Tesla Factory: 3/29/2017 vs. 3/22/2016

[engle]

I was told the actual production stamping machines were used to stamp the Model 3 body panels using pre-production models that can only stamp up to ~100 parts. Then I believe they were hand assembled.

About how long does the delivery process take for the eighteen cars?[/QUOTE]

So the Model 3 line is not up and running at all? Were the release candidates they recently build not supposed to be almost completely done on the final production line?!?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I was told the actual production stamping machines were used to stamp the Model 3 body panels using pre-production models that can only stamp up to ~100 parts. Then I believe they were hand assembled.

Can you clarify whether you believe that stamped body panels were welded/bonded by hand? I am asking because my impression after looking at the leaked picture of workers next to the M3 body in while ago was ththat area behind them looked more as being used for final assembly, rather than welding/bonding stampings into the body-in-white.

 

[MitchJi]

I think that asking guide questions that are of interest could produce some results, but it is hit or miss process.

So once again, there is more of an art then science to extract material information from a factory tour.

Thank you very much!

 

[Krugerrand]

The tolerances on alpha/beta are off because even with CAD, you can't predict how much "bounce back" each steel (or aluminum) body panel will exhibit after it's stamped.

Just FYI, correct term is 'spring back'.

Different materials have different amounts of spring back. Shape will matter, as well as how much drawing/stretching you're doing. Basically you have to draw/stretch the material more than the outcome you want to accommodate the spring back. That'll be addressed in the dies when they're made and trialed.

 

[dennis]

Can you clarify whether you believe that stamped body panels were welded/bonded by hand? I am asking because my impression after looking at the leaked picture of workers next to the M3 body in while ago was ththat area behind them looked more as being used for final assembly, rather than welding/bonding stampings into the body-in-white.

I visited the factory in late December. At that time both the body-in-white and final assembly areas designated for the Model 3 were devoid of any production machinery. As a result I have been attempting to tamp down any notion that the Model 3 production line is in operation.

What we heard from Elon was that release candidate was produced mostly using production tooling. To me that means that the dies used to stamp the body parts were created to the production specification, but not necessarily capable of production volumes. The bodies would have to be hand welded and the car hand assembled because there is no production line yet.

I was excited to hear from the OP that they have made tons of progress on the Model 3 production lines in the 3 months between my visit and his visit. It makes me optimistic that in the next 3-4 months (i.e. by July) Tesla will be ready to begin Model 3 production using both production tooling and the actual production lines.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I visited the factory in late December. At that time both the body-in-white and final assembly areas designated for the Model 3 were devoid of any production machinery. As a result I have been attempting to tamp down any notion that the Model 3 production line is in operation.

What we heard from Elon was that release candidate was produced mostly using production tooling. To me that means that the dies used to stamp the body parts were created to the production specification, but not necessarily capable of production volumes. The bodies would have to be hand welded and the car hand assembled because there is no production line yet.

I was excited to hear from the OP that they have made tons of progress on the Model 3 production lines in the 3 months between my visit and his visit. It makes me optimistic that in the next 3-4 months (i.e. by July) Tesla will be ready to begin Model 3 production using both production tooling and the actual production lines.

The question is whether they made zero progress in three month between end of December and end of March. We do not have clarity on this question, but my point is that we can't say definitively that body assembly line has zero functionality at this point. In fact, my feeling is that if this is true, there is little chance of them launching the production just four months from now in July.

I think that the logical way to install equipment is to start with areas that have complete automation, as they require more time for debugging. If my assumption is true, it is reasonable to conclude that equipment for body-in-white production line installation is way ahead of the equipment installation for final assembly area.

I am trying to get some clarity/information on the above, but so far I did not see any information that either confirm or contradict my point.

 

[engle]

Just FYI, correct term is 'spring back'.

Different materials have different amounts of spring back. Shape will matter, as well as how much drawing/stretching you're doing. Basically you have to draw/stretch the material more than the outcome you want to accommodate the spring back. That'll be addressed in the dies when they're made and trialed.

Thanks for the correction!

