering wheel in autonomous cars.

Then there is cost. At $8K per car I think we may get more benefit as far as accident avoidance out of people getting free tires than AP assist. Apparently bald tires are a significant cause for accidents today. Does that mean we shouldn't develop AP, absolutely not, but if the goal is simply to reduce accidents, there are more efficient ways to spend the money (more bang for the dollar).

Lastly, there will be an issue with people's perception. There are approximately 100 people dying every day in car accidents in the USA. If everyone suddenly switched to AP, and cars now killed 25 people every day, that would cause a big backlash. Today when a driver causes an accident, that driver is responsible. If cars are autonomous (no driver), the parent of the child killed by such as car is going to after the company. If 25 families of the 25 (instead of 100 mind you) people are suing Tesla per day, it's not long before Tesla dies, or legislature gets involved and bans AP completely. Look how much press a single accident gets when AP is mentioned, think many per per day. And do notice, that while there are some unavoidable accidents, some will in fact be the fault of the AP system, since nothing is ever perfect. If one of your kids got killed by a driver who fell asleep after a long shift at work, you may be more forgiving than if the accident was caused by a software bug introduced with the latest easter egg feature, or because there was mud on the camera.

 

[Canuck]

Canuck,
I think you're confusing the potentially great benefit with how difficult it is to solve this problem. We all know a cure for cancer would save lives, but it doesn't mean one is coming in 12 months.

You totally lost me here. There is no cure for cancer coming in 12 months. There are videos of Tesla's AP2.0 driving itself (with a driver in the seat to oversee only). So I don't get your point.

So first, let's clear up the FSD, you say it will require a driver always overseeing it. So, how do you understand "car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family" (quote from Tesla design studio)? If a driver is required, how is it different than using a car without AP?

Ok, accepting your "there will always be driver watching over".

You can't use quotation marks around words I never said. I never said there will "always" be a driver in the seat. This thread is about the wiki quote: "Tesla expects to enable full self-driving by the end of 2017" and people taking issue with that statement. I said "While 12 months may be somewhat optimistic for full autonomous" it is not for self-driving. There is a difference. There's no way the regulators will go directly to autonomous. The system will need to prove itself with a driver in the seat first. I see that happening with 12 months. The ride sharing, etc. will come later.

First, do you really think a drunk driver watching over AP2 will reduce deaths as compared to drunk driver driving themselves?

Yes, of course. I am really surprised you don't. It seems so obvious to me.

AP2 will be better than AP1 (I'm hoping for blind spot detection to actually work) but as long as you require the driver to take over at any time, the benefit is limited if any -it may actually cause accidents

You've been tainted badly by AP1.0. Throw what you know about AP out the window. The lack of hardware and slow processing power are nothing at all like AP2.0. To suggest AP2.0 will cause more accidents that humans who cause 94% of deaths is ludicrous to me.

Lastly, there will be an issue with people's perception. There are approximately 100 people dying every day in car accidents in the USA. If everyone suddenly switched to AP, and cars now killed 25 people every day, that would cause a big backlash.

And therein lies my fear -- as I said above -- which is that more people with your type of mindset make up the regulatory bureaucracy than those with my type. I still remember the backlash over mandatory seat belts and my grandfather saying he wouldn't wear one and be trapped in a vehicle after an accident -- that he'd rather be thrown clear. To this day, people die from seat belts that would have otherwise survived a crash. But he ended up wearing once once he realized the statistics were more in his favour if he wore one. Using your numbers, of course I'd take the 25 AP caused death vs 75 human caused. That's 50 families a day that are not going through one the most traumatic and emotionally painful events we humans can ever experience -- the loss of a loved one. The fact that you even pose this question is troubling. But you are not alone, as shown just in this thread, and my fear is that people with your mindset are on the regulatory body and are more concerned about "backlash" than statistical facts.