It's one of the things I love about this forum when I have time to read or post. There are a myriad of experts in almost every human endeavor imaginable!

Another recollection from yesterday's factory tour is the guide claimed that a subcontractor is building the Model 3 production line to Tesla's spec. Perhaps he meant installing the robots and mechanisms that will move the vehicles along? I'd imagine TSLA engineers will program the robots...

 

[dennis]

The question is whether they made zero progress in three month between end of December and end of March. We do not have clarity on this question, but my point is that we can't say definitively that body assembly line has zero functionality at this point. In fact, my feeling is that if this is true, there is little chance of them launching the production just four months from now in July.

I think that the logical way to install equipment is to start with areas that have complete automation, as they require more time for debugging. If my assumption is true, it is reasonable to conclude that equipment for body-in-white production line installation is way ahead of the equipment installation for final assembly area.

I am trying to get some clarity/information on the above, but so far I did not see any information that either confirm or contradict my point.

Imagine you are tasked with installing the Model 3 production lines (BIW and Final Assembly) to be able to ramp to 5000 cars/wk in 2017 and 10,000 cars/wk in 2018 - 2x to 4x the current production rate at Tesla. Don't you think it would be sub-optimal to your goal to try to produce 100-200 release candidate vehicles 3 months in advance of your deadline?

I am also reminded that 9 months ago Kuka said it was going to be a challenge to get the robots for the Model 3 installed on Tesla's timeline but that they were going to try. When you are under the gun there is only one goal and there is no room for nice-to-haves.

 

[schonelucht]

The question is whether they made zero progress in three month between end of December and end of March.

Very little quantitative information. But the OP was clearly talking about 'a beautiful sight' with robots all over the place while @dennis is talking about an empty area just 3 months earlier. That rules out the 'zero progress' option (together with just basis common sense, unless for those who believe Fremont is a Potemkin village as well). Still will be a very tight squeeze : 3 months to get the remaining installation done. I don't think we have any good information on how achievable that is. Except management narrowing down the ramp schedule in a way that projects confidence.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Imagine you are tasked with installing the Model 3 production lines (BIW and Final Assembly) to be able to ramp to 5000 cars/wk in 2017 and 10,000 cars/wk in 2018 - 2x to 4x the current production rate at Tesla. Don't you think it would be sub-optimal to your goal to try to produce 100-200 release candidate vehicles 3 months in advance of your deadline?

I am also reminded that 9 months ago Kuka said it was going to be a challenge to get the robots for the Model 3 installed on Tesla's timeline but that they were going to try. When you are under the gun there is only one goal and there is no room for nice-to-haves.

Not only I think that it would not be sub-optimal to produce 100-200 release candidates 3 month in advance of launch of Model 3, I think it is essential. The whole purpose of the release candidate is to test actual production lines that will be used for the normal production run, isn't it? It takes time to test drive these early release candidates to reveal any flaws and then work through needed modifications in the production process.

Do not take me wrong, I do not think that it is clear one way or another, and trying to seek more information. You seem to be convinced that release candidates were not produced using any equipment on the body-in-white production line and that where our opinions differ.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Very little quantitative information. But the OP was clearly talking about 'a beautiful sight' with robots all over the place while @dennis is talking about an empty area just 3 months earlier. That rules out the 'zero progress' option (together with just basis common sense, unless for those who believe Fremont is a Potemkin village as well). Still will be a very tight squeeze : 3 months to get the remaining installation done. I don't think we have any good information on how achievable that is. Except management narrowing down the ramp schedule in a way that projects confidence.

You took my sentence out of the context. Here is what I said:

The question is whether they made zero progress in three month between end of December and end of March. We do not have clarity on this question, but my point is that we can't say definitively that body assembly line has zero functionality at this point.

I was talking about 3 month progress in the sense of some functionality of body assembly line.

 

[gavine]

I was merely asking you a question, and you provided me with an answer. Which I appreciate.

Questions aren't always innocent and can put someone on the defensive. What if I went up to someone and said "why are you so fat/ugly/smelly/etc.?". They would be upset. Can I then just say "I was merely asking a question"